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← Back to GamesSep 30, 2023Week 5
Notre DameNotre Dame
21
-Final
14
DukeDuke

House Prediction

Model Margin

Duke by 2.4

Home Win Probability

Duke 60%

Market (Bovada)

Duke +5.5

Edge: Duke +5.5 (7.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 30, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Notre DameNotre Dame
733821
DukeDuke
007714

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-70-100-137-1314-1314-21
DukeNotre Dame

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NDDUKNDDUKNDDUKNDDUKNDDUKNDDUKDUKNDDUKNDDUKNDDUKNDDUKNDDUKNDTD882ydMISS1052ydPUNT940ydTO22ydFG4-4ydPUNT3-9ydPUNT514ydPUNT528ydMISS541ydPUNT35ydPUNT3-4ydMISS1163ydPUNT35ydFG1043ydTD1175ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT34ydPUNT538ydTD880ydPUNT35ydPUNT835ydTD1095ydTO21ydEND19yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Notre Dame and Duke
StatisticNotre DameDuke
Passing15-3112-27
Pass Yards222134
Rush Yards159189
Total Yards381323
Turnovers02
3rd Down3-156-15
Penalties12-702-28
Possession28:1531:45

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Notre Dame
passing
Sam Hartman
15/30, 222 YDS
rushing
Audric Estime
18 CAR, 81 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Mitchell Evans
6 REC, 134 YDS
defense
Duke
passing
Riley Leonard
12/27, 134 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Riley Leonard
18 CAR, 88 YDS
receiving
Jordan Moore
4 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Charlie Ham kickoff for 60 yds , Devyn Ford return for 13 yds to the ND 18

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 19

2nd & 9Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.82

Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 28 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias Merriweather

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Zeke Correll) to the ND 42

2nd & 15Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.75

Audric Estime run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 40

3rd & 17Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.02

Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 13 yds to the DUKE 47

4th & 4Rush+34 ydsPPA +3.44

Jeremiyah Love run for 34 yds to the DUKE 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 7 yds to the DUKE 6

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.24

Audric Estime 6 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)

2nd & 3Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Spencer Shrader kickoff for 63 yds , Terry Moore return for 26 yds to the DUKE 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.38

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 27 yds to the ND 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Nicky Dalmolin

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.57

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan Waters

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Jordan Waters run for no gain to the ND 33

3rd & 10Penalty+5 yds

Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Moore, Jordan, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Jean-Baptiste, Javontae) 5 yards to the NOTREDAME28, NO PLAY.

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the ND 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.47

Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the ND 20

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Riley Leonard run for no gain to the ND 20

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+38 yds

Todd Pelino 38 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the ND 22

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Zeke Correll) to the ND 17

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Holden Staes

3rd & 13Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.68

Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 14 yds to the ND 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the ND 37

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Gi'Bran Payne run for 1 yd to the ND 38

3rd & 3Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.86

Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 21 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 6 yds to the DUKE 35

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Audric Estime run for no gain to the DUKE 35

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Billy Schrauth) to the DUKE 40

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Bryce McFerson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 12

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the DUKE 14

2nd & 8Pass Interception Return+12 ydsPPA -0.02

Riley Leonard pass intercepted Xavier Watts return for 12 yds to the DUKE 13

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the DUKE 9

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Rico Flores Jr.) to the DUKE 14

3rd & 11Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.09

Sam Hartman sacked by Ja'Mion Franklin for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 17

4th & 14Field Goal Good+35 yds

Spencer Shrader 35 Yd Field Goal

4th & 14Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Spencer Shrader kickoff for 61 yds , Terry Moore return for 18 yds to the DUKE 22

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Jalon Calhoun run for 3 yds to the DUKE 25

3rd & 7Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.38

Riley Leonard sacked by Javontae Jean-Baptiste and Marist Liufau for a loss of 12 yards to the DUKE 13

4th & 19Punt+7 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 53 yds , Chris Tyree returns for 7 yds to the ND 41

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the ND 43

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.58

Gi'Bran Payne run for 8 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the DUKE 48

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 3 yds to the DUKE 45

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Holden Staes

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Bryce McFerson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 11

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the DUKE 16

2nd & 5Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.64

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 21 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

2nd & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.91

Riley Leonard pass complete to Malik Bowen-Sims for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 34

3rd & 13Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaquez Moore for 5 yds to the DUKE 39

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ND 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.08

Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 36 yds to the DUKE 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the DUKE 23

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias Merriweather

3rd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 4 yds to the DUKE 19

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+37 yds

Spencer Shrader 37 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.26

Riley Leonard run for no gain to the DUKE 20

3rd & 10Penalty+5 yds

Leonard, Riley pass sacked for loss of 7 yards to the DUKE13 (Botelho, Jordan;Cross III, Howard), PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Botelho, Jordan) 5 yards to the DUKE25, NO PLAY.

