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← Back to GamesNov 12, 2023Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Houston by 10.5

Home Win Probability

Houston 71%

Market (Bovada)

Houston -3

Edge: Houston -3 (7.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 12, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
CincinnatiCincinnati
773724
HoustonHouston
070714

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-77-77-147-177-2414-24
HoustonCincinnati

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINTD1175ydPUNT47ydPUNT513ydTD1283ydPUNT36ydPUNT420ydTD693ydTO3-15ydPUNT33ydDOWNS937ydPUNT37ydEND21ydTO10ydFG1237ydPUNT415ydDOWNS1353ydDOWNS49ydTD652ydTD1275ydPUNT33ydTO10ydEND2-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Cincinnati and Houston
StatisticCincinnatiHouston
Passing17-2316-28
Pass Yards164102
Rush Yards204139
Total Yards368241
Turnovers13
3rd Down7-136-13
Penalties2-83-25
Possession36:5523:05

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Cincinnati
passing
Emory Jones
13/16, 131 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Corey Kiner
23 CAR, 129 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Braden Smith
5 REC, 69 YDS
defense
Daniel Grzesiak
0.5 TFL, 1 PD
Houston
passing
Donovan Smith
16/28, 102 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Donovan Smith
13 CAR, 88 YDS
receiving
Joseph Manjack
4 REC, 22 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 15 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 42

2nd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.89

Emory Jones run for 12 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.61

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 12 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.74

Corey Kiner run for 9 yds to the HOU 25

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the HOU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Ryan Montgomery run for 9 yds to the HOU 14

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.49

Emory Jones pass complete to Barry Jackson Jr. for 3 yds to the HOU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the HOU 9

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the HOU 7

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.84

Emory Jones pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 7 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Donovan Smith run for 10 yds to the HOU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.72

Donovan Smith sacked by Dontay Corleone for a loss of 6 yards to the HOU 29

2nd & 16Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 3 yds to the HOU 32

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 43 yds, downed at the CIN 25

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 6 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 42

3rd & 4Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.10

Emory Jones sacked by Anthony Holmes Jr. and Jamaree Caldwell for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 38

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.11

Parker Jenkins run for 16 yds to the HOU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Donovan Smith pass complete to Matt Byrnes for 5 yds to the HOU 38

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.16

Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 37

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.21

Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the HOU 46

3rd & 9Rush+35 ydsPPA +3.58

Donovan Smith run for 35 yds to the CIN 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Tony Mathis Jr. run for 2 yds to the CIN 17

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.00

Donovan Smith run for 10 yds to the CIN 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 7 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 23

2nd & 12Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.35

Brady Lichtenberg run for 8 yds to the CIN 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Brady Lichtenberg pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.10

Parker Jenkins run for 12 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the HOU 41

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the HOU 46

3rd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 2 yds to the HOU 48

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, downed at the CIN 7

1st & 10Rush+62 ydsPPA +4.03

Corey Kiner run for 62 yds to the HOU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.32

Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Payten Singletary for 20 yds to the HOU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the HOU 6

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Brady Lichtenberg pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.84

Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the HOU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Corey Kiner run for 1 yd for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Tony Mathis Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 6 yds to the HOU 30

3rd & 5Interception0 ydsPPA -0.26

Donovan Smith pass intercepted Deshawn Pace fumbled, recovered by HOU Joseph Manjack IV [NHSG] SMITH, Donovan pass short to the right intercepted by PACE, Deshawn at the HOU35 intended for MANJACK IV, Joseph. Pace return for 25 yards to the HOU10, PACE, Deshawn fumbled at HOU10 forced by MANJACK IV, Joseph, recovered by HOU MANJACK IV, Joseph at the HOU10, returned 0 yards, End of Play, clock 06:30.

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 2 yds to the HOU 12

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.19

Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the HOU 13

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.90

Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the HOU 45

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.22

Emory Jones pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.06

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the HOU 39

2nd & 6Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.76

Myles Montgomery run for 14 yds to the HOU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the HOU 21

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 5 yds to the HOU 16

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.83

Corey Kiner run for no gain to the HOU 16

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.09

Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 7 yds to the HOU 23

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Emory Jones pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 6 yds to the CIN 45

2nd & 4Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.11

Emory Jones sacked by Jamaree Caldwell for a loss of 5 yards to the CIN 40

0th & 4End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.92

Donovan Smith pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 48

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.32

Emory Jones pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 10 yds to the HOU 42

3rd & 1Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.18

Corey Kiner run for 13 yds to the HOU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the HOU 28

2nd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.59

Emory Jones run for 9 yds to the HOU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.10

Emory Jones sacked by Anthony Holmes Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the HOU 26

2nd & 17Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 5 yds to the HOU 21

3rd & 12Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.62

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 15 yds to the HOU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the HOU 5

2nd & 5Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.57

Corey Kiner run for a loss of 4 yards to the HOU 9

3rd & 9Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.09

Emory Jones sacked by Nelson Ceaser for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 14

4th & 14Field Goal Good+31 yds

Carter Brown 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.63

Parker Jenkins run for 20 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

SMITH, Donovan pass to the right complete for 6 yards to CARNES, Dalton caught at the HOU46 and advanced to the HOU46 (THREATS, Bryon;GRZESIAK, Daniel). PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on MANJACK IV, Joseph enforced 15 yards to the HOU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Rush0 ydsPPA -0.17

Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the HOU 25

2nd & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

3rd & 25Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.09

Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 10 yds to the HOU 35

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 61 yds, downed at the CIN 4

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Brady Lichtenberg run for 6 yds to the CIN 10

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.10

Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the CIN 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 14

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the CIN 20

3rd & 4Penalty+5 yds

Houston Penalty, Offsides (Jalen Garner) to the CIN 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Payten Singletary for 6 yds to the CIN 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Brady Lichtenberg pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.76

Brady Lichtenberg run for 8 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Michael McCalmont for 6 yds to the CIN 45

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.69

Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the HOU 43

2nd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 1 yd to the HOU 42

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the HOU 40

4th & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -2.05

Brady Lichtenberg run for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 43

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the HOU 44

2nd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 1 yd to the HOU 45

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 6 yds to the CIN 49

4th & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -1.09

Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 1 yd to the CIN 48

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.47

Emory Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 48

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +3.04

Emory Jones pass complete to Aaron Turner for 14 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.49

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 19 yds to the HOU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.72

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 14 yds to the HOU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Corey Kiner run for 5 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Donovan Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 23

2nd & 12Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.50

Donovan Smith run for 9 yds to the HOU 32

3rd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.81

Donovan Smith run for 9 yds to the HOU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the HOU 42

2nd & 9Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.39

Donovan Smith pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 18 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the CIN 35

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.23

Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 8 yds to the CIN 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the CIN 24

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Houston Penalty, False Start (Reuben Unije) to the CIN 29

2nd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 11 yds to the CIN 18

3rd & 1Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.82

Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 13 yds to the CIN 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Penalty+3 yds

SMITH, Donovan pass short to the right incomplete intended for MANJACK IV, Joseph thrown to the CIN0. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on THREATS, Bryon enforced at the spot of the foul for 3 yards to the CIN2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the HOU 39

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the HOU 37

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the HOU 36

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the HOU 41

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, downed at the HOU 5

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.08

Donovan Smith pass intercepted

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Corey Kiner run for no gain to the HOU 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Kneel down by JONES, Emory at HOU3 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
61%
28 plays
2nd
0%
4 plays
40%
10 plays
57%
7 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
67%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
2 plays

Houston

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
25%
20 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
44%
9 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play