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← Back to GamesNov 26, 2023Week 13

House Prediction

Model Margin

Florida State by 20.8

Home Win Probability

Florida 10%

Market (Bovada)

Florida +6.5

Edge: Florida State -6.5 (14.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 26, 2023

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Florida StateFlorida State
0771024
FloridaFlorida
0123015

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-010-012-715-1415-1715-24
FloridaFlorida State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20FLOFSFLOFSFLOFSFLOFSFLOFSFLOFSFLOFSFLOFSFLOFSFLOFSFLOFSMISS1345ydPUNT3-7ydTD1370ydPUNT3-1ydFG523ydPUNT414ydPUNT39ydSAF3-6ydPUNT3-7ydTD1090ydMISS341ydTD675ydFG1156ydPUNT3-14ydPUNT32ydPUNT414ydPUNT37ydFG1255ydPUNT3-7ydTD766ydDOWNS4-5ydEND3-12yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Florida State and Florida
StatisticFlorida StateFlorida
Passing12-269-16
Pass Yards13486
Rush Yards90146
Total Yards224232
Turnovers01
3rd Down4-147-16
Penalties5-228-90
Possession25:0834:52

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Florida State
passing
Tate Rodemaker
12/25, 134 YDS
rushing
Trey Benson
19 CAR, 95 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Johnny Wilson
6 REC, 64 YDS
defense
Florida
passing
Max Brown
9/16, 86 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Montrell Johnson
18 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Eugene Wilson
3 REC, 36 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Trevor Etienne run for 4 yds to the FLA 29

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Max Brown run for no gain to the FLA 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Max Brown pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 16 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Trevor Etienne run for 7 yds to the FSU 48

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.71

Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the FSU 46

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.03

Max Brown run for 4 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Max Brown run for no gain to the FSU 42

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the FSU 42

3rd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.51

Max Brown pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 15 yds to the FSU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FSU 22

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FSU 21

3rd & 4Pass Reception-9 ydsPPA -2.41

Max Brown pass complete to Trevor Etienne for a loss of 9 yards to the FSU 30

4th & 13Field Goal Missed+48 yds

Trey Smack 48 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 4 yds to the FSU 34

2nd & 6Rush-11 ydsPPA -1.46

Trey Benson run for a loss of 11 yards to the FSU 23

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 30

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.82

Max Brown run for 9 yds to the FLA 39

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.17

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 46

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Max Brown pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.44

Max Brown pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 10 yds to the FSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FSU 41

2nd & 7Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.15

Max Brown pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 24 yds to the FSU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.89

Max Brown pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 13 yds to the FSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Penalty0 yds

ETIENNE, Trevor rush up the middle for no gain to the FSU4 (VERSE, Jared). PENALTY FSU Offsides on FARMER, Joshua enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the FSU4 to the FSU2 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.53

Max Brown sacked by Jared Verse and Braden Fiske for a loss of 7 yards to the FSU 9

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.34

Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 10

3rd & 10Penalty+10 yds

BROWN, Max sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the FSU20 (DENT, Akeem). PENALTY FSU Personal Foul on DENT, Akeem enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the FSU10 to the FSU5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Max Brown pass incomplete

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Florida State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jared Verse) to the FSU 20

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

2nd & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.13

Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FSU 21

3rd & 14Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.11

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 8 yds to the FSU 29

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

Florida State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jared Verse) to the FSU 24

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 16 yds

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.47

Trevor Etienne run for 14 yds to the FSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Trevor Etienne run for 7 yds to the FSU 19

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the FSU 17

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Max Brown run for no gain to the FSU 17

4th & 1Field Goal Good+35 yds

Trey Smack 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 12 yds to the FSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 34

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Max Brown run for 3 yds to the FLA 26 Max Brown fumbled, recovered by FLA [NHSG] QB Keeper BROWN, Max rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards, BROWN, Max fumbled at UFL26 forced by DENT, Akeem out of bounds to the UFL26.

