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← Back to GamesNov 19, 2023Week 12

House Prediction

Model Margin

LSU by 23.3

Home Win Probability

LSU 92%

Market (Bovada)

LSU -32

Edge: Georgia State +32 (8.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 19, 2023

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Georgia StateGeorgia State
770014
LSULSU
142171456

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842560-77-714-721-1442-1449-1456-14
LSUGeorgia State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20GSLSUGSLSUGSLSUGSLSUGSLSUGSLSUGSLSUGSLSUGSLSUTD875ydTD775ydPUNT825ydTD953ydTD579ydTD780ydDOWNS1145ydTD170ydPUNT44ydTD360ydEND22ydTD870ydDOWNS1138ydTD863ydPUNT616ydTD582ydDOWNS961ydEND519yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Georgia State and LSU
StatisticGeorgia StateLSU
Passing26-3325-30
Pass Yards217413
Rush Yards148169
Total Yards365582
Turnovers00
3rd Down5-125-6
Penalties7-505-55
Possession35:2124:39

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Georgia State
passing
Darren Grainger
23/29, 179 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Marcus Carroll
15 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Robert Lewis
9 REC, 63 YDS
defense
LSU
passing
Jayden Daniels
25/30, 413 YDS, 6 TD
rushing
Jayden Daniels
10 CAR, 96 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Malik Nabers
8 REC, 140 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 4 yds to the GAST 29

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the GAST 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.42

Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 31 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 5 yds to the LSU 32

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 7 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 4 yds to the LSU 21

2nd & 6Penalty+15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Grainger,Darren pass incomplete deep right to Credle,Ja'Cyais PENALTY LSU Pass Interference (Stamps,Ashton) 15 yards from LSU21 to LSU06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Ja'Cyais Credle

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik Nabers

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 29

3rd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.89

Jayden Daniels run for 9 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +2.05

Jayden Daniels run for 29 yds to the GAST 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 5 yds to the GAST 28

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.23

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 10 yds to the GAST 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 18 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the GAST 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Marcus Carroll

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.08

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 12 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GAST 38

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.00

Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 11 yds to the GAST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 2 yds to the LSU 49

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the LSU 47

3rd & 6Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Grainger,Darren rush left for 6 yards gain to the LSU41 (Sam,