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← Back to GamesSep 30, 2023Week 5
BaylorBaylor
36
-Final
35
UCFUCF
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

UCF by 17.2

Home Win Probability

UCF 84%

Market (Bovada)

UCF -11.5

Edge: UCF -11.5 (5.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 30, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BaylorBaylor
7032636
UCFUCF
2177035

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284214-021-728-735-735-1035-1835-3335-36
UCFBaylor

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BAYUCFBAYUCFBAYUCFBAYUCFBAYBAYUCFBAYUCFUCFBAYUCFBAYUCFBAYUCFUCFBAYUCFPUNT39ydTD179ydPUNT3-9ydTD652ydPUNT62ydTD165ydTD1072ydPUNT35ydTD860ydDOWNS49ydMISS826ydMISS1151ydEND1-2ydTD1484ydFG1150ydTO544ydTD1081ydPUNT417ydTD555ydTD737ydPUNT20ydFG961ydMISS1133yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Baylor and UCF
StatisticBaylorUCF
Passing21-3413-26
Pass Yards293234
Rush Yards153235
Total Yards446469
Turnovers12
3rd Down10-185-13
Penalties4-357-74
Possession35:3124:29

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Baylor
passing
Blake Shapen
21/34, 293 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Richard Reese
16 CAR, 100 YDS
receiving
Monaray Baldwin
7 REC, 150 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Matt Jones
3.5 TFL
UCF
passing
Timmy McClain
13/25, 234 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Johnny Richardson
6 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Javon Baker
3 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 23

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 6 yds to the BAY 29

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Palmer Williams punt for 50 yds, downed at the UCF 21

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+79 ydsPPA +6.33

Johnny Richardson run for 79 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 3 yds to the BAY 30

3rd & 5Sack-14 ydsPPA -0.65

Blake Shapen sacked by Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 14 yards to the BAY 16

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Palmer Williams punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.87

Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 13 yds to the BAY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.54

Xavier Townsend run for 20 yds to the BAY 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.77

RJ Harvey run for 12 yds to the BAY 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Timmy McClain run for 5 yds to the BAY 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Timmy McClain run for 2 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the BAY 31

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.47

Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the BAY 37

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 9Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.64

Blake Shapen sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 10 yards to the BAY 27

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Palmer Williams punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+65 ydsPPA +5.24

Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 65 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.58

Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 17 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.25

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 15 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the UCF 34

3rd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.95

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jonah Burton for 4 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.93

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 25 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 2

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Blake Shapen run for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 40

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Mitch McCarthy punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.88

Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 26

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Blake Shapen run for 8 yds to the BAY 34

3rd & 3Rush+28 ydsPPA +3.26

Richard Reese run for 28 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the UCF 35

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.66

Dominic Richardson run for 11 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 22

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the UCF 15

3rd & 1Fumble Return Touchdown+87 ydsPPA -11.36

Demari Henderson 87 Yd Fumble Return (Colton Boomer Kick)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the BAY 37

2nd & 4Penalty-10 yds

SHAPEN, Blake scrambles up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the BU38 (HUNTER, Lee;BULLARD, Quadric). PENALTY BU Holding on EBOSELE, Alvin enforced 10 yards from the BU37 to the BU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 14Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.65

Monaray Baldwin run for 10 yds to the BAY 37

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 3 yds to the BAY 40

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the BAY 37

2nd & 7Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.88

RJ Harvey run for 20 yds to the BAY 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.72

RJ Harvey run for 10 yds to the BAY 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the BAY 2

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

RJ Harvey run for no gain to the BAY 2

3rd & 2Penalty-15 yds

MCCLAIN, Timmy pass short to the left complete for 2 yards to TOWNSEND, Xavier caught at the BU0 and advanced to the BU0, TOUCHDOWN UCF, score nullified by penalty, clock 06:28 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UCF Pass Interference on HUDSON, Kobe enforced 15 yards to the BU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 17Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 3 yds to the BAY 14

4th & 14Blocked Field Goal+32 yds

Colton Boomer 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

UCF Penalty, Roughing the Passer on PETERSON JR., Shaun enforced (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.83

Blake Shapen run for 14 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 33

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.57

Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Richard Reese run for no gain to the UCF 23

