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← Back to GamesNov 4, 2023Week 10
UCFUCF
28
-Final
26
CincinnatiCincinnati
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

UCF by 2.7

Home Win Probability

Cincinnati 39%

Market (Bovada)

Cincinnati +3.5

Edge: Cincinnati +3.5 (0.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 4, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
UCFUCF
777728
CincinnatiCincinnati
377926

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-710-1417-2120-2120-2826-28
CincinnatiUCF

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CINUCFCINUCFCINUCFCINUCFCINUCFCINUCFUCFCINUCFCINUCFCINUCFCINUCFFG1053ydPUNT38ydDOWNS956ydTD659ydPUNT727ydPUNT523ydTO447ydTD988ydTD673ydPUNT35ydTO635ydEND110ydMISS1045ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT33ydTD775ydTD1085ydFG1565ydTD975ydTD575ydEND412yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing UCF and Cincinnati
StatisticUCFCincinnati
Passing13-2319-27
Pass Yards165267
Rush Yards228248
Total Yards393515
Turnovers02
3rd Down6-134-12
Penalties3-208-75
Possession27:0332:57

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

UCF
passing
John Rhys Plumlee
13/23, 165 YDS
rushing
RJ Harvey
20 CAR, 164 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Javon Baker
4 REC, 93 YDS
defense
Cincinnati
passing
Emory Jones
16/22, 217 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Corey Kiner
19 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Braden Smith
6 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Deshawn Pace
2 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Emory Jones run for 7 yds to the CIN 32

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 34

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.65

Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.46

Corey Kiner run for 16 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.02

Emory Jones pass complete to Barry Jackson Jr. for 25 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the UCF 20

2nd & 7Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.91

Emory Jones sacked by Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 29

3rd & 16Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the UCF 22

4th & 9Field Goal Good+39 yds

Carter Brown 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the UCF 28

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the UCF 34

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Mitch McCarthy punt for 64 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.26

Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 3

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.20

Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 8 yds to the CIN 11

3rd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.35

Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 3 yds to the CIN 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.61

Corey Kiner run for 23 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.21

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 46

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 42

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the UCF 41

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.95

Emory Jones pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 39

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.72

Jarrad Baker run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 38

3rd & 13Penalty+15 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, Block below the waist on THREATS, Bryon enforced (Bryon Threats) to the CIN 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Kobe broken up by YOUNG, Jordan at the CIN1. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on YOUNG, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the CIN26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the CIN 24

2nd & 8Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.65

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 16 yds to the CIN 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 24

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.48

Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 10 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Brady Lichtenberg pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.23

Ryan Montgomery run for 13 yds to the CIN 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the CIN 49

2nd & 8Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.61

Myles Montgomery run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 46

3rd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 5 yds to the UCF 49

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds, downed at the UCF 4

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.16

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 33 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the UCF 43

2nd & 4Penalty-10 yds

PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass up the middle complete for -7 yards to RICHARDSON, Johnny caught at the UCF36 and advanced to the UCF36 (DINGLE, Jack), out of bounds. PENALTY UCF Holding on PITTMAN JR., Randy enforced 10 yards from the UCF43 to the UCF33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 14Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 7 yds to the UCF 40

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 35

3rd & 12Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -0.40

John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 27 fumbled, recovered by UCF John Rhys Plumlee [NHSG] QB Keeper PLUMLEE, John Rhys rush up the middle for a loss of 8 yards, PLUMLEE, John Rhys fumbled at UCF30 , recovered by UCF PLUMLEE, John Rhys at the UCF27, returned 0 yards to the UCF27 (PHILLIPS, Eric).

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Mitch McCarthy punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the CIN 41

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the CIN 49

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.34

Brady Lichtenberg pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.38

Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+35 ydsPPA -3.39

Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 35 yds Xzavier Henderson fumbled, recovered by UCF Jason Johnson [NHSG] LICHTENBERG, Brady pass to the left complete for 35 yards to HENDERSON, Xzavier caught at the UCF32, HENDERSON, Xzavier fumbled at UCF32 forced by WELLS, William, recovered by UCF JOHNSON, Jason at the UCF12, returned 0 yards to the UCF12, End of Play, clock 07:51.

