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← Back to GamesOct 21, 2023Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Florida State by 9.7

Home Win Probability

Florida State 69%

Market (Bovada)

Florida State -14

Edge: Duke +14 (4.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 21, 2023

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
DukeDuke
10100020
Florida StateFlorida State
71002138

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-1014-1717-2024-2031-2038-20
Florida StateDuke

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20FSDUKFSDUKFSDUKFSFSDUKFSDUKFSDUKFSDUKFSDUKFSDUKFSDUKDOWNS939ydTD664ydDOWNS38ydFG47ydTD1385ydPUNT30ydTD3-2ydTD00ydTO617ydFG645ydFG1458ydEND518ydPUNT32ydPUNT48ydDOWNS1057ydTD1496ydPUNT3-9ydTD774ydDOWNS46ydTD532ydEND638yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Duke and Florida State
StatisticDukeFlorida State
Passing8-2227-36
Pass Yards76268
Rush Yards197152
Total Yards273420
Turnovers11
3rd Down4-127-12
Penalties7-538-50
Possession29:1230:48

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Duke
passing
Riley Leonard
7/16, 69 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Jaquez Moore
16 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jordan Moore
2 REC, 26 YDS
defense
Florida State
passing
Jordan Travis
27/36, 268 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jordan Travis
10 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Johnny Wilson
5 REC, 58 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jordan Travis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.83

Lawrance Toafili run for 13 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jaheim Bell

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.03

Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 9 yds to the FSU 47

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.53

Trey Benson run for 8 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the DUKE 44

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Rodney Hill run for 2 yds to the DUKE 42

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 6 yds to the DUKE 36

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -2.44

Jordan Travis run for no gain to the DUKE 36

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Jordan Waters run for 8 yds to the DUKE 44

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.01

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jeremiah Hasley

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.95

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 11 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan Waters

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+42 ydsPPA +4.20

Jaquez Moore run for 42 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

2nd & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+27 yds

Charlie Ham kickoff for 65 yds , Rodney Hill return for 27 yds to the FSU 27

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Florida State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FSU 22

1st & 15Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.91

Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 10 yds to the FSU 32

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the FSU 36

3rd & 1Penalty0 yds

Florida State Penalty, Illegal Touching (Kyle Morlock) to the FSU 36

4th & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.27

Trey Benson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 35

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the FSU 32

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the FSU 28

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans

4th & 3Field Goal Good+45 yds

Todd Pelino 45 yd FG GOOD

4th & 3Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Charlie Ham kickoff for 65 yds , Rodney Hill return for 15 yds to the FSU 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.54

Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 10 yds to the FSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 11 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the FSU 37

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 6 yds to the FSU 43

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.95

Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 8 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the DUKE 46

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.94

Jordan Travis run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line Jordan Travis fumbled, recovered by FSU Maurice Smith , return to the 50 yard line

3rd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.99

Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 12 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Jordan Travis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

Florida State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the DUKE 48

2nd & 20Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.24

Jordan Travis pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 22 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the DUKE 22

2nd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.56

Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 15 yds to the DUKE 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Jordan Travis pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

4th & 10Punt+1 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 60 yds , Keon Coleman returns for 1 yd to the FSU 26 Florida State Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the FSU 8

1st & 10Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -0.47

Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 3

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the FSU 6

3rd & 12Interception Return Touchdown+13 ydsPPA -6.66

Jordan Travis pass intercepted for a TD Chandler Rivers return for 13 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return Touchdown+99 yds

Charlie Ham kickoff for 64 yds , Deuce Spann return for 99 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Jaquez Moore run for 15 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Duke Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 35

2nd & 15Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.06

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 18 yds to the FSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.74

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 13Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the FSU 48

3rd & 11Penalty-10 yds

Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Graham Barton) to the DUKE 42

3rd & 21Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.08

Riley Leonard pass intercepted Shyheim Brown return for no gain to the FSU 41

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Florida State Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the FSU 36

