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← Back to GamesAug 26, 2023Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Notre Dame by 15.6

Home Win Probability

Notre Dame 81%

Market (consensus)

Notre Dame -20

Edge: Navy +20 (4.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Aug 26, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
00033
Notre DameNotre Dame
14147742

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-021-028-035-042-042-3
Notre DameNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NDNAVNDNAVNDNAVNDNAVNAVNDNAVNDNAVNDNAVNDTD1381ydDOWNS738ydTD763ydPUNT717ydTD478ydMISS1456ydTD980ydUncategorized1-2ydPUNT37ydTD663ydPUNT3-4ydMISS613ydPUNT7-10ydTD760ydFG1562ydEND611yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and Notre Dame
StatisticNavyNotre Dame
Passing3-720-25
Pass Yards43253
Rush Yards126191
Total Yards169444
Turnovers00
3rd Down4-145-7
Penalties3-261-10
Possession33:1426:46

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Tai Lavatai
3/6, 43 YDS
rushing
Daba Fofana
15 CAR, 56 YDS
receiving
Brandon Chatman
2 REC, 41 YDS
defense
Notre Dame
passing
Sam Hartman
19/23, 251 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Audric Estime
16 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jaden Greathouse
3 REC, 68 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Evan Warren kickoff for 63 yds , Gi'Bran Payne return for 17 yds to the ND 19

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.66

Audric Estime run for 10 yds to the ND 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.77

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 19 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Audric Estime run for no gain to the ND 48

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias Merriweather

3rd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.90

Audric Estime run for 11 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Gi'Bran Payne run for 5 yds to the NAVY 36

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Gi'Bran Payne run for 3 yds to the NAVY 33

3rd & 2Rush-10 ydsPPA -2.99

Audric Estime run for no gain to the NAVY 33 Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mitchell Evans) to the NAVY 43

3rd & 12Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.96

Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 22 yds to the NAVY 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Gi'Bran Payne run for 6 yds to the NAVY 15

2nd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.12

Sam Hartman pass complete to Deion Colzie for 7 yds to the NAVY 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the NAVY 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Audric Estime run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the NAVY 31

2nd & 4Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.47

Daba Fofana run for 14 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.86

Daba Fofana run for 11 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Daba Fofana run for no gain to the ND 44

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the ND 39

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Brandon Chatman run for 2 yds to the ND 37

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.06

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Amin Hassan

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.21

Audric Estime run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line Audric Estime fumbled, recovered by ND

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.09

Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 9 yds to the NAVY 41

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.12

Gi'Bran Payne run for 9 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias Merriweather

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Sam Hartman pass complete to Matt Salerno for 9 yds to the NAVY 23

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.24

Gi'Bran Payne run for 4 yds to the NAVY 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Jadarian Price run for 19 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Brandon Chatman run for 7 yds to the NAVY 32

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Daba Fofana run for no gain to the NAVY 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the NAVY 34

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.65

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Eli Heidenreich run for 4 yds to the NAVY 40 Eli Heidenreich fumbled, recovered by NAVY

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the NAVY 42

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Daba Fofana run for no gain to the NAVY 42

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 36 yds, downed at the ND 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.61

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 19 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.97

Jeremiyah Love run for 11 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.71

Sam Hartman pass complete to Deion Colzie for 13 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+35 ydsPPA +2.97

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 35 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 32

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 27

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 33

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.54

Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Brandon Chatman run for 3 yds to the NAVY 43

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the NAVY 48

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.25

Eli Heidenreich run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the ND 46

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.79

Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Brandon Chatman run for 4 yds to the ND 36

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.58

Alex Tecza run for 11 yds to the ND 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the ND 20

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.72

Daba Fofana run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 22

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the ND 19

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+37 yds

Evan Warren 37 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.63

Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 20 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the ND 42

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.67

Sam Hartman pass complete to Devyn Ford for 9 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 7 yds to the NAVY 42

2nd & 3Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.10

Sam Hartman pass complete to Gi'Bran Payne for no gain to the NAVY 42

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.50

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 13 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Navy Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NAVY 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Gi'Bran Payne

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.86

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 14 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

No play data available
1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brandon Chatman run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Alex Tecza run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 26 Alex Tecza fumbled, forced by Cam Hart, recovered by NAVY Tai Lavatai

3rd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the NAVY 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ND 37

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Audric Estime run for 11 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the NAVY 45

2nd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.42

Audric Estime run for 10 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.29

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 11 yds to the NAVY 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Gi'Bran Payne run for 4 yds to the NAVY 20

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.71

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 20 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)

2nd & 6Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Spencer Shrader kickoff for 65 yds , Tyler Bradley return for 12 yds to the NAVY 47 Navy Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the NAVY 6

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 8

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 11

3rd & 5Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.23

Tai Lavatai sacked by Joshua Burnham for a loss of 9 yards to the NAVY 2

4th & 14Punt+11 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds , Chris Tyree returns for 11 yds to the NAVY 37

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the NAVY 31

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.14

Audric Estime run for 8 yds to the NAVY 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 4 yds to the NAVY 19

2nd & 6Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -1.09

Sam Hartman pass complete to Gi'Bran Payne for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 24

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Chris Tyree

4th & 11Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Spencer Shrader 42 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the NAVY 31

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Amin Hassan

3rd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 2 yds to the NAVY 33

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.69

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 38

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Camari Williams

3rd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)-24 ydsPPA -0.81

TEAM run for a loss of 24 yards to the NAVY 14 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NAVY Daba Fofana

4th & 32Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 40

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Jadarian Price run for 7 yds to the ND 47

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.76

Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ND 49

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.34

Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.23

Jadarian Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 46

2nd & 11Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.00

Jeremiyah Love run for 21 yds to the NAVY 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

Jadarian Price run for no gain to the NAVY 25

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +3.15

Sam Hartman pass complete to Deion Colzie for 25 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brandon Chatman run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the NAVY 32

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.22

Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the NAVY 41

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.71

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the NAVY 43

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.37

Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +1.63

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 39 yds to the ND 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Brandon Chatman run for 7 yds to the ND 8

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Daba Fofana run for no gain to the ND 8

3rd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Alex Tecza for 2 yds to the ND 6

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.19

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the ND 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.35

Xavier Arline sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 10 yards to the ND 14

2nd & 14Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the ND 13

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Cody Howard

4th & 13Field Goal Good+31 yds

Evan Warren 31 yd FG GOOD

4th & 19Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Evan Warren kickoff for 62 yds , Gi'Bran Payne return for 24 yds to the ND 27

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the ND 32

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the ND 36

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.76

Audric Estime run for no gain to the ND 36

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.77

Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Steve Angeli pass complete to Rico Flores for 2 yds to the ND 40

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -1.12

Chris Tyree run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 38 Chris Tyree fumbled, recovered by ND Chris Tyree

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
50%
18 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
43%
7 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
57%
7 plays
0%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
75%
4 plays

Notre Dame

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
67%
30 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
50%
6 plays
67%
6 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
60%
5 plays
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play