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← Back to GamesSep 2, 2023Week 1
NevadaNevada
14
-Final
66
USCUSC

House Prediction

Model Margin

USC by 27

Home Win Probability

USC 95%

Market (Bovada)

USC -38

Edge: Nevada +38 (11.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 2, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NevadaNevada
700714
USCUSC
211472466

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284256707-721-728-735-742-745-759-1466-14
USCNevada

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20USCNEVUSCNEVUSCNEVUSCNEVUSCNEVUSCNEVUSCNEVUSCNEVNEVUSCNEVUSCNEVNEVUSCNEVUSCNEVTD479ydTD485ydPUNT532ydPUNT3-3ydTD454ydPUNT31ydTD445ydPUNT36ydTD468ydMISS1041ydTD364ydPUNT34ydPUNT3-4ydDOWNS938ydTO416ydMISS619ydPUNT39ydTD767ydPUNT1236ydFG1079ydTD3-2ydTD275ydTD569ydDOWNS743ydTD268ydEND618yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Nevada and USC
StatisticNevadaUSC
Passing22-3425-34
Pass Yards311453
Rush Yards49215
Total Yards360668
Turnovers11
3rd Down5-192-6
Penalties4-498-75
Possession35:5924:01

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Nevada
passing
Brendon Lewis
18/29, 182 YDS
rushing
Sean Dollars
9 CAR, 33 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jamaal Bell
8 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
defense
USC
passing
Caleb Williams
18/24, 319 YDS, 5 TD
rushing
MarShawn Lloyd
7 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tahj Washington
3 REC, 75 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.81

Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 11 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.42

Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 30 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.51

Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 21 yds to the NEV 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NEV 22

1st & 15Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.96

Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 22 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the NEV 20

2nd & 5Pass Reception+73 ydsPPA +4.35

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 73 yds to the USC 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Sean Dollars run for 4 yds to the USC 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Sean Dollars run for 3 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Rush+30 ydsPPA +2.54

MarShawn Lloyd run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.65

Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 10 yds to the NEV 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Caleb Williams pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Caleb Williams pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.93

Caleb Williams sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the NEV 48

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Eddie Czaplicki punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Jamaal Bell run for 1 yd to the NEV 11

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

3rd & 9Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.11

Brendon Lewis sacked by Jamil Muhammad for a loss of 4 yards to the NEV 7

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 47 yds, downed at the USC 46

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.25

Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 20 yds to the NEV 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds to the NEV 29

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.17

Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 5 yds to the NEV 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

MarShawn Lloyd run for 24 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 46 yds , returns for no gain to the NEV 45

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.69

Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 16 yds to the NEV 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.21

Austin Jones run for 12 yds to the NEV 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NEV 22

2nd & 15Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +3.35

Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 22 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 8 yds to the NEV 33

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 34

3rd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.95

Ashton Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the USC 39

2nd & 3Rush+46 ydsPPA +2.27

Caleb Williams run for 46 yds to the NEV 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Caleb Williams pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.88

Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 15 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 7 yds to the NEV 30

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Ashton Hayes run for 2 yds to the NEV 32

3rd & 1Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.93

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 26 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Ashton Hayes run for 6 yds to the USC 36

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Nevada Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 41

3rd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.35

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 2 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Targeting on CURTIS, Tackett enforced (15 Yards) to the USC 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-13 ydsPPA -2.59

Brendon Lewis sacked by Shane Lee for a loss of 13 yards to the USC 37

2nd & 23Penalty-15 yds

Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the USC 47

3rd & 33Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.45

Sean Dollars run for 11 yds to the USC 36

4th & 22Field Goal Missed+54 yds

Brandon Talton 54 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(08:34) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass deep to the right complete for 20 yards to SINGER, Dorian caught at the NEV43 and advanced to the NEV44 (SEIULI, Aedan), clock 08:24. PENALTY USC Holding on PREGNON, Emmanuel enforced 10 yards from the USC36 to the USC26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+54 ydsPPA +4.25

Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 54 yds to the NEV 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 7 yds to the NEV 13

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.30

Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 13 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the NEV 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.56

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for no gain to the NEV 28

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the NEV 29

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 37 yds, downed at the USC 34