1st & 15Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.52

Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 1Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +0.72

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 30 yds to the DUKE 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Rodney Hill run for 8 yds to the DUKE 12

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Rodney Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 14

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny Wilson

4th & 4Field Goal Good+32 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald 32 yd FG GOOD

4th & 4Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald kickoff for 65 yds , Terry Moore return for 26 yds to the DUKE 26

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the DUKE 32

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 35

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.28

Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 8 yds to the DUKE 48

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Maurice McIntyre) to the DUKE 41

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

2nd & 20Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.43

Riley Leonard run for 13 yds to the FSU 46

3rd & 7Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.61

Jaquez Moore run for 24 yds to the FSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the FSU 20

2nd & 8Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.81

Jordan Waters run for 14 yds to the FSU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.69

Jordan Waters run for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 9

2nd & 0Penalty-10 yds

Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Hornibrook) to the FSU 19

2nd & 0Rush+1 yds

Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the FSU 18

3rd & 0Rush+2 yds

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the FSU 16

4th & 0Field Goal Good+33 yds

Todd Pelino 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 9 yds to the FSU 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 4 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jordan Travis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Jordan Travis pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 7 yds to the FSU 45

3rd & 3Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.17

Jordan Travis sacked by Wesley Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 43

0th & 3End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+32 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald kickoff for 64 yds , Terry Moore return for 32 yds to the DUKE 33 Florida State Penalty, Defensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the DUKE 44

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.98

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the DUKE 45

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

Duke Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 40

4th & 8Punt+7 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 54 yds , Keon Coleman returns for 7 yds to the FSU 13

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.49

Trey Benson run for 10 yds to the FSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 3 yds to the FSU 26

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Trey Benson run for no gain to the FSU 26

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Jordan Travis pass incomplete

4th & 7Penalty-5 yds

Florida State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FSU 21

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 8 yds to the DUKE 47

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.14

Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the FSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the FSU 42

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the FSU 39

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.74

Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.31

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 12 yds to the FSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+12 yds

Florida State Penalty, Face Mask (12 Yards) to the FSU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the FSU 7

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Jordan Waters run for no gain to the FSU 7

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the FSU 4

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.06

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the FSU 12

2nd & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.73

Trey Benson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 9

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.56

Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 6 yds to the FSU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.54

Jordan Travis run for 10 yds to the FSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 3 yds to the FSU 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Jordan Travis pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.08

Jordan Travis pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 11 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the FSU 45

2nd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 11 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 6 yds to the DUKE 38

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 3 yds to the DUKE 35

3rd & 1Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.61

Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 5 yds to the DUKE 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.30

Jordan Travis run for 20 yds to the DUKE 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 0Penalty+8 yds

Duke Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the DUKE 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Jordan Travis run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 21

2nd & 14Penalty-5 yds

Duke Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 16

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 58 yds , Keon Coleman returns for no gain to the FSU 26

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FSU 30

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 31

3rd & 5Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.22

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 24 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the DUKE 40

2nd & 5Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.75

Jordan Travis run for 19 yds to the DUKE 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Kentron Poitier

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +3.02

Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 21 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

2nd & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald kickoff for 63 yds , Terry Moore return for 24 yds to the DUKE 26

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 7 yds to the DUKE 33

3rd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.61

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 32

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.03

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Rodney Hill run for 4 yds to the DUKE 28

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.32

Rodney Hill run for 9 yds to the DUKE 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds to the DUKE 16

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Caziah Holmes run for 7 yds to the DUKE 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Rodney Hill run for 9 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 28

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the DUKE 32

3rd & 3Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.37

Jaylen Coleman run for 15 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Jaylen Coleman run for 7 yds to the FSU 46

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.17

Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Peyton Jones run for 5 yds to the FSU 37

Situational Analysis

Duke

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
48%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
75%
4 plays
0%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
50%
6 plays
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Florida State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
46%
28 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
60%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
2 plays