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← Back to GamesOct 21, 2023Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Cincinnati by 7.3

Home Win Probability

Cincinnati 64%

Market (Bovada)

Cincinnati -2.5

Edge: Cincinnati -2.5 (4.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 21, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BaylorBaylor
3179332
CincinnatiCincinnati
01401529

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-37-1014-2014-2614-2921-2921-3229-32
CincinnatiBaylor

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CINBAYCINBAYCINBAYCINBAYCINBAYCINBAYCINBAYBAYCINBAYCINBAYCINBAYCINBAYDOWNS1059ydPUNT48ydPUNT35ydFG4-3ydTD1475ydTD775ydPUNT412ydFG847ydTD475ydDOWNS522ydPUNT3-29ydDOWNS524ydPUNT3-4ydEND39ydTD675ydDOWNS860ydFG956ydTD1262ydFG1557ydTD675ydPUNT617ydDOWNS735ydEND29yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Baylor and Cincinnati
StatisticBaylorCincinnati
Passing25-4219-31
Pass Yards316162
Rush Yards80288
Total Yards396450
Turnovers01
3rd Down5-137-15
Penalties5-204-40
Possession31:1328:47

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Baylor
passing
Blake Shapen
25/42, 316 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Dominic Richardson
8 CAR, 37 YDS
receiving
Ketron Jackson
5 REC, 130 YDS
defense
Matt Jones
1 TFL, 2 PD
Cincinnati
passing
Emory Jones
19/30, 162 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Corey Kiner
15 CAR, 129 YDS
receiving
Xzavier Henderson
8 REC, 82 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Deshawn Pace
2.5 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 20

2nd & 8Rush+38 ydsPPA +3.52

Corey Kiner run for 38 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 4 yds to the BAY 38

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the BAY 36

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Emory Jones pass incomplete

4th & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.18

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 7 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the BAY 25

2nd & 6Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.57

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for no gain to the BAY 25

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the BAY 20

4th & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-3 ydsPPA -3.64

Emory Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 23 Emory Jones fumbled, recovered by CIN Emory Jones

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.87

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.78

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 31

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Palmer Williams punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the CIN 21

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Dartanyan Tinsley) to the CIN 16

1st & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Emory Jones pass complete to Aaron Turner for 4 yds to the CIN 20

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 26

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Emory Jones pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 48 yds, returned by Josh Cameron for 41 yds to the CIN 33

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.71

Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 37

3rd & 14Penalty-5 yds

Baylor Penalty, False Start (Gavin Byers) to the CIN 42

3rd & 19Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 6 yds to the CIN 36

4th & 13Field Goal Good+54 yds

Isaiah Hankins 54 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the CIN 31

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.47

Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the CIN 41

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.03

Myles Montgomery run for 7 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the BAY 49

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the BAY 46

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.78

Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 9 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the BAY 34

2nd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.67

Myles Montgomery run for 14 yds to the BAY 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.55

Myles Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 22

2nd & 12Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.85

Corey Kiner run for 14 yds to the BAY 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the BAY 4

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 4 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +3.14

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 41 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.98

Blake Shapen run for 14 yds to the CIN 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.67

Monaray Baldwin run for 12 yds to the CIN 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 5 yds to the CIN 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Blake Shapen run for 3 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

0th & 3Penalty-5 yds

Baylor Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CIN 8

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Corey Kiner run for 11 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 42

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 45

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -1.48

Corey Kiner run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 42 Corey Kiner fumbled, recovered by CIN John Williams

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the CIN 37

4th & 9Punt0 yds

punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.21

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 11 yds to the BAY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +2.24

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 41 yds to the CIN 20 for a 1ST down

2nd & 14Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.86

Josh Cameron run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 25

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -0.76

Blake Shapen run for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 24 Blake Shapen fumbled, recovered by BAY Blake Shapen

4th & 15Field Goal Good+43 yds

Isaiah Hankins 43 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.60

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 30 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the BAY 44

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the BAY 38

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +3.94

Myles Montgomery 38 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 16 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the BAY 45

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 49

4th & 2Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.93

Blake Shapen sacked by Deshawn Pace for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 47

1st & 24Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.38

Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the CIN 39

2nd & 23Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.43

Emory Jones sacked by Tre Emory and TJ Franklin for a loss of 8 yards to the CIN 31

3rd & 31Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.05

Emory Jones sacked by Gabe Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the CIN 24

1st & 9Penalty-15 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the CIN 38

4th & 38Punt0 yds

punt for 45 yds

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.46

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 16 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 5 yds to the CIN 43

2nd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 3 yds to the CIN 40

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.91

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.65

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 37

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Emory Jones pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.30

Emory Jones pass complete to Corey Kiner for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 36

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.65

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 11 yds to the BAY 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

[NH] Kneel down by BAY at BAY25 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the BAY 26

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the BAY 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.44

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 6 yds to the BAY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+55 ydsPPA +2.80

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 55 yds to the CIN 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Jake Roberts 6 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 27

2nd & 8Rush+40 ydsPPA +3.63

Corey Kiner run for 40 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the BAY 32

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.74

Emory Jones run for 10 yds to the BAY 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Braden Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.52

Corey Kiner run for no gain to the BAY 22

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Emory Jones run for 7 yds to the BAY 15

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.72

Emory Jones pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the BAY 22

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.16

Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Baylor Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BAY 25

1st & 15Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.32

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 20 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.30

Dominic Richardson run for 20 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the CIN 34

3rd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 5 yds to the CIN 29

4th & 4Field Goal Good+46 yds

Isaiah Hankins 46 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 38

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.89

Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the BAY 47

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 2 yds to the BAY 45

3rd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.01

Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 13 yds to the BAY 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Emory Jones pass complete to Aaron Turner for 3 yds to the BAY 29

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the BAY 25

3rd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.56

Emory Jones run for 9 yds to the BAY 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.88

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 12 yds to the BAY 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the BAY 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Myles Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the BAY 21

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.75

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 7 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.17

Blake Shapen sacked by Jowon Briggs for a loss of 4 yards to the BAY 24

2nd & 14Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.36

Blake Shapen run for 17 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 5 yds to the BAY 46

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 49

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.23

Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the CIN 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.75

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 13 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.58

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 8 yds to the CIN 28

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.25

Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the CIN 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.14

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the CIN 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty0 yds

Baylor Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Blake Shapen) to the CIN 26

4th & 23Field Goal Good+43 yds

Isaiah Hankins 43 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

MONTGOMERY, Myles rush to the right for a gain of 14 yards to the CIN25 (JENKINS, Caden), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. PENALTY BAY Holding on HALL, Gabe CIN Holding on KANDRA, Luke , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 7 yds to the CIN 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Emory Jones pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.32

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 4 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+35 ydsPPA +3.40

Myles Montgomery run for 35 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +2.79

Xzavier Henderson 29 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Emory Jones Pass to Evan Prater for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the BAY 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.23

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the CIN 49

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

Baylor Penalty, False Start (Campbell Barrington) to the BAY 46

2nd & 14Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 45

3rd & 15Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.50

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 42

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Palmer Williams punt for 51 yds, downed at the CIN 7

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.34

Emory Jones run for 10 yds to the CIN 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 9 yds to the CIN 26

2nd & 1Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.05

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 17 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.98

Emory Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 42

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Emory Jones pass incomplete

4th & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.03

Emory Jones pass incomplete

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the CIN 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.04

Blake Shapen run for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 31

2nd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

[NH] Kneel down by BAY at CIN33 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
45%
31 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
36%
11 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
100%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
2 plays

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
33%
27 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
54%
13 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
67%
6 plays
100%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play
100%
1 play