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← Back to GamesNov 18, 2023Week 12

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 8.3

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 70%

Market (Bovada)

Mississippi State -18.5

Edge: Southern Miss +18.5 (10.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 18, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Southern MissSouthern Miss
7001320
Mississippi StateMississippi State
31371841

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-73-713-716-723-723-1326-1341-20
Mississippi StateSouthern Miss

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSSMMSSMMSSMMSSMMSSMMSSMMSSMMSSMMSSMMSSMMSSMMSMSSMSMMSDOWNS722ydTD557ydPUNT36ydPUNT34ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT36ydFG47ydPUNT3-6ydTD853ydTO1-11ydFG43ydPUNT519ydPUNT36ydDOWNS631ydPUNT413ydPUNT33ydFG1242ydPUNT3-13ydTD563ydPUNT1027ydPUNT514ydTD762ydFG1365ydTD375ydTD730ydDOWNS621ydEND2-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Southern Miss and Mississippi State
StatisticSouthern MissMississippi State
Passing11-2112-27
Pass Yards141144
Rush Yards105238
Total Yards246382
Turnovers20
3rd Down3-156-16
Penalties6-666-65
Possession31:4228:18

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Southern Miss
passing
Billy Wiles
9/16, 89 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Frank Gore Jr.
22 CAR, 66 YDS
receiving
Jakarius Caston
2 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
12/27, 144 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Jeffery Pittman
10 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Zavion Thomas
3 REC, 66 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+33 yds

Connor Gibbs kickoff for 33 yds , return for no gain to the MSST 35 , Antonio Harmon return for no gain to the MSST 35

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MSST 36

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MSST 38

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.59

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 11 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the USM 47

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the USM 43

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.62

Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the USM 43

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 47

2nd & 6Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +2.21

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 44 yds to the MSST 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Frank Gore Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Jakarius Caston run for 1 yd to the MSST 8

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.95

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Lideatrick Griffin run for no gain to the MSST 32

3rd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Will Rogers run for 6 yds to the MSST 38

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Ethan Crawford run for 6 yds to the USM 27

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the USM 30

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (Rodrigues Clark) to the USM 25

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Zavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the MSST 47

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

MARKS, Jo'quavious rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the USM48 (THOMAS JR., Eric). PENALTY MSU Holding on JONES, Nick enforced 10 yards from the MSU47 to the MSU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 16Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 1 yd to the MSST 38

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 14

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the USM 19

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 20

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.25

Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the USM 20

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 32 yds, downed at the USM 37

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the USM 34

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the USM 30

4th & 3Field Goal Good+48 yds

Kyle Ferrie 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.18

Ethan Crawford sacked by De'Monte Russell for a loss of 8 yards to the USM 17

2nd & 18Rush0 ydsPPA -0.09

Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the USM 17

3rd & 18Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.03

Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USM 19

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 34 yds, downed at the MSST 47

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 45

2nd & 12Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.68

Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 19 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the USM 35

2nd & 9Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.90

Seth Davis run for 12 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.14

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 12 yds to the USM 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Seth Davis run for 1 yd to the USM 10

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Zavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the USM 8

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.90

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -1.24

Ethan Crawford sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 11 yards to the USM 14, fumble on the sack recovered by Nathan Pickering

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Will Rogers run for no gain to the USM 14

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 3 yds to the USM 11

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+29 yds

Kyle Ferrie 29 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+64 yds

Marlon Hauck kickoff for 64 yds , return for no gain to the USM 12 , Isaac Smith return for no gain to the USM 12

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the USM 17

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.73

Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 10 yds to the USM 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the USM 28

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Billy Wiles run for 3 yds to the USM 31

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 47 yds, downed at the MSST 22

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MSST 28

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Billy Wiles run for 3 yds to the USM 38

2nd & 7Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.46

Frank Gore Jr. run for 22 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the MSST 34

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the MSST 34

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.22

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 13 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 45

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Seth Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 47

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 19

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 51 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for no gain to the MSST 35

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the MSST 38

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the MSST 42

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.52

Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the MSST 47

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.60

Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 10 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the USM 40

3rd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.86

Seth Davis run for 10 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Seth Davis run for 4 yds to the USM 26

2nd & 6Penalty-15 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the USM 41

3rd & 21Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.58

Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 18 yds to the USM 23

4th & 3Field Goal Good+41 yds

Kyle Ferrie 41 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 31

2nd & 9Penalty-10 yds

GORE, Frank rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the USM40 (PURVIS, J.P.;JOHNSON, Jett). PENALTY USM Holding on MAYS, Briason enforced 10 yards from the USM31 to the USM21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 19Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.17

Ethan Crawford sacked by Jett Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the USM 11

3rd & 29Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.00

Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the USM 17

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 46 yds, downed at the MSST 37

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MSST 41

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)+35 ydsPPA +2.53

Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 35 yds Zavion Thomas fumbled, recovered by MSST Zavion Thomas for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Will Rogers run for 9 yds to the USM 15

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the USM 15

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.64

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the USM 30

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the USM 34

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.75

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

run for 1 yd to the USM 38

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the USM 43

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.84

Ethan Crawford run for 5 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the MSST 47

2nd & 5Penalty-16 yds

WILES, Billy pass to the right complete for 22 yards to MIMS, Tiaquelin caught at the MSU33 and advanced to the MSU25 (RICHARDSON, Decamerion). PENALTY USM Unsportsmanlike Conduct enforced 16 yards from the MSU47 to the USM37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 21Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the USM 40

3rd & 18Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.78

Ethan Crawford run for 12 yds to the MSST 48

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 48 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Lideatrick Griffin run for 6 yds to the MSST 26

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.49

Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the MSST 34

3rd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.38

Will Rogers pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for no gain to the MSST 34

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.70

Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 34

2nd & 14Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 5 yds to the USM 39

3rd & 9Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.86

Billy Wiles run for 12 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the MSST 48

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

run for 1 yd to the MSST 47

3rd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the MSST 44

4th & 5Passing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +5.85

Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 44 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 26

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaac Smith) to the MSST 22

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.87

Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 12 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Zavion Thomas run for 8 yds to the MSST 42

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.12

Seth Davis run for 4 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.28

Mike Wright run for 21 yds to the USM 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Southern Miss Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jalen Williams) to the USM 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Seth Davis run for 2 yds to the USM 14

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the USM 12

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+30 yds

Kyle Ferrie 30 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return Touchdown+98 yds

Jakarius Caston 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Andrew Stein Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.12

Jeffery Pittman run for 16 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+59 ydsPPA +4.66

Jeffery Pittman run for 59 yds for a TD (Will Rogers pass to Zavion Thomas for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 1 yd to the USM 31

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 4 yds to the USM 35

3rd & 5Penalty+15 yds

GORE, Frank pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CASTON, Jakarius thrown to the MSU21. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on RICHARDSON, Decamerion enforced 15 yards to the USM50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 7 yds to the MSST 43

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the MSST 42

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the MSST 41

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.86

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the MSST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown+60 ydsPPA -10.81

Marcus Banks 60 Yd Interception Return (Kyle Ferrie Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 5 yds to the USM 43

2nd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.08

Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 8 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the MSST 45

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Billy Wiles pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 5 yds to the MSST 40

4th & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -2.05

Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 41

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

(01:16) [NHSG] Kneel down by WRIGHT, Mike at MSU40 (team loss of 1).

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.71

[NHSG] Kneel down by WRIGHT, Mike at MSU39 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Southern Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
27%
22 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
60%
5 plays
40%
10 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
24%
29 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
29%
14 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
50%
8 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play