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 18

3rd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.50

Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the UCF 11

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the UCF 11

3rd & 8Penalty0 yds

Baylor Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Blake Shapen) to the UCF 29

4th & 26Field Goal Missed+46 yds

Isaiah Hankins 46 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

[NHSG] Kneel down by UCF at UCF27 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.57

Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 14

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 17

3rd & 9Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.26

Timmy McClain pass complete to Alec Holler for 21 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 43

2nd & 5Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.78

Timmy McClain sacked by Cooper Lanz for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 39

3rd & 9Penalty0 yds

MCCLAIN, Timmy sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the UCF32 (VAUGHNS, Byron). PENALTY UCF Holding on KIGHT, Amari enforced 0 yards BU Personal Foul enforced 0 yards from the UCF29 to the UCF39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 46

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Timmy McClain run for 7 yds to the BAY 47

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.13

RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

MCCLAIN, Timmy pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BAKER, Javon broken up by REED, Chateau at the BU2. PENALTY UCF Holding on GRABLE, Tylan enforced 10 yards from the BU42 to the UCF48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the BAY 47

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the BAY 44

3rd & 12Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +3.26

Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 35 yds to the BAY 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the BAY 6

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.82

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 6 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.99

Blake Shapen sacked by Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 8 yards to the BAY 29

2nd & 18Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.80

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 12 yds to the BAY 41

3rd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.88

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 16 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Blake Shapen pass complete to Matthew Klopfenstein for 5 yds to the UCF 38

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.46

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 10 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.25

Richard Reese run for 18 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.53

Blake Shapen run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 13

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

4th & 13Field Goal Good+30 yds

Isaiah Hankins 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.89

Timmy McClain pass complete to Randy Pittman for 35 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.47

Timmy McClain pass complete to Alec Holler for 14 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the right complete for 7 yards to MAGWOOD, Chauncey caught at the BU26 and advanced to the BU19 (JENKINS, Caden). PENALTY Before the snap, UCF Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the BU26 to the BU31. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 29

2nd & 13Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.22

RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 31

3rd & 15Interception0 ydsPPA -2.22

Timmy McClain pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

Baylor Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alvin Ebosele) to the BAY 14

2nd & 15Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.30

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 10 yds to the BAY 24

3rd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.16

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 5 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the BAY 37

2nd & 2Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +2.17

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 43 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the UCF 18

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.18

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 12 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Dawson Pendergrass 6 Yd Run (Blake Shapen Pass to Ketron Jackson Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.66

RJ Harvey run for 10 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 31

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 36

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Mitch McCarthy punt for 19 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +1.61

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 35 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 16

2nd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.07

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 11 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Monaray Baldwin 5 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Blake Shapen Pass to Jordan Nabors for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 39

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.11

RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 38

3rd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.83

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 14 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.87

Johnny Richardson run for 18 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the BAY 24

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.72

RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 25

3rd & 5Fumble Return Touchdown+72 ydsPPA -10.68

Caden Jenkins 72 Yd Fumble Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 4 yds to the UCF 29

2nd & 6Penalty-4 yds

MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the left complete for 11 yards to BAKER, Javon caught at the UCF35 and advanced to the UCF40, out of bounds. PENALTY UCF Illegal Forward Pass on MCCLAIN, Timmy enforced 4 yards from the UCF29 to the UCF25, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Mitch McCarthy punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the BAY 32

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the BAY 36

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the BAY 40

3rd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.89

Dawson Pendergrass run for 9 yds to the BAY 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.50

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 36 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the UCF 15

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the UCF 12

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the UCF 7

4th & 2Field Goal Good+25 yds

Isaiah Hankins 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Timmy McClain run for 4 yds to the UCF 30

4th & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.96

Timmy McClain pass complete to RJ Harvey for 16 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 5 yds to the BAY 49

3rd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Timmy McClain pass complete to Alec Holler for 3 yds to the BAY 46

4th & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.42

RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

3rd & 10Field Goal Missed+59 yds

Colton Boomer 59 yd FG MISSED

Situational Analysis

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
67%
3 plays
25%
28 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
56%
16 plays
100%
5 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
75%
8 plays
75%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play

UCF

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
26 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
0%
5 plays
75%
8 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play