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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Cincinnati by 18.4

Home Win Probability

Cincinnati 86%

Market (Bovada)

Cincinnati -14

Edge: Cincinnati -14 (4.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QOTFinal
Miami (OH)Miami (OH)
7773731
CincinnatiCincinnati
10338024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-710-710-1413-1416-1416-2124-2124-24
CincinnatiMiami (OH)

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20M(CINM(CINM(CINM(CINM(CINM(CINCINM(CINM(CINM(CINM(CINM(CINTD179ydTD675ydTO10ydDOWNS45ydPUNT619ydFG1172ydTD1269ydFG1679ydPUNT39ydTO320ydTO17ydEND20ydPUNT614ydPUNT31ydFG1162ydTD975ydTD1175ydPUNT43ydPUNT645ydFG788ydMISS1257ydEND1-2ydEND13yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Miami (OH) and Cincinnati
StatisticMiami (OH)Cincinnati
Passing12-2018-34
Pass Yards237265
Rush Yards121273
Total Yards358538
Turnovers22
3rd Down4-108-17
Penalties7-4210-78
Possession23:4236:18

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Miami (OH)
passing
Brett Gabbert
12/20, 237 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Brett Gabbert
9 CAR, 75 YDS
receiving
Gage Larvadain
2 REC, 96 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Cincinnati
passing
Emory Jones
18/34, 265 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Ryan Montgomery
20 CAR, 104 YDS
receiving
Xzavier Henderson
12 REC, 140 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+79 ydsPPA +6.33

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 79 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 3 yds to the CIN 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +3.18

Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 32 yds to the M-OH 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the M-OH 34

2nd & 4Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.39

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 22 yds to the M-OH 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the M-OH 4

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.08

Corey Kiner run for 4 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.67

Brett Gabbert pass intercepted

1st & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the M-OH 7

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the M-OH 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Corey Kiner run for no gain to the M-OH 1

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -4.21

Corey Kiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 3

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Keyon Mozee run for 4 yds to the M-OH 7

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 8 yds to the M-OH 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the M-OH 17

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 5 yds to the M-OH 22

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 60 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 6 yds to the CIN 24

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.44

Emory Jones pass complete to Evan Prater for 5 yds to the CIN 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Myles Montgomery run for 8 yds to the CIN 37

2nd & 2Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.32

Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 18 yds to the M-OH 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.66

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Emory Jones run for no gain to the M-OH 30

2nd & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.85

Ryan Montgomery run for 19 yds to the M-OH 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the M-OH 10

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Emory Jones pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+28 yds

Carter Brown 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the M-OH 34

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.41

Gage Larvadain run for 8 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.55

Rashad Amos run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 40

2nd & 12Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.70

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 8 yds to the M-OH 48

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.87

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 6 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.52

Brett Gabbert sacked by Malik Vann for a loss of 7 yards to the M-OH 47

2nd & 17Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the M-OH 49

3rd & 15Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.92

Brett Gabbert run for 10 yds to the CIN 41

4th & 5Rush+26 ydsPPA +3.02

Brett Gabbert run for 26 yds to the CIN 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the CIN 15

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.57

Gage Larvadain run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 17

3rd & 12Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +3.45

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 17 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

KINER, Corey rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the CIN21 (RAY, Malik;MCKINNEY, Christian). PENALTY CIN Holding on BUFORD, Deondre enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the CIN16 to the CIN8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 18Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 13

2nd & 13Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.86

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 21 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 6 yds to the CIN 40

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.67

Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Ryan Montgomery run for 9 yds to the M-OH 46

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.85

Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the M-OH 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.69

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 16 yds to the M-OH 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-7 ydsPPA -1.70

Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 7 yards to the M-OH 36 Ryan Montgomery fumbled, recovered by CIN John Williams

2nd & 17Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.35

Emory Jones run for 13 yds to the M-OH 23

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.56

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 6 yds to the M-OH 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.38

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 10 yds to the M-OH 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the M-OH 5

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Corey Kiner run for no gain to the M-OH 5

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Emory Jones pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+23 yds

Carter Brown 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Brett Gabbert run for no gain to the M-OH 25

3rd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.33

Brett Gabbert run for 9 yds to the M-OH 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.58

Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 20 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.04

Emory Jones pass intercepted

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+7 ydsPPA -4.35

Gage Larvadain run for 7 yds to the CIN 15 Gage Larvadain fumbled, recovered by CIN Deshawn Pace

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the CIN 18

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

2nd & 7Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.45

Emory Jones sacked by Ty Wise for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 15