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 24

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 25

2nd & 9Penalty-10 yds

Hartman, Sam pass incomplete, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Spindler, Rocco) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME15, NO PLAY.

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.

3rd & 19Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the ND 20

4th & 14Punt+7 yds

Bryce McFerson punt for 57 yds , Sahmir Hagans returns for 7 yds to the DUKE 30

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the DUKE 35

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.03

Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 45

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -1.06

Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the DUKE 45

3rd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.70

Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 12 yds to the ND 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.70

Riley Leonard run for 21 yds to the ND 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.13

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 11 yds to the ND 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the ND 6

3rd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Riley Leonard run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 7 Riley Leonard fumbled, forced by Howard Cross III, recovered by DUKE Sahmir Hagans

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+25 yds

Todd Pelino 25 yd FG MISSED

0th & 6End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Nicky Dalmolin, broken up by Javontae Jean-Baptiste

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the DUKE 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

4th & 5Punt-3 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 37 yds , Chris Tyree returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 30 Chris Tyree fumbled, recovered by ND Ramon Henderson

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the ND 34

2nd & 6Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.42

Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 22 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the DUKE 40

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the DUKE 36

4th & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.91

Sam Hartman run for 7 yds to the DUKE 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the DUKE 25

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the DUKE 22

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias Merriweather

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

Notre Dame Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 27

4th & 8Field Goal Good+45 yds

Spencer Shrader 45 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 27

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the DUKE 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

2nd & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +3.33

Jaquez Moore run for 34 yds to the ND 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Nicky Dalmolin

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the ND 25

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the ND 20

4th & 1Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.82

Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 7 yds to the ND 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.60

Jaquez Moore run for 12 yds to the ND 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 0Penalty0 yds

Moore, Jaquez rush for no gain to the NOTREDAME1, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Hart, Cam) 0 yards to the NOTREDAME1, NO PLAY.

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jordan Waters 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Charlie Ham kickoff for 62 yds , Jeremiyah Love return for 21 yds to the ND 24

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Chris Tyree, broken up by Jeremiah Lewis

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Gi'Bran Payne run for 2 yds to the ND 26

3rd & 8Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.30

Sam Hartman sacked by Aeneas Peebles and Tre Freeman for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 22

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Bryce McFerson punt for 38 yds, downed at the DUKE 40

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 43

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the DUKE 44

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 19

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.10

Audric Estime run for no gain to the ND 19 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (Terry Moore) to the ND 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.50

Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the DUKE 46

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the DUKE 43

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias Merriweather

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Bryce McFerson punt for 43 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the DUKE 24

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

3rd & 6Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.15

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +1.26

Riley Leonard run for 33 yds to the ND 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the ND 16 for a 1ST down Notre Dame Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Botelho) to the ND 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the ND 1

2nd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.72

Jordan Waters run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 3

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Jordan Moore 3 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Todd Pelino Kick)

3rd & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Charlie Ham kickoff for 56 yds , Jeremiyah Love return for 21 yds to the ND 30

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the ND 34

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the ND 35

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Holden Staes

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Bryce McFerson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 32

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the DUKE 35

2nd & 7Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.89

Jordan Waters run for 13 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the DUKE 49

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the ND 47

3rd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.03

Riley Leonard run for 10 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.94

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 38

2nd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the ND 31

3rd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.38

Jordan Waters run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 33

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Riley Leonard punt for 28 yds, downed at the ND 5

1st & 10Penalty-2 yds

Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Tobias Merriweather) to the ND 3

1st & 12Penalty+13 yds

Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Flores Jr., Rico, PENALTY DUKE pass interference (Pickett, Joshua) 13 yards to the NOTREDAME16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.46

Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for no gain to the ND 16

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.

3rd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.01

Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 19 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.00

Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 24 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Merriweather, Tobias, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Merriweather, Tobias) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME44, NO PLAY.

1st & 25Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 9 yds to the DUKE 47

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Mitchell Evans

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Mitchell Evans

4th & 16Rush+17 ydsPPA +4.06

Sam Hartman run for 17 yds to the DUKE 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +3.37

Audric Estime 30 Yd Run (Sam Hartman Pass to Rico Flores Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 5 yds to the DUKE 30

2nd & 5Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.09

Riley Leonard sacked by Howard Cross III for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 26 Riley Leonard fumbled, forced by Howard Cross III, recovered by ND Marist Liufau , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Audric Estime run for 9 yds to the DUKE 17

Situational Analysis

Notre Dame

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
29%
24 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
17%
6 plays
44%
9 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
100%
1 play

Duke

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
36%
28 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
4 plays
38%
16 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
100%
2 plays
44%
9 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play