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 27

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Max Brown pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 5 yds to the FLA 32

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 62 yds, downed at the FSU 6

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 7 yds to the FSU 13

2nd & 3Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.68

Trey Benson run for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 9

3rd & 7Safety-9 ydsPPA -1.76

Tate Rodemaker sacked by Princely Umanmielen and Derek Wingo for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETY

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

Florida Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the FLA 40

2nd & 24Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Trevor Etienne run for 7 yds to the FLA 47

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Max Brown pass incomplete

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 10

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.79

Trey Benson run for 16 yds to the FSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Florida Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the FSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Trey Benson run for no gain to the FSU 39

2nd & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.09

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 29 yds to the FLA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.91

Lawrance Toafili run for 16 yds to the FLA 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FLA 15

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.25

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 14 yds to the FLA 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Trey Benson run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 24

2nd & 11Rush+52 ydsPPA +4.20

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 52 yds to the FSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

JOHNSON JR., Montrell rush up the middle for a gain of 14 yards to the FSU10 (DELOACH, Kalen;CYPRESS II, Fentrell). PENALTY UFL Holding on GEORGE JR., Damieon enforced 10 yards from the FSU24 to the FSU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Field Goal Missed+52 yds

Trey Smack 52 yd FG MISSED

0th & 20End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Trey Benson run for no gain to the FSU 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.08

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 12 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.91

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Keon Coleman for 24 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the FLA 36

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +3.40

Trey Benson run for 36 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 23

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Max Brown pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.46

Max Brown pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 17 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.62

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 21 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FSU 35

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 33

3rd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.03

Max Brown run for 10 yds to the FSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Eugene Wilson III run for 1 yd to the FSU 22

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 20

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Max Brown run for 1 yd to the FSU 19

4th & 6Field Goal Good+37 yds

Trey Smack 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Trey Benson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 24

2nd & 11Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.47

Tate Rodemaker sacked by Desmond Watson for a loss of 8 yards to the FSU 16

3rd & 19Penalty-5 yds

Florida State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Fabien Lovett) to the FSU 11

3rd & 24Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.01

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the FLA 30

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the FLA 31

2nd & 9Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -0.80

Max Brown pass complete to Trevor Etienne for a loss of 5 yards to the FLA 26

3rd & 14Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.05

Max Brown run for 6 yds to the FLA 32

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 68 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.05

Trey Benson run for 14 yds to the FSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the FLA 23

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FLA 28

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 29

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 30

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 61 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 44

2nd & 9Penalty+15 yds

RODEMAKER, Tate pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WILSON, Johnny broken up by MOORE, Devin at the UFL29. PENALTY UFL Pass Interference on MOORE, Devin enforced 15 yards to the UFL41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Trey Benson run for 7 yds to the FLA 34

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Trey Benson run for no gain to the FLA 34

4th & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.96

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 10 yds to the FLA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FLA 22

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Trey Benson run for 5 yds to the FLA 17

3rd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.81

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 11 yds to the FLA 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the FLA 2

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Trey Benson run for no gain to the FLA 2

4th & 2Field Goal Good+19 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald 19 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Max Brown sacked by Patrick Payton for a loss of 6 yards to the FLA 19

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Max Brown pass incomplete

3rd & 16Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.06

Max Brown sacked by Patrick Payton for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 18

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 48 yds, downed at the FSU 34

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.39

Trey Benson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 31

2nd & 13Penalty+15 yds

RODEMAKER, Tate pass deep to the left incomplete intended for COLEMAN, Keon thrown to the UFL45. PENALTY UFL Pass Interference on HILL, Jaydon enforced 15 yards to the FSU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 5 yds to the FLA 49

2nd & 5Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.71

Tate Rodemaker sacked by Jason Marshall Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the FSU 42

3rd & 14Penalty0 yds

Florida Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaydon Hill) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Brock Glenn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

QB Keeper GLENN, Brock rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the UFL26 (UMANMIELEN, Princely). PENALTY UFL Offsides on UMANMIELEN, Princely enforced 5 yards from the UFL33 to the UFL28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FLA 26

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +3.18

Trey Benson run for 26 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.18

Max Brown sacked by Jared Verse for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 17

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Max Brown pass incomplete

3rd & 18Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.05

Max Brown sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 15

4th & 20Pass Interception Return+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Max Brown pass intercepted Kalen DeLoach return for 6 yds to the FLA 20

1st & 10Rush-10 ydsPPA -1.66

Tate Rodemaker run for a loss of 10 yards to the FLA 30

2nd & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.98

[NH] Kneel down by RODEMAKER, Tate at UFL31 (team loss of 1).

3rd & 21Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

[NH] Kneel down by RODEMAKER, Tate at UFL32 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Florida State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
33%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
50%
8 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
35%
20 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
29%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
67%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play