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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Notre Dame by 26.6

Home Win Probability

Notre Dame 95%

Market (Bovada)

Notre Dame -35

Edge: Central Michigan +35 (8.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Central MichiganCentral Michigan
773017
Notre DameNotre Dame
147101041

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-721-721-1428-1428-1734-1741-17
Notre DameCentral Michigan

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CMNDCMNDCMNDCMNDCMNDCMNDNDCMNDCMNDCMNDCMNDCMNDPUNT39ydTD491ydTD665ydTD1175ydPUNT33ydTD387ydPUNT3-2ydMISS824ydMISS741ydPUNT37ydTD983ydEND1-2ydTD774ydPUNT422ydPUNT40ydFG1250ydFG543ydPUNT35ydFG1047ydPUNT34ydTD682ydPUNT37ydEND622yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Central Michigan and Notre Dame
StatisticCentral MichiganNotre Dame
Passing10-2017-28
Pass Yards137342
Rush Yards131236
Total Yards268578
Turnovers00
3rd Down3-135-12
Penalties2-208-72
Possession29:2730:33

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Central Michigan
passing
Jase Bauer
10/20, 137 YDS
rushing
Myles Bailey
12 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jesse Prewitt III
2 REC, 59 YDS
Notre Dame
passing
Sam Hartman
16/26, 330 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Audric Estime
20 CAR, 176 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tobias Merriweather
3 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Jase Bauer pass complete to Myles Bailey for 7 yds to the CMU 32

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the CMU 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 55 yds

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.57

Audric Estime run for 8 yds to the ND 17

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the ND 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the ND 25

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.30

Sam Hartman pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 75 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Myles Bailey run for 5 yds to the CMU 40

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

BAUER, Jase pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DAVIS, Tyson thrown to the UND34. PENALTY UND Roughing the Passer on BURNHAM, Joshua enforced 15 yards from the CMU40 to the UND45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.69

Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 16 yds to the ND 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Marion Lukes run for 9 yds to the ND 20

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA -0.42

Jase Bauer run for 8 yds to the ND 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Marion Lukes run for 6 yds to the ND 6

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.35

Myles Bailey run for 6 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.12

Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 12 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 11 yds to the ND 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the CMU 47

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.02

Gi'Bran Payne run for 10 yds to the CMU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.33

Audric Estime run for 11 yds to the CMU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.39

Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the CMU 18

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the CMU 17

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +3.21

Audric Estime run for 17 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the CMU 25

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.61

Marion Lukes run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 24

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 63 yds, downed at the ND 13

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.49

Jayden Thomas run for 10 yds to the ND 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the ND 24

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+76 ydsPPA +6.75

Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 76 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.58

Jase Bauer sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the CMU 15

3rd & 20Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.04

Jase Bauer run for 8 yds to the CMU 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 42 yds, downed at the ND 35

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Sam Hartman run for 1 yd to the ND 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.07

Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 12 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the CMU 49

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.17

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 8 yds to the CMU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+59 yds

Spencer Shrader 59 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the CMU 43

2nd & 8Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.37

Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 22 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Notre Dame Penalty, Roughing the Passer on MILLS, Rylie enforced (Rylie Mills) to the ND 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -2.06

Jase Bauer sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the ND 32

2nd & 22Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.44

Myles Bailey run for 14 yds to the ND 18

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+36 yds

Tristan Mattson 36 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.75

Jadarian Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 17

2nd & 13Penalty0 yds

HARTMAN, Sam pass short up the middle complete for 1 yard to ESTIME, Audric caught at the UND19 and advanced to the UND18 (WHITESIDE, Justin). PENALTY UND Holding on FISHER, Blake enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the UND17 to the UND9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 21Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.11

Sam Hartman pass complete to Cam Hart for 10 yds to the ND 19

3rd & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.15

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 8 yds to the ND 27

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Bryce McFerson punt for 55 yds