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.49

Mario Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 30

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Caleb Williams pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Caleb Williams pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Eddie Czaplicki punt for 47 yds, downed at the NEV 23

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 24

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 7 yds to the NEV 31

3rd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.85

Brendon Lewis run for 11 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

USC Penalty, Roughing the Passer on SULLIVAN, Jack enforced (15 Yards) to the USC 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 1 yd to the USC 39

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

4th & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Quinten Joyner run for 5 yds to the USC 44

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.98

Caleb Williams pass complete to Quinten Joyner for 7 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Quinten Joyner run for 7 yds to the NEV 42

2nd & 3Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-3 ydsPPA -3.81

run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 45 fumbled, recovered by NEV Drue Watts

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 7 yds to the USC 48

3rd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Ashton Hayes for 2 yds to the USC 46

4th & 1Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for 10 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Field Goal Missed+54 yds

Brandon Talton 54 yd FG MISSED

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.87

Jamaal Bell run for 8 yds to the NEV 31

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Ashton Hayes run for 1 yd to the NEV 32

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Ashton Hayes run for no gain to the NEV 32

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 35 yds

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the USC 30

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

USC Penalty, False Start (Justin Dedich) to the USC 28

2nd & 13Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Caleb Williams run for 4 yds to the USC 34

3rd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 8 yds to the USC 42

4th & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.59

MarShawn Lloyd run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Caleb Williams pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds to the NEV 45

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+45 ydsPPA +4.88

Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 45 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Ashton Hayes run for 2 yds to the NEV 23

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.58

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 9 yds to the NEV 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 1 yd to the NEV 33

2nd & 9Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.36

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 16 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Ashton Hayes run for 8 yds to the USC 43

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.67

Ashton Hayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 45

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Ashton Hayes for 3 yds to the USC 42

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.96

Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.56

Brendon Lewis sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 48

2nd & 18Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Ashton Hayes run for 1 yd to the USC 47

3rd & 17Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the USC 43

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 42 yds, downed at the USC 1

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the USC 3

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.38

Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 8 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.43

Darwin Barlow run for 23 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Miller Moss pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 10 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Miller Moss pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.79

Miller Moss pass complete to Mario Williams for 29 yds to the NEV 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(00:28) MOSS, Miller pass to the left complete for 7 yards to WILLIAMS, Mario caught at the NEV16 and advanced to the NEV6 (WATTS, Drue), out of bounds, clock 00:22. PENALTY USC Holding on BRANCH, Zachariah enforced 10 yards from the NEV13 to the NEV23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Penalty-5 yds

USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NEV 28

1st & 25Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Quinten Joyner run for 6 yds to the NEV 22

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Miller Moss pass incomplete

3rd & 19Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 2 yds to the NEV 20

4th & 17Field Goal Good+37 yds

Denis Lynch 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 6 yds to the NEV 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 1 yd to the NEV 32

3rd & 3Fumble Return Touchdown+23 ydsPPA -7.53

Stanley Ta'ufo'ou 23 Yd Fumble Return (Denis Lynch Kick)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Cross Patton run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEV 23

2nd & 12Passing Touchdown+77 ydsPPA +6.96

AJ Bianco pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 77 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 6 yds to the USC 37

2nd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.22

Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 11 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 5 yds to the NEV 47

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.17

Miller Moss pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+47 ydsPPA +5.08

Quinten Joyner run for 47 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 1 yd to the NEV 26

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Cross Patton run for 3 yds to the NEV 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.75

AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 33 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.78

Cross Patton run for no gain to the USC 38

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Cross Patton run for 3 yds to the USC 35

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

AJ Bianco run for 3 yds to the USC 32

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.41

AJ Bianco pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.29

Darwin Barlow run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 29

2nd & 13Passing Touchdown+71 ydsPPA +6.81

Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 71 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Cross Patton run for 2 yds to the NEV 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Cross Patton run for 2 yds to the NEV 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.75

AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 18 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Cross Patton run for 4 yds to the USC 49

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Cross Patton run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

3rd & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.47

AJ Bianco sacked by De'jon Benton for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 43

Situational Analysis

Nevada

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
24%
25 plays
2nd
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
12 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
33%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
25%
8 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

USC

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
72%
25 plays
75%
4 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play