Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 28, 2023Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Kansas State by 24.2

Home Win Probability

Kansas State 93%

Market (Bovada)

Kansas State -18.5

Edge: Kansas State -18.5 (5.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
HoustonHouston
00000
Kansas StateKansas State
7217641

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-021-028-035-041-0
Kansas StateHouston

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KSHOUKSHOUKSHOUKSHOUKSHOUHOUKSHOUKSHOUKSHOUKSHOUKSHOUKSHOUTD1275ydPUNT731ydTD1589ydPUNT34ydTO2-3ydMISS4-2ydTD972ydPUNT3-1ydTD544ydDOWNS931ydPUNT519ydPUNT37ydDOWNS924ydDOWNS520ydTO3-1ydTD224ydDOWNS527ydPUNT30ydDOWNS626ydTD842ydPUNT30ydPUNT619ydEND330yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Houston and Kansas State
StatisticHoustonKansas State
Passing15-3321-24
Pass Yards95215
Rush Yards113179
Total Yards208394
Turnovers21
3rd Down3-1410-14
Penalties6-601-5
Possession25:2634:34

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Houston
passing
Donovan Smith
13/28, 88 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Parker Jenkins
12 CAR, 56 YDS
receiving
Sam Brown
4 REC, 49 YDS
defense
Kansas State
passing
Will Howard
15/17, 164 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
DJ Giddens
13 CAR, 96 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Phillip Brooks III
5 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 5 yds to the KSU 34

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.25

Will Howard run for 5 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 39

2nd & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.13

Will Howard sacked by Chidozie Nwankwo for a loss of 5 yards to the KSU 34

3rd & 15Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +3.74

Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 23 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 2 yds to the HOU 41

2nd & 8Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.12

DJ Giddens run for 14 yds to the HOU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

DJ Giddens run for 6 yds to the HOU 21

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.00

DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the HOU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the HOU 12

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.78

Will Howard pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 12 yds for a TD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Houston Penalty, Delay Of Game (Donovan Smith) to the HOU 20

1st & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 4 yds to the HOU 24

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Parker Jenkins run for 8 yds to the HOU 32

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.42

Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.51

Parker Jenkins run for 17 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the KSU 44

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 11

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 11

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Treshaun Ward run for 9 yds to the KSU 20

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.60

Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the KSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 9 yds to the KSU 33

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Jayce Brown run for 2 yds to the KSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the KSU 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 6 yds to the KSU 42

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.61

Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 4 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.83

Will Howard run for 11 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the HOU 40

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

Jayce Brown run for no gain to the KSU 20

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.79

Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 8 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.76

Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 33

2nd & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Will Howard pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 8 yds to the HOU 25

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.50

Will Howard run for 4 yds to the HOU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 21 yds for a TD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the HOU 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds, downed at the KSU 29

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds, downed at the KSU 29

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 29

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-3 ydsPPA -0.39

Avery Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 26 Avery Johnson fumbled, recovered by HOU David Ugwoegbu [NHSG] QB Keeper JOHNSON, Avery rush up the middle for a loss of 3 yards, JOHNSON, Avery fumbled at KSU24 , recovered by HOU UGWOEGBU, David at the KSU26, returned 0 yards to the KSU26, End of Play, clock 11:24.

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-3 ydsPPA -0.39

Avery Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 26 Avery Johnson fumbled, recovered by HOU David Ugwoegbu

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.99

Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 28

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

4th & 12Field Goal Missed+45 yds

Jack Martin 45 yd FG MISSED

4th & 12Field Goal Missed+45 yds

Jack Martin 45 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Jadon Jackson run for 7 yds to the KSU 35

2nd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 2 yds to the KSU 37

3rd & 1Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.23

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 40 yds to the HOU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the HOU 19

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.17

Jadon Jackson run for 8 yds to the HOU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Will Howard run for 2 yds to the HOU 9

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Will Howard pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.03

Treshaun Ward run for 8 yds to the HOU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the HOU 20

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Houston Penalty, False Start (Reuben Unije) to the HOU 15

2nd & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 4 yds to the HOU 19

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 40 yds, downed at the HOU 44

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 40 yds, downed at the HOU 44

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.93

DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the HOU 35

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA -0.26

DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the HOU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the HOU 24

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.47

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 15 yds to the HOU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

DJ Giddens run for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the HOU 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.44

Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 11 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST down

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.35

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

3rd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.61

Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 7 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

