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← Back to GamesOct 28, 2023Week 9
VirginiaVirginia
26
-Final
29
MiamiMiami
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Miami by 15.7

Home Win Probability

Miami 85%

Market (Bovada)

Miami -19

Edge: Virginia +19 (3.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QOTFinal
VirginiaVirginia
73103326
MiamiMiami
03146629

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-73-1010-1017-1317-2020-2323-23
MiamiVirginia

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MIAVIRMIAVIRMIAVIRMIAVIRMIAVIRVIRMIAVIRVIRMIAVIRMIAVIRMIAVIRMIAVIRMIAVIRMIAPUNT511ydTD1275ydTO625ydPUNT1033ydPUNT37ydPUNT37ydPUNT38ydFG570ydFG843ydEND99ydPUNT32ydTD764ydTD10ydFG1569ydTO30ydTD649ydPUNT623ydPUNT3-7ydFG527ydFG1260ydFG942ydPUNT418ydEND1-4ydFG47ydTD325yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Virginia and Miami
StatisticVirginiaMiami
Passing24-3820-30
Pass Yards239163
Rush Yards138113
Total Yards377276
Turnovers12
3rd Down8-195-13
Penalties0-02-20
Possession34:3625:24

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Virginia
passing
Tony Muskett
24/38, 239 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Perris Jones
9 CAR, 58 YDS
receiving
Malik Washington
12 REC, 152 YDS
defense
Miami
passing
Tyler Van Dyke
20/30, 163 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Ajay Allen
11 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Xavier Restrepo
3 REC, 48 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Ajay Allen run for 3 yds to the MIA 30

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.30

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Ajay Allen run for no gain to the MIA 38

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 37 yds, downed at the UVA 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the UVA 34

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Tony Muskett pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the UVA 45

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.52

Perris Jones run for 7 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

(11:13) MUSKETT, Tony pass to the right incomplete intended for FIELDS, Malachi broken up by DAVIS, Jaden at the MIA40, clock 11:09. PENALTY MIA Roughing the Passer on BAIN JR., Rueben enforced 15 yards from the MIA48 to the MIA33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.15

Tony Muskett sacked by Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 36

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Tony Muskett pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.40

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 15 yds to the MIA 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Tony Muskett run for 8 yds to the MIA 13

2nd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Mike Hollins run for 8 yds to the MIA 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the MIA 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Mike Hollins run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Ajay Allen run for 4 yds to the MIA 43

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.26

Ajay Allen run for 8 yds to the UVA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Ajay Allen run for 3 yds to the UVA 46

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Ajay Allen run for 6 yds to the UVA 40

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.79

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.99

Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted by Sam Westfall, at the UVA 10, returned for 0 yards to the UVA 10

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the UVA 11

2nd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.70

Perris Jones run for 9 yds to the UVA 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Mike Hollins run for 9 yds to the UVA 29

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UVA 32

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Tony Muskett pass complete to JR Wilson for 6 yds to the UVA 38

3rd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.63

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the UVA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.37

Tony Muskett sacked by Jayden Wayne and Rueben Bain Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 42

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Tony Muskett run for 1 yd to the UVA 43

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Tony Muskett pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 36 yds, downed at the MIA 21

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.67

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 20

2nd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.49

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 9 yds to the MIA 29

3rd & 2Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -0.71

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIA 28 fumbled, recovered by MIA Mark Fletcher Jr. (13:48) [SG] FLETCHER JR., Mark rush to the right for a loss of 4 yards, FLETCHER JR., Mark fumbled at MIA25 , recovered by MIA FLETCHER JR., Mark at the MIA25, returned 3 yards to the MIA28 (JACKSON, James;KYLE, Tayvonn), clock 13:27.

