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← Back to GamesSep 2, 2023Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

North Texas by 8.8

Home Win Probability

North Texas 69%

Market (consensus)

North Texas +9

Edge: North Texas +9 (17.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 2, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
CaliforniaCalifornia
1419151058
North TexasNorth Texas
7140021

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-714-1414-2721-4121-4821-5521-58
North TexasCalifornia

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NTCALNTCALNTCALNTCALNTCALNTCALNTCALNTCALNTCALNTCALNTCALNTCALNTCALNTCALNTCALNTPUNT3-8ydTD365ydTD575ydPUNT38ydPUNT36ydMISS756ydTO515ydTD414ydTD575ydPUNT616ydPUNT54ydTD744ydPUNT32ydTD275ydPUNT35ydTO53ydTD324ydTD975ydEND1-2ydTD975ydTO10ydTD832ydPUNT3-3ydTO1348ydDOWNS43ydTD757ydTO310ydFG923ydPUNT37ydMISS633ydEND3-8yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing California and North Texas
StatisticCaliforniaNorth Texas
Passing27-3915-26
Pass Yards322184
Rush Yards36141
Total Yards683225
Turnovers23
3rd Down9-182-11
Penalties8-602-20
Possession39:0720:53

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

California
passing
Ben Finley
24/34, 289 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jadyn Ott
20 CAR, 192 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jeremiah Hunter
6 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Jackson Sirmon
1 TFL, 1 PD
North Texas
passing
Stone Earle
12/19, 174 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Isaiah Johnson
6 CAR, 34 YDS
receiving
Jay Maclin
4 REC, 122 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Ikaika Ragsdale run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 23

2nd & 12Penalty-10 yds

QB Keeper EARLE, Stone rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the UNT28 (ELARMS-ORR, Kaleb). PENALTY UNT Holding on BLAIR, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the UNT23 to the UNT13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Stone Earle pass incomplete

3rd & 22Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.00

Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the UNT 17

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Sawyer Evans punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Rush+41 ydsPPA +2.56

Jaydn Ott run for 41 yds to the UNT 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the UNT 23

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +3.01

Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 23 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Stone Earle pass complete to Roderic Burns for 9 yds to the UNT 34

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+58 ydsPPA +3.17

Stone Earle pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 58 yds to the CAL 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the CAL 3

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Stone Earle pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 22

2nd & 13Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Sam Jackson V run for 5 yds to the CAL 27

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CAL 22

3rd & 13Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.35

Sam Jackson V pass complete to Monroe Young for 11 yds to the CAL 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Lachlan Wilson punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.89

Stone Earle pass complete to Roderic Burns for no gain to the UNT 31

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Stone Earle pass complete to Ayo Adeyi for 5 yds to the UNT 36

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Stone Earle run for 1 yd to the UNT 37

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Adam Jacklin punt for 34 yds, downed at the CAL 29

1st & 10Rush+38 ydsPPA +2.87

Jaydn Ott run for 38 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the UNT 29

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.39

Sam Jackson V run for 13 yds to the UNT 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Sam Jackson V pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the UNT 14

3rd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 15

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+32 yds

Michael Luckhurst 32 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Stone Earle pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 2 yds to the UNT 22

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Isaiah Johnson run for 6 yds to the UNT 28

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.31

Isaiah Johnson run for 7 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Stone Earle pass incomplete

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.74

Stone Earle pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the UNT 10

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.10

Jaydn Ott run for 7 yds to the UNT 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK)

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Stone Earle run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 21

2nd & 14Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.99

Stone Earle pass complete to Roderic Burns for 13 yds to the UNT 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the UNT 41

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+59 ydsPPA +5.04

Stone Earle pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 59 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Sam Jackson V run for no gain to the CAL 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.66

Ben Finley pass complete to Monroe Young for 7 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Ben Finley pass complete to Isaiah Ifanse for 3 yds to the CAL 41

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Ben Finley pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the CAL 31

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 18

2nd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Stone Earle pass complete to Kaylon Horton for 11 yds to the UNT 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

EARLE, Stone scrambles up the middle for no gain to the UNT29 (ANTZOULATOS, Blake). PENALTY UNT Holding on CARROLL, Daizion enforced 10 yards from the UNT29 to the UNT19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 22

2nd & 17Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.12

Stone Earle run for 7 yds to the UNT 29

3rd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.34

Stone Earle sacked by Jackson Sirmon for a loss of 10 yards to the UNT 19

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Sawyer Evans punt for 25 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Isaiah Ifanse run for 7 yds to the UNT 37

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.93

Isaiah Ifanse run for 3 yds to the UNT 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Isaiah Ifanse run for 4 yds to the UNT 30

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 4 yds to the UNT 26

4th & 2Rushing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +3.83

Isaiah Ifanse run for 26 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Stone Earle pass complete to Roderic Burns for 5 yds to the UNT 35

2nd & 5Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.27

Stone Earle pass complete to Jordan Smart for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 32

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Stone Earle pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Adam Jacklin punt for 43 yds, downed at the CAL 25