SMITH, Donovan pass to the right incomplete intended for COBBS, Joshua thrown to the KSU30; QB hurried by CLIFTON, Jake. PENALTY HOU Holding on UNIJE, Reuben enforced 10 yards from the KSU45 to the HOU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Donovan Smith pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 8 yds to the HOU 48

2nd & 20Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.14

Parker Jenkins run for 11 yds to the KSU 44

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

4th & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the HOU 10

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.81

Parker Jenkins run for 11 yds to the HOU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 5 yds to the HOU 26

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 4 yds to the HOU 30

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.67

Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 29

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Chris Tennant kickoff for 55 yds , return for no gain to the HOU 10

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 38 yds

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 5 yds to the KSU 38

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Will Howard run for 2 yds to the KSU 40

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Will Howard run for no gain to the KSU 40

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jack Blumer punt for 34 yds

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jack Blumer punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Parker Jenkins run for 9 yds to the HOU 39

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.39

Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the HOU 39

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.98

Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the HOU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 39

2nd & 11Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.89

Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 21 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the KSU 38

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the KSU 37

3rd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.05

Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for no gain to the KSU 37

4th & 7Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.56

Donovan Smith sacked by Nate Matlack for a loss of 9 yards to the KSU 46

4th & 7Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.56

Donovan Smith sacked by Nate Matlack for a loss of 9 yards to the KSU 46

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.83

DJ Giddens run for 11 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Will Howard run for 9 yds to the HOU 34

2nd & 1Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.78

Will Howard sacked by Jamaree Caldwell for a loss of 4 yards to the HOU 38

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Howard pass incomplete

4th & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -1.70

Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 4 yds to the HOU 34

4th & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -1.70

Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 4 yds to the HOU 34

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.14

Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 33

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.50

Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the HOU 33

3rd & 11Interception0 ydsPPA -0.03

Donovan Smith pass intercepted

3rd & 11Interception0 ydsPPA -0.03

Donovan Smith pass intercepted by Will Lee III, at the HOU 40, returned for 16 yards to the HOU 24

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.14

DJ Giddens run for 11 yds to the HOU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

DJ Giddens run for 13 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.24

Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 2 yds to the KSU 48

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Avery Johnson pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 2 yds to the HOU 48

3rd & 6Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.46

Avery Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the KSU 48

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jack Blumer punt for 36 yds, downed at the HOU 16

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Ui Ale run for 7 yds to the HOU 23

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Ui Ale run for 8 yds to the HOU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the HOU 33

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Ui Ale pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Ui Ale pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 7 yds to the HOU 40

4th & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Ui Ale run for 2 yds to the HOU 42 Ui Ale fumbled, recovered by KSU Desmond Purnell [SG] QB Keeper ALE, Ui rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards, ALE, Ui fumbled at HOU42 forced by LEE III, Will, recovered by KSU PURNELL, Desmond at the HOU42, returned 0 yards to the HOU42, End of Play; HOU turnover on downs, clock 10:19.

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Anthony Frias II run for 1 yd to the HOU 41

2nd & 9Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.04

Avery Johnson pass complete to Anthony Frias II for no gain to the HOU 41

3rd & 9Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.33

Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 16 yds to the HOU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Kansas State Penalty, False Start (Will Swanson) to the HOU 30

2nd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Avery Johnson run for 5 yds to the HOU 25

3rd & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.07

Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 21 yds to the HOU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.92

Avery Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 7

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Avery Johnson pass complete to Seth Porter for 7 yds for a TD (Leyton Simmering PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.83

Ui Ale pass complete to Jonah Wilson for no gain to the HOU 29

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Ui Ale pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Ui Ale pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 24

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Anthony Frias II run for 3 yds to the KSU 27

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Anthony Frias II run for 2 yds to the KSU 29

3rd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.63

Anthony Frias II run for 7 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Anthony Frias II run for 1 yd to the KSU 37

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jake Rubley pass complete to Erik Pizarro for 5 yds to the KSU 42

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Anthony Frias II run for 1 yd to the KSU 43

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jack Blumer punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.55

Ui Ale run for 11 yds to the HOU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.39

Stacy Sneed run for 16 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Stacy Sneed run for 3 yds to the HOU 43

Situational Analysis

Houston

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
36%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
13%
8 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
0%
1 play
17%
6 plays
0%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
4 plays

Kansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
45%
29 plays
2nd
0%
5 plays
75%
4 plays
50%
14 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
100%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
2 plays