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 20

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Emory Jones pass incomplete

3rd & 5Penalty+5 yds

JONES, Emory pass to the right intercepted by SALOPEK, Matt at the CIN34 intended for WIGGINS, Dee. Salopek return for 0 yards to the CIN34, End of Play. PENALTY Before the snap, MIA Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the CIN20 to the CIN25 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Emory Jones run for 11 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.36

Corey Kiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 34

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Emory Jones pass incomplete

3rd & 12Penalty-5 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Luke Kandra) to the CIN 29

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Emory Jones pass incomplete

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Gage Larvadain at the M-OH 19

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Rashad Amos run for no gain to the M-OH 19

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Miami (OH) Penalty, Delay Of Game (Rashad Amos) to the M-OH 14

3rd & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Brett Gabbert run for 6 yds to the M-OH 20

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the CIN 32

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Emory Jones run for 13 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Ryan Montgomery run for 9 yds to the M-OH 46

3rd & 1Rush+26 ydsPPA +1.71

Ryan Montgomery run for 26 yds to the M-OH 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Ryan Montgomery run for 7 yds to the M-OH 13

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.72

Ryan Montgomery run for 7 yds to the M-OH 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the M-OH 4

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.49

Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 6

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Emory Jones pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 yds

Carter Brown 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 15 yds to the M-OH 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 8 yds to the M-OH 48

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.26

Kenny Tracy run for 7 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the CIN 42

3rd & 7Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.25

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 22 yds to the CIN 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.68

Brett Gabbert run for 19 yds to the CIN 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Aveon Smith run for no gain to the CIN 1

2nd & 1Penalty0 yds

AMOS, Rashad rush up the middle for no gain to the CIN1 (BRIGGS, Jowon;THREATS, Bryon). PENALTY Before the snap, CIN Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards from the CIN1 to the CIN1. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Kevin Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ryan Montgomery run for 5 yds to the CIN 30

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 30

3rd & 5Penalty+5 yds

Miami (OH) Penalty, Offsides (Brian Ugwu) to the CIN 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.48

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 16 yds to the M-OH 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 4 yds to the M-OH 45

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.03

Emory Jones run for 13 yds to the M-OH 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Ryan Montgomery run for 6 yds to the M-OH 26

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.66

Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the M-OH 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the M-OH 19

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

run for 2 yds to the M-OH 17

3rd & 7Rushing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +3.14

Emory Jones 17 Yd Run (Emory Jones Pass to Chamon Metayer for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Rashad Amos run for 13 yds to the M-OH 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the M-OH 41

2nd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.36

Rashad Amos run for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 38

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (Reid Holskey) to the M-OH 33

3rd & 15Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.24

Brett Gabbert sacked by Bryon Threats for a loss of 5 yards to the M-OH 28

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 63 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 12

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 15

3rd & 4Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +3.38

Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 37 yds to the M-OH 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the M-OH 47

3rd & 9Penalty+5 yds

Miami (OH) Penalty, Offsides (Corey Suttle) to the M-OH 42

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the M-OH 41

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the M-OH 46

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Gage Larvadain at the M-OH 10

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

GABBERT, Brett pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MARSHALL, Miles thrown to the MIA40. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on YOUNG, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the MIA25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +3.03

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 38 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (Kolby Borders) to the CIN 42

1st & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Gage Larvadain run for no gain to the CIN 42

2nd & 15Penalty+15 yds

GABBERT, Brett pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LARVADAIN, Gage thrown to the CIN14. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on HARRIS, Justin enforced 15 yards to the CIN27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.05

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 23 yds to the CIN 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the CIN 2

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

4th & 2Field Goal Good+20 yds

Graham Nicholson 20 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the CIN 26

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the CIN 32

3rd & 3Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.80

Emory Jones sacked by Brian Ugwu for a loss of 6 yards to the CIN 26

4th & 9Rush+27 ydsPPA +3.65

Chamon Metayer run for 27 yds to the M-OH 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the M-OH 44

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.18

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds to the M-OH 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ryan Montgomery run for 5 yds to the M-OH 24

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Ryan Montgomery run for 6 yds to the M-OH 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the M-OH 15

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Emory Jones run for no gain to the M-OH 15

3rd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Emory Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 18

4th & 10Blocked Field Goal+35 yds

Carter Brown 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

0th & 10End of Regulation0 yds

End of 4th Quarter

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Miami (OH)

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
37%
19 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
14%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
100%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
43%
35 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
56%
9 plays
56%
16 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
50%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play