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← Back to GamesNov 4, 2023Week 10
WashingtonWashington
52
-Final
42
USCUSC
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Washington by 7.5

Home Win Probability

USC 31%

Market (Bovada)

USC +3

Edge: Washington -3 (4.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 4, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
WashingtonWashington
72871052
USCUSC
141414042

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-07-714-1421-1428-2128-3535-4242-4542-52
USCWashington

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20USCWASUSCWASUSCWASUSCWASUSCWASUSCWASUSCWASUSCWASUSCWASUSCWASUSCWASTD1275ydTD1075ydPUNT421ydPUNT3-2ydTD28ydTD1079ydTD595ydTD575ydTD575ydTD870ydTO1-13ydTD312ydEND415ydTO750ydTD880ydTD775ydTD783ydFG946ydPUNT833ydTD991ydDOWNS731ydEND2-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Washington and USC
StatisticWashingtonUSC
Passing22-3027-36
Pass Yards256312
Rush Yards316203
Total Yards572515
Turnovers11
3rd Down7-104-9
Penalties6-526-65
Possession34:4025:20

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Washington
passing
Michael Penix Jr.
22/30, 256 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Dillon Johnson
26 CAR, 256 YDS, 4 TD
receiving
Rome Odunze
5 REC, 82 YDS
defense
USC
passing
Caleb Williams
27/35, 312 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Austin Jones
11 CAR, 127 YDS
receiving
Tahj Washington
8 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10placeholder0 ydsPPA -1.01

USC wins the coin toss, and will receive.

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 8 yds to the USC 33

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the USC 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the USC 46

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 3 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 7 yds to the WASH 44

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 6 yds to the WASH 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Williams, Caleb pass incomplete, PENALTY WASHINGTON offside 5 yards to the WASHINGTON33, NO PLAY.

1st & 5Penalty-10 yds

Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to Singer, Dorian, PENALTY USC holding 10 yards to the WASHINGTON43, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.76

Austin Jones run for 9 yds to the WASH 34

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the WASH 29

3rd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.48

Caleb Williams run for 10 yds to the WASH 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Caleb Williams run for 4 yds to the WASH 15

2nd & 6Penalty+13 yds

Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to Rice, Brenden, PENALTY WASHINGTON pass interference 13 yards to the WASHINGTON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Raleek Brown 2 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 5 yds to the WASH 30

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.23

Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the WASH 44

2nd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.68

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 15 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.59

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 19 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Will Nixon run for 7 yds to the USC 15

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA -0.09

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 6 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 6 yds to the USC 3

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the USC 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Dillon Johnson 2 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 19 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 2 yds to the USC 46

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden Rice

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Duce Robinson

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Eddie Czaplicki punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 20

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Penix Jr., Michael pass complete to Polk, Ja'Lynn for 9 yards to the WASHINGTON29, PENALTY WASHINGTON tripping 10 yards to the WASHINGTON10, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.15

Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the WASH 18

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn Polk

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Giles Jackson

4th & 12Blocked Punt0 yds

TEAM punt blocked by Duce Robinson. TEAM punt 0 yards to the WASHINGTON18, recovered by USC Tabaracci, Carson

1st & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the WASH 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Caleb Williams 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)

2nd & 3Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Denis Lynch kickoff for 65 yds , Daniyel Ngata return for 21 yds to the WASH 21

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the WASH 26

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.72

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 6 yds to the WASH 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Germie Bernard run for 15 yds to the WASH 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Tybo Rogers run for 5 yds to the USC 48

2nd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.09

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Tybo Rogers for 15 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn Polk

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.99

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 19 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome Odunze

2nd & 10Penalty-14 yds

Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (-14 Yards) to the USC 28

2nd & 24Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the USC 22

3rd & 18Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +4.29

Devin Culp 22 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)

3rd & 18Kickoff Return (Offense)+4 yds

Grady Gross kickoff for 64 yds , Zachariah Branch return for 4 yds to the USC 5

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.34

Austin Jones run for 11 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 9 yds to the USC 25

2nd & 1Rush+31 ydsPPA +2.17

Austin Jones run for 31 yds to the WASH 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+43 ydsPPA +2.47

Darwin Barlow run for 43 yds to the WASH 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Darwin Barlow 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Denis Lynch kickoff for 64 yds , Daniyel Ngata return for 24 yds to the WASH 25

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the WASH 30

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.32

Dillon Johnson run for 11 yds to the WASH 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.83

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the WASH 37

2nd & 14Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.24

Will Nixon run for 11 yds to the WASH 48

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+52 ydsPPA +5.26

Dillon Johnson 52 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Caleb Williams run for 14 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 5 yds to the USC 44

