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← Back to GamesNov 18, 2023Week 12
BaylorBaylor
17
-Final
42
TCUTCU
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

TCU by 14.8

Home Win Probability

TCU 79%

Market (Bovada)

TCU -13

Edge: TCU -13 (1.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 18, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BaylorBaylor
737017
TCUTCU
014141442

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-714-1021-1728-1735-1742-17
TCUBaylor

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYPUNT513ydTO548ydTD1169ydDOWNS1683ydPUNT33ydTD540ydDOWNS962ydTD287ydFG1144ydEND1-3ydTD981ydTD775ydTD983ydDOWNS925ydTD850ydDOWNS46ydTD131ydDOWNS716ydDOWNS720ydEND634yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Baylor and TCU
StatisticBaylorTCU
Passing21-3126-33
Pass Yards199431
Rush Yards148100
Total Yards347531
Turnovers01
3rd Down5-149-11
Penalties1-94-35
Possession33:2826:32

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Baylor
passing
Blake Shapen
20/30, 197 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Dominic Richardson
17 CAR, 66 YDS
receiving
Drake Dabney
4 REC, 77 YDS
defense
Matt Jones
1 TFL, 1 PD
TCU
passing
Josh Hoover
24/29, 412 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Emani Bailey
16 CAR, 53 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jared Wiley
7 REC, 178 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 5 yds to the BAY 39

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.95

Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Richard Reese

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the BAY 48

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the BAY 47

4th & 8Punt+21 yds

Palmer Williams punt for 43 yds , JP Richardson returns for 21 yds to the TCU 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.60

Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 17 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.77

Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 11 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.66

Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 24 yds to the BAY 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 6 yds to the BAY 2

2nd & 2Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+19 ydsPPA -4.93

Emani Bailey run for 19 yds to the BAY 31 Emani Bailey fumbled, recovered by BAY Caden Jenkins No Huddle-Shotgun Bailey,Emani rush middle for 19 yards loss to the BU21 fumbled by Bailey,Emani at BU04 forced by Lanz,Cooper recovered by BU Jenkins,Caden at BU21 Jenkins,Caden return 10 yards to the BU31 (Coleman,Brandon).

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the BAY 36

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the BAY 40

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.98

Josh Cameron run for 2 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the BAY 48

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.87

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Jordan Nabors run for 8 yds to the TCU 38

2nd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA -0.05

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 7 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.33

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 21 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 10 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Jack Stone kickoff for 65 yds , Major Everhart return for 21 yds to the TCU 44 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (DJ Rogers) to the TCU 11

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TCU 12

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.80

Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 10 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.03

Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 13 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TCU 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Josh Hoover pass complete to Emani Bailey for 5 yds to the TCU 41

3rd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.53

Josh Hoover pass complete to Emani Bailey for 14 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JoJo Earle

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the BAY 43

3rd & 8Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.36

Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 16 yds to the BAY 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Cam Cook run for 8 yds to the BAY 19

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Cam Cook run for no gain to the BAY 19

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.27

Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the BAY 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Major Everhart run for 3 yds to the BAY 12

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 6 yds to the BAY 6

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Emani Bailey run for no gain to the BAY 6

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.13

Savion Williams run for no gain to the BAY 6

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 3 yds to the BAY 9

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.23

Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the BAY 9

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.

4th & 7Punt+18 yds

Palmer Williams punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAY 40 , JP Richardson returns for 18 yds to the BAY 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 6 yds to the BAY 34

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

Emani Bailey run for no gain to the BAY 34

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.00

Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 6 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the BAY 27

2nd & 9Rushing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +3.15

Emani Bailey run for 27 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.68

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 12 yds to the BAY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 8 yds to the BAY 47

2nd & 2Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.09

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 26 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.18

Dominic Richardson run for 12 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the TCU 11

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the TCU 9

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TCU 8

4th & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.57

Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the TCU 13

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Emani Bailey run for 6 yds to the TCU 19

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+81 ydsPPA +6.46

Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 81 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 8 yds to the BAY 33

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Blake Shapen run for 7 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.12

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for no gain to the BAY 40

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.12

Dawson Pendergrass run for 11 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TCU 46

3rd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.42

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 15 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Jordan Nabors run for no gain to the TCU 31

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the TCU 29

3rd & 8Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.37

Blake Shapen sacked by Damonic Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 31

4th & 10Field Goal Good+48 yds

Isaiah Hankins 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+28 yds

Jack Stone kickoff for 65 yds , Major Everhart return for 28 yds to the TCU 28

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.10

Josh Hoover sacked by Matt Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 25

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Jack Stone kickoff for 65 yds , Major Everhart return for 19 yds to the TCU 19

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the TCU 21

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JP Richardson

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.61

Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 11 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 9 yds to the TCU 41

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.04

Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +1.65

Josh Hoover pass complete to Trent Battle for 41 yds to the BAY 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Trent Battle run for no gain to the BAY 13

2nd & 10Penalty-15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete short right to Robinson,Jaylon PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Richardson,JP) 15 yards from BU13 to BU28. NO PLAY.

2nd & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jaylon Robinson

3rd & 25Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +5.62

Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 28 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Blake Shapen run for 15 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 42

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Blake Shapen run for 7 yds to the BAY 49

3rd & 1Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.14

Blake Shapen pass complete to for no gain to the BAY 49

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.11

Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +2.63

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 48 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Blake Shapen run for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Jack Stone kickoff for 65 yds , Major Everhart return for 17 yds to the TCU 17

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete short right to Rogers,DJ broken up by Lemear,Devin PENALTY TCU Illegal Shift 5 yards from TCU17 to TCU12. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 3 yds to the TCU 15

2nd & 12Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +3.73

Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 41 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Savion Williams run for 9 yds to the BAY 35

2nd & 1Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA -0.22

Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 10 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

Emani Bailey run for no gain to the BAY 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.61

Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for no gain to the BAY 25

3rd & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.30

Josh Hoover run for 22 yds to the BAY 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JoJo Earle

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Josh Hoover run for 3 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Blake Shapen run for no gain to the BAY 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 2 yds to the BAY 27

3rd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.25

Blake Shapen run for 13 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 42

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.67

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 9 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the TCU 48

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the TCU 49

3rd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

4th & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Dawson Pendergrass

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the TCU 46

2nd & 14Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.05

Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 25 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Emani Bailey run for no gain to the BAY 29

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the BAY 31

3rd & 12Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.87

Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 15 yds to the BAY 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.36

Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 14 yds to the BAY 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Major Everhart

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Trey Sanders run for 2 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 3 yds to the BAY 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh Cameron

3rd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 3 yds to the BAY 31

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.05

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drake Dabney

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.84

Emani Bailey run for 31 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the BAY 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the BAY 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the BAY 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the BAY 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 4 yds to the BAY 43

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.28

Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the BAY 41

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Major Everhart

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the BAY 40

3rd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.27

Chandler Morris pass complete to Blake Nowell for 17 yds to the BAY 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Corey Wren run for 1 yd to the BAY 22

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.38

Cam Cook run for 1 yd loss to the BAY 23

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Major Everhart

4th & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -2.54

Chandler Morris pass complete to Jack Bech for 2 yds to the BAY 21

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.14

Dominic Richardson run for 9 yds to the BAY 30

2nd & 1Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.24

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 8 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the BAY 44

2nd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.73

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Gavin Yates for 2 yds to the BAY 46

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.36

Sawyer Robertson run for 3 yds to the BAY 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the TCU 45

Situational Analysis

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
50%
28 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
17%
6 plays
42%
12 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
29%
7 plays
4th
100%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

TCU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
50%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
40%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
80%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play