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the UVA 27

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Kobe Pace run for 4 yds to the UVA 31

3rd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.77

Kobe Pace run for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 29

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 3 yds to the MIA 24

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ajay Allen run for 5 yds to the MIA 29

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+64 ydsPPA +3.56

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 64 yds to the MIA 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Tony Muskett pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the MIA 5

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Tony Muskett pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 yds

Will Bettridge 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.24

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 25 yds to the UVA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the UVA 44

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Miami Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UVA 49

2nd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 9 yds to the UVA 40

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.10

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 4 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the UVA 35

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

Ajay Allen run for no gain to the UVA 35

3rd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 6 yds to the UVA 29

4th & 3Field Goal Good+47 yds

Andres Borregales 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the UVA 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Tony Muskett pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 5 yds to the UVA 33

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.25

Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the UVA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 7 yds to the UVA 44

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.04

Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the UVA 45

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.45

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the UVA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.80

Perris Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the UVA 46

2nd & 13Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.03

Tony Muskett sacked by Branson Deen for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 44

3rd & 15Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.60

Tony Muskett sacked by Rueben Bain Jr. and Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 10 yards to the UVA 34

0th & 15End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Tony Muskett pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the UVA 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Tony Muskett pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Ajay Allen for 6 yds to the MIA 42

2nd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.98

Ajay Allen run for 9 yds to the UVA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.07

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 9 yds to the UVA 40

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.75

Ajay Allen run for 3 yds to the UVA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.33

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Cam McCormick for 11 yds to the UVA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.72

Ajay Allen run for 26 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown+29 ydsPPA -7.92

Kamren Kinchens 29 Yd Interception Return (Andres Borregales Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 10 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Kobe Pace run for 7 yds to the UVA 42

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.76

Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 44

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.77

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 10 yds to the MIA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the MIA 35

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.36

Kobe Pace run for 4 yds to the MIA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.26

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 14 yds to the MIA 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Mike Hollins run for 8 yds to the MIA 9

2nd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.59

Mike Hollins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 10

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.66

Tony Muskett run for 4 yds to the MIA 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

Mike Hollins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 7

2nd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Tony Muskett pass complete to Joshua Rawlings for 1 yd to the MIA 6

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Tony Muskett pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 yds

Will Bettridge 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 45

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

3rd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.65

Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 8 yds to the MIA 41

2nd & 2Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.30

Perris Jones run for 19 yds to the MIA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 5 yds to the MIA 17

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the MIA 16

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Tony Muskett pass complete to Perris Jones for 6 yds to the MIA 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Mike Hollins run for 10 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 13

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 14

3rd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.64

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 7 yds to the MIA 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 5 yds to the MIA 26

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 29

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Tony Muskett pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the UVA 27

3rd & 9Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.32

Tony Muskett sacked by Branson Deen for a loss of 8 yards to the UVA 19

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MIA 41

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.47

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 19 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 4 yds to the UVA 36

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Cam McCormick for 4 yds to the UVA 32

4th & 2Field Goal Good+50 yds

Andres Borregales 50 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Tony Muskett run for 1 yd to the UVA 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.71

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 12 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Kobe Pace run for 7 yds to the UVA 45

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.29

Kobe Pace run for no gain to the UVA 45

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Kobe Pace run for no gain to the UVA 45

4th & 3Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.39

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 18 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Tony Muskett pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.14

Tony Muskett run for 14 yds to the MIA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Tony Muskett pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Tony Muskett run for no gain to the MIA 23

3rd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.42

Tony Muskett run for 8 yds to the MIA 15

4th & 2Field Goal Good+32 yds

Will Bettridge 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.10

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 12 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 39

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 3 yds to the MIA 42

3rd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.52

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.00

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 19 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 2 yds to the UVA 29

3rd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.16

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 30

4th & 9Field Goal Good+48 yds

Andres Borregales 48 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.80

Perris Jones run for 20 yds to the UVA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 4 yds to the UVA 49

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Tony Muskett pass incomplete

3rd & 6Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.45

Tony Muskett sacked by Rueben Bain Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the UVA 43

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 57 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.80

run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIA 16

0th & 10End of Regulation0 yds

End of 4th Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Tony Muskett pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Tony Muskett pass complete to Mike Hollins for 2 yds to the MIA 23

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Mark Fletcher Jr. 11 Yd Run

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.47

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the UVA 11 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Virginia

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
52%
33 plays
2nd
30%
10 plays
0%
3 plays
58%
12 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
75%
8 plays
25%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Miami

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
44%
25 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
43%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
57%
7 plays
0%
1 play
40%
5 plays
4th