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +1.97

Marion Lukes run for 25 yds to the CMU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Marion Lukes run for 7 yds to the CMU 49

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.02

Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.35

Jase Bauer run for 4 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jase Bauer pass complete to Lavario Wiley for 4 yds to the ND 42

2nd & 6Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.14

Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 31 yds to the ND 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+9 yds

BAUER, Jase pass to the left incomplete intended for DAVIS, Tyson thrown to the UND0. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on MICKEY, Jaden enforced 9 yards to the UND2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the ND 1

2nd & 1Penalty0 yds

QB Keeper BAUER, Jase rush up the middle for no gain to the UND1 (KEANAAINA, Aidan). PENALTY UND Offsides enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards from the UND1 to the UND1. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jase Bauer run for no gain to the ND 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Jase Bauer run for 1 yd for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

[NH] Kneel down by HARTMAN, Sam at UND23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Tristan Mattson kickoff for 59 yds , return for no gain to the ND 26

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.91

Audric Estime run for 21 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.90

Audric Estime run for 8 yds to the CMU 45

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the CMU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +1.83

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 39 yds to the CMU 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the CMU 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the CMU 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Sam Hartman run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Myles Bailey run for 19 yds to the CMU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the CMU 46

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

BAILEY, Myles rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the UND45 (KISER, Jack;CROSS III, Howard). PENALTY CMU Holding on SERAPIGLIA III, Dominic enforced 10 yards from the CMU46 to the CMU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

3rd & 18Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.49

Jase Bauer run for 11 yds to the CMU 47

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 53 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the ND 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Sam Hartman pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 6 yds to the ND 28

3rd & 2Rush+62 ydsPPA +4.04

Audric Estime run for 72 yds Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Holding (Holden Staes) to the ND 20

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Bryce McFerson punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 47

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 7 yds to the ND 46

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.11

Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

QB Keeper BAUER, Jase rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the UND39 (OSAFO-MENSAH, Nana). PENALTY CMU Holding on KLIMCZAK, Cade enforced 10 yards from the UND44 to the CMU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +2.97

Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 37 yds to the ND 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the ND 14

3rd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.16

Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 9 yds to the ND 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Myles Bailey run for no gain to the ND 5

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+23 yds

Tristan Mattson 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +3.17

Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 42 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

PRICE, Jadarian rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the CMU31 (JONES, Trey;WHITESIDE, Justin). PENALTY UND Holding on COOGAN, Pat enforced 10 yards from the CMU33 to the CMU43 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.11

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 11 yds to the CMU 32

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+50 yds

Spencer Shrader 50 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 29

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMU 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.07

Audric Estime run for 12 yds to the CMU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 6 yds to the CMU 42

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Gi'Bran Payne run for 3 yds to the CMU 39

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Gi'Bran Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 40

4th & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +2.12

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 5 yds to the CMU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.35

Jadarian Price run for 15 yds to the CMU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the CMU 18

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 5 yds to the CMU 13

4th & 3Field Goal Good+31 yds

Spencer Shrader 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the CMU 34

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

Myles Bailey run for no gain to the CMU 34

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 18

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.73

Audric Estime run for 22 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.14

Audric Estime run for 13 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+41 ydsPPA +1.56

Audric Estime run for 41 yds to the CMU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the CMU 4

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Sam Hartman pass complete to Holden Staes for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jase Bauer pass complete to Decorion Temple for 4 yds to the CMU 29

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 32

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jase Bauer run for no gain to the CMU 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 19

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Steve Angeli pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.25

Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the ND 19

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.61

Steve Angeli pass complete to Devyn Ford for 12 yds to the ND 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Chase Ketterer run for 3 yds to the ND 34

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Skip Velotta run for 5 yds to the ND 39

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.23

Sam Assaf run for 2 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Central Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
42%
19 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
4 plays
29%
7 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Notre Dame

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
54%
28 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
55%
11 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
60%
5 plays
100%
1 play
50%
6 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays