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← Back to GamesNov 11, 2023Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Kansas State by 29.4

Home Win Probability

Kansas State 95%

Market (Bovada)

Kansas State -21

Edge: Kansas State -21 (8.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 11, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BaylorBaylor
766625
Kansas StateKansas State
211417759

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-728-735-735-1338-1345-1952-1959-25
Kansas StateBaylor

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KSBAYKSBAYBAYKSBAYKSBAYKSBAYBAYKSBAYBAYKSBAYKSBAYBAYKSBAYKSBAYKSBAYKSBAYKSTD1281ydTD572ydTD856ydTD2-3ydPUNT33ydTD978ydDOWNS4-22ydTD12ydPUNT1330ydPUNT728ydTD316ydDOWNS814ydPUNT37ydEND1-2ydPUNT417ydFG962ydTD372ydTD973ydTD414ydDOWNS513ydDOWNS45ydDOWNS1145ydPUNT33ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT35ydTO36ydTD338ydTD1077ydEND19yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Baylor and Kansas State
StatisticBaylorKansas State
Passing23-4721-34
Pass Yards247268
Rush Yards85183
Total Yards332451
Turnovers40
3rd Down4-174-12
Penalties4-455-42
Possession32:0127:59

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Baylor
passing
Blake Shapen
22/45, 253 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Dominic Richardson
17 CAR, 89 YDS
receiving
Drake Dabney
4 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Kansas State
passing
Will Howard
19/29, 235 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
DJ Giddens
18 CAR, 115 YDS
receiving
Ben Sinnott
3 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 7 yds to the KSU 26

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Will Howard pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.39

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 8 yds to the KSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the KSU 43

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.98

Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 13 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.88

DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the BAY 33

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Will Howard pass incomplete

3rd & 1Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.60

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 8 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the BAY 22

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the BAY 18

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.89

Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.39

Dominic Richardson run for 15 yds to the BAY 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.37

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 19 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds to the KSU 32

2nd & 4Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.30

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 19 yds to the KSU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 13 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 11 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the BAY 42

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Will Howard pass incomplete

3rd & 7Penalty+15 yds

HOWARD, Will pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Jayce thrown to the BAY10. PENALTY BAY Pass Interference on JENKINS, Caden enforced 15 yards to the BAY27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the BAY 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 6 yds to the BAY 20

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the BAY 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Will Howard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.86

Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 14 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 20

2nd & 8Fumble Return Touchdown+15 ydsPPA -7.18

Desmond Purnell 15 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Tennant Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Palmer Williams punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 25

2nd & 7Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.16

Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 19 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.96

DJ Giddens run for 12 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 2 yds to the BAY 42

2nd & 8Rush+35 ydsPPA +1.75

DJ Giddens run for 35 yds to the BAY 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

DJ Giddens run for no gain to the BAY 7

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Will Howard run for 6 yds to the BAY 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the BAY 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Will Howard run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.12

Blake Shapen sacked by Cody Stufflebean for a loss of 8 yards to the BAY 16

2nd & 18Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the BAY 21

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

4th & 13Rush-19 ydsPPA +0.34

Palmer Williams run for a loss of 19 yards to the BAY 2, Palmer Williams fumbeld, recoverted by KSU Matthew Maschmeier, returned 0 yards to the BAY 2.

1st & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Will Howard pass complete to Christian Moore for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the BAY 27

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the BAY 32

3rd & 3Penalty+3 yds

Kansas State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (3 Yards) to the BAY 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Dawson Pendergrass run for 7 yds to the BAY 42

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.26

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.79

Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.37

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 47

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the BAY 49

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the KSU 46

4th & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +2.61

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 4 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the KSU 36

2nd & 4Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -2.24

Jordan Nabors pass complete to Blake Shapen for a loss of 6 yards to the KSU 42

3rd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.36

Dawson Pendergrass run for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 45

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Palmer Williams punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.58

Will Howard pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 13 yds to the KSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the KSU 28

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.69

Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the KSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 13 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the KSU 48

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Howard pass incomplete

3rd & 8Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.34

Will Howard sacked by Matt Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the KSU 38

4th & 18Punt0 yds

punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.36

Dominic Richardson run for 14 yds to the KSU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the KSU 1

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Blake Shapen pass complete to Matthew Klopfenstein for 6 yds to the KSU 42

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

4th & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +2.54

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the KSU 34

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.72

Isaiah Hankins pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 7 yds to the KSU 41

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.24

Will Howard pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.78

DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 41

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jack Blumer punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

[SG] Kneel down by BAY at BAY12 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.05

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 17 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Palmer Williams punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 23

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

DJ Giddens run for 12 yds to the KSU 35 Kansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Phillip Brooks) to the KSU 25

1st & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Keagan Johnson run for 1 yd to the KSU 26

2nd & 7Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.55

Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 40 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the BAY 29

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.24

DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the BAY 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

DJ Giddens run for 6 yds to the BAY 14

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.61

DJ Giddens run for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 16

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 1 yd to the BAY 15

4th & 5Field Goal Good+33 yds

Chris Tennant 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.76

Dominic Richardson run for 9 yds to the BAY 37

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+63 ydsPPA +5.89

Drake Dabney 63 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.84

Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 35 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Kansas State Penalty, False Start (Keagan Johnson) to the BAY 43

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Will Howard pass incomplete

2nd & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the BAY 36

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Will Howard pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.77

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 11 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Treshaun Ward run for 9 yds to the BAY 16

2nd & 1Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA -0.37

Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 7 yds to the BAY 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the BAY 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the BAY 34

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.74

Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jonah Burton for 2 yds to the BAY 42

2nd & 8Interception Return Touchdown+45 ydsPPA -8.56

Keenan Garber 45 Yd Interception Return (Chris Tennant Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.94

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 12 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.14

Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 33

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the BAY 37

3rd & 7Penalty-10 yds

PENDERGRASS, Dawson rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the BAY41 (SAVAGE, Kobe). PENALTY BAY Holding on SIERACKI, Kaden enforced 10 yards from the BAY37 to the BAY27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 17Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.12

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 8 yds to the BAY 35

4th & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.13

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Will Howard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the BAY 34

3rd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the BAY 30

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.48

Will Howard pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.68

Blake Shapen pass complete to Armani Winfield for 18 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.15

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 9 yds to the KSU 43

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the KSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the KSU 38

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the KSU 36

4th & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.29

Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the KSU 26

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the KSU 25

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.91

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Anthony Frias II run for 3 yds to the KSU 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jack Blumer punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -3.06

Blake Shapen sacked by Colby McCalister for a loss of 11 yards to the BAY 41

2nd & 21Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 4 yds to the BAY 45

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Palmer Williams punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 18

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the KSU 22

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Anthony Frias II run for 5 yds to the KSU 27

3rd & 1Penalty-4 yds

Kansas State Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the KSU 23

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jack Blumer punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 35

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 7Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 3 yds Josh Cameron fumbled, recovered by KSU Jevon Banks at the BAY38, returned 0 yards.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

La'James White run for 5 yds to the BAY 33

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.25

Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 5 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 28 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the BAY 27

2nd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.26

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 10 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Dawson Pendergrass run for 6 yds to the BAY 43

4th & 4Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.62

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 21 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

SHAPEN, Blake pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BONNER, Cameron thrown to the KSU2. PENALTY KSU Holding on WRIGHT, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the KSU36 to the KSU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Blake Shapen pass complete to Cameron Bonner for 7 yds to the KSU 19

2nd & 3Penalty+13 yds

SHAPEN, Blake pass to the left incomplete intended for BONNER, Cameron thrown to the KSU5. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on WRIGHT, Jordan enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the KSU6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.82

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 6 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.69

La'James White run for 9 yds to the KSU 13

Situational Analysis

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
45%
31 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
20%
10 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
25%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
80%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Kansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
58%
31 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
5 plays
83%
6 plays
55%
11 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
67%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
100%
1 play