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the CAL 34

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+66 ydsPPA +4.83

Jaydn Ott run for 66 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Stone Earle pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the UNT 38

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Stone Earle pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Adam Jacklin punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Ben Finley pass complete to Brian Hightower for 3 yds to the CAL 24

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 6 yds to the CAL 30

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CAL 25

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.82

Ben Finley pass complete to Monroe Young for 11 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-12 ydsPPA -0.81

Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 12 yards to the CAL 24 Jaydn Ott fumbled, recovered by UNT Logan Wilson

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Stone Earle run for 4 yds to the CAL 20

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.18

Isaiah Johnson run for 8 yds to the CAL 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Stone Earle pass complete to Xzavior Kautai for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Isaiah Ifanse run for 1 yd to the CAL 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.48

Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 20 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 7 yds to the UNT 47

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the UNT 45

3rd & 1Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.20

Ben Finley pass complete to Isaiah Ifanse for no gain to the UNT 45

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.08

Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +0.93

Ben Finley pass complete to Monroe Young for 34 yds to the UNT 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Ben Finley run for 1 yd to the UNT 8

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.68

Isaiah Ifanse 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

[NHSG] Kneel down by EARLE, Stone at UNT28 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 14 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 42

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 45

3rd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.39

Ben Finley pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 13 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.42

Ben Finley pass complete to Brian Hightower for 10 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.27

Jaydn Ott run for 13 yds to the UNT 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.67

Ben Finley pass complete to Isaiah Ifanse for 18 yds to the UNT 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Isaiah Ifanse run for no gain to the UNT 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Isaiah Ifanse run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Finley pass to Jack Endries for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.92

Stone Earle pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.29

Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 15 yds to the UNT 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the UNT 17

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Ben Finley pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.32

Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 8 yds to the UNT 9

4th & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.12

Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the UNT 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 6

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Ben Finley run for 2 yds to the UNT 4

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK)

0th & 0Penalty-5 yds

California Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jaydn Ott) to the UNT 8

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UNT 28

2nd & 7Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.87

Stone Earle sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the UNT 22

3rd & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.09

Stone Earle run for no gain to the UNT 22

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Adam Jacklin punt for 43 yds, downed at the CAL 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Ashton Stredick run for 2 yds to the CAL 27

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.60

Ashton Stredick run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 25

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.08

Ben Finley pass complete to Jack Endries for 12 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

California Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mavin Anderson) to the CAL 31

1st & 16Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.24

Ben Finley pass complete to Ashton Stredick for 16 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

FINLEY, Ben pass up the middle complete for 14 yards to GRIZZELL, Trond caught at the UNT39 and advanced to the UNT39 (TEXADA, Ridge). PENALTY CAL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SWINNEY, Bastian enforced 5 yards from the CAL47 to the CAL42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 15Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.32

Ben Finley pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 24 yds to the UNT 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Ben Finley pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.82

Ben Finley pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 11 yds to the UNT 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Ben Finley run for 6 yds to the UNT 17

2nd & 4Penalty-15 yds

California Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Trond Grizzell) to the UNT 32

2nd & 19Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.86

Ashton Stredick run for 10 yds to the UNT 22

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNT 27

3rd & 14Interception0 ydsPPA -2.69

Ben Finley pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Isaiah Johnson run for 6 yds to the CAL 40

3rd & 4Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.72

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 43

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Ashton Stredick run for 5 yds to the CAL 48

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.71

Ashton Stredick run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 3Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.16

Ben Finley pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 17 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Ashton Stredick run for 3 yds to the UNT 30

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Ashton Stredick run for 7 yds to the UNT 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.78

Ben Finley pass complete to Jack Endries for 18 yds to the UNT 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Ashton Stredick run for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the UNT 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.42

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 9 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.76

Chandler Rogers pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ashton Stredick run for 5 yds to the UNT 32

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.23

Ashton Stredick run for 5 yds to the UNT 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Ashton Stredick run for 4 yds to the UNT 23

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Ashton Stredick run for 4 yds to the UNT 19

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.27

Andy Alfieri run for 4 yds to the UNT 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Andy Alfieri run for no gain to the UNT 15

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Ashton Stredick run for 1 yd to the UNT 14

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+31 yds

Michael Luckhurst 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 4 yds to the UNT 22

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 25

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Adam Jacklin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Taj Davis at the CAL 37

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jaivian Thomas run for 5 yds to the CAL 42

2nd & 5Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.10

Jaivian Thomas run for 27 yds to the UNT 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNT 28

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNT 27

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -2.50

Fernando Mendoza run for a loss of 8 yards to the UNT 30 Fernando Mendoza fumbled, recovered by CAL Fernando Mendoza

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+47 yds

Michael Luckhurst 47 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-11 ydsPPA -1.59

Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 11 yards to the UNT 20 Chandler Rogers fumbled, recovered by UNT Kaylon Horton

2nd & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.09

Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the UNT 20

3rd & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.03

Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the UNT 22

Situational Analysis

California

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
44%
36 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
56%
9 plays
38%
16 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
67%
6 plays
50%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
3 plays

North Texas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
24%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
75%
8 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play