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.20

Austin Jones run for 10 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 5 yds to the WASH 41

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+41 ydsPPA +3.45

Tahj Washington 41 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)

2nd & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Denis Lynch kickoff for 56 yds , Daniyel Ngata return for 16 yds to the WASH 49 USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the WASH 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.60

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 32 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.98

Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 39

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Giles Jackson

3rd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Will Nixon run for 5 yds to the USC 34

4th & 6Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.71

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 26 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 2 yds to the USC 6

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the USC 4

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Ja'Lynn Polk 4 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)

1st & 10Sack-13 ydsPPA -1.27

Caleb Williams sacked by Zion Tupuola-Fetui for a loss of 13 yards to the USC 12 Caleb Williams fumbled, recovered by WASH

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the USC 9

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.69

Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Dillon Johnson 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Austin Jones run for 14 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 6 yds to the USC 45

3rd & 4Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.34

Caleb Williams sacked by Zion Tupuola-Fetui and Bralen Trice for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 40

0th & 4End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+29 yds

Denis Lynch kickoff for 65 yds , Daniyel Ngata return for 29 yds to the WASH 29

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the WASH 30

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

Johnson, Dillon rush for 10 yards to the WASHINGTON40, PENALTY WASHINGTON illegal formation 5 yards to the WASHINGTON25, NO PLAY.

2nd & 14Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.24

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 15 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Giles Jackson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.34

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 14 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.98

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 9 yds to the USC 37

2nd & 1Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA -0.07

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 16 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.37

Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. Christian Roland-Wallace return for no gain

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

TEAM run for no gain to the USC 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.40

Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 34 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 2 yds to the WASH 44

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.17

Caleb Williams run for 10 yds to the WASH 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden Rice

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 9 yds to the WASH 25

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden Rice

4th & 1Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +3.65

Brenden Rice 25 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Ja'Lynn Polk run for 7 yds to the WASH 32

2nd & 3Rush+33 ydsPPA +2.50

Dillon Johnson run for 33 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Odunze, Rome, PENALTY USC roughing passer 15 yards to the USC20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the USC 14

2nd & 4Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.03

Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 20

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 11 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Tybo Rogers run for 8 yds to the USC 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Michael Penix Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)

2nd & 2Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Grady Gross kickoff for 65 yds , Zachariah Branch return for 17 yds to the USC 17

2nd & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.18

Caleb Williams pass complete to Duce Robinson for 43 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Duce Robinson

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.83

Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 14 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the WASH 34

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Caleb Williams pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.63

Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 14 yds to the WASH 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Mario Williams 20 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Denis Lynch kickoff for 59 yds , Daniyel Ngata return for 22 yds to the WASH 28

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the WASH 33

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

Washington Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WASH 28

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.76

Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the WASH 37

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.03

Michael Penix Jr. run for 2 yds to the WASH 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the USC 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the USC 40

2nd & 4Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.61

Dillon Johnson run for 20 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Will Nixon run for 1 yd to the USC 19

3rd & 9Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.08

Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Eric Gentry for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 26

4th & 16Field Goal Good+43 yds

Grady Gross 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Raleek Brown run for 14 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Caleb Williams pass complete to Raleek Brown for 3 yds to the USC 42

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 6 yds to the USC 48

3rd & 1Rush+25 ydsPPA +2.17

Austin Jones run for 25 yds to the WASH 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 3 yds to the WASH 24

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Raleek Brown run for no gain to the WASH 24

3rd & 7Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -2.03

Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 4 yds to the WASH 20 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WASH 30

3rd & 13Sack-12 ydsPPA -2.59

Caleb Williams sacked by Voi Tunuufi for a loss of 12 yards to the WASH 42

4th & 25Punt0 yds

Eddie Czaplicki punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 9

1st & 10Rush+53 ydsPPA +3.73

Dillon Johnson run for 53 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Tybo Rogers run for 4 yds to the USC 34

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Tybo Rogers run for 1 yd to the USC 33

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.07

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 6 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Tybo Rogers run for 3 yds to the USC 24

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 7 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 5 yds to the USC 12

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.57

Dillon Johnson run for 11 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Grady Gross kickoff for 65 yds , Zachariah Branch return for 22 yds to the USC 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 8 yds to the USC 30

2nd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 6 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Austin Jones run for 11 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Caleb Williams run for 5 yds to the WASH 48

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.18

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Zachariah Branch

3rd & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Caleb Williams pass complete to Raleek Brown for 1 yd to the WASH 47

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Tahj Washington

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 46

2nd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.16

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 44

Situational Analysis

Washington

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
53%
32 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
40%
5 plays
70%
10 plays
83%
6 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

USC

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
62%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
6 plays
75%
4 plays
67%
9 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play