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.58

RJ Harvey run for 24 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 36

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.89

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 22 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.46

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 15 yds to the CIN 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.34

John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the CIN 20

2nd & 3Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.66

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 21

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.52

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 8 yds to the CIN 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

RJ Harvey run for 13 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.05

Emory Jones sacked by Ricky Barber and Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 24

2nd & 13Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.97

Ryan Montgomery run for 24 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.00

Ryan Montgomery run for 16 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +1.21

Ryan Montgomery run for 25 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 11 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Randy Pittman for 5 yds to the UCF 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Mitch McCarthy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the CIN 34

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.58

Emory Jones sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 5 yards to the CIN 29

2nd & 15Rush+25 ydsPPA +3.38

Corey Kiner run for 25 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 8 yds to the UCF 38

2nd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 3 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the UCF 31

2nd & 6Interception0 ydsPPA -3.96

Emory Jones pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.86

RJ Harvey run for 10 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 27

2nd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.68

RJ Harvey run for 12 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 40

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the UCF 46

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

4th & 3Rush+19 ydsPPA +3.41

RJ Harvey run for 19 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the CIN 32

3rd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 2 yds to the CIN 30

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+47 yds

Colton Boomer 47 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.28

Corey Kiner run for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 26

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Emory Jones pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.14

Emory Jones pass complete to Corey Kiner for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 24

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 35

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Mitch McCarthy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the CIN 25

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Emory Jones sacked by Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 5 yards to the CIN 20

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Emory Jones pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +4.10

Emory Jones pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 40 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +0.67

Ryan Montgomery run for 29 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UCF 9

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 7 yds to the UCF 2

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.46

Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.44

RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 15

2nd & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.50

RJ Harvey run for 27 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.88

RJ Harvey run for 10 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the CIN 48

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the CIN 47

3rd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.60

John Rhys Plumlee run for 11 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.32

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 3 yds to the CIN 33

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.35

John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds to the CIN 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

RJ Harvey run for 25 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 4 yds to the CIN 29

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.34

Corey Kiner run for 10 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 42

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 43

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the CIN 44

4th & 5Penalty+5 yds

FLETCHER, Mason punt 38 yards to the UCF18, fair catch by WHITTEMORE, Trent, clock 12:18. PENALTY Before the snap, UCF Illegal Formation on RICHARDS, Mark-Antony enforced 5 yards from the CIN44 to the CIN49 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +1.84

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 35 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Penalty-5 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Deondre Buford) to the UCF 7

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.34

Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 8

3rd & 8Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.57

Emory Jones sacked by John Walker and Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 10

4th & 0Rush+7 yds

Myles Montgomery run for 7 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the UCF 38

2nd & 4Penalty-10 yds

JONES, Emory pass to the right complete for 10 yards to METAYER, Chamon caught at the UCF31 and advanced to the UCF28 (ADAMS, Brandon). PENALTY CIN Holding on SINGLETARY, Payten enforced 10 yards from the UCF38 to the UCF48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 14Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 44

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Emory Jones run for no gain to the UCF 44

4th & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA -0.67

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 7 yds to the UCF 37

4th & 10Field Goal Good+28 yds

Carter Brown 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Jarrad Baker run for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jarrad Baker for 3 yds to the UCF 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.00

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 40 yds to the CIN 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the CIN 22

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.06

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds to the CIN 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass to the left incomplete intended for BAKER, Javon broken up by CARROLL, Kalen at the CIN0. PENALTY CIN Personal Foul on WODTLY, Justin enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the CIN10 to the CIN5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the CIN 3

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the CIN 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

RJ Harvey 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)

2nd & 1Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.21

Emory Jones run for 19 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Dee Wiggins) to the CIN 48

1st & 15Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 9 yds to the UCF 43

2nd & 6Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +1.69

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 37 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 9 yds to the CIN 34

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Corey Kiner run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.19

run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 45

2nd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.18

John Rhys Plumlee run for 10 yds to the CIN 35

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.59

John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the CIN 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

[NH] Kneel down by PLUMLEE, John Rhys at CIN32 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

UCF

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
37%
27 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
64%
14 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
43%
30 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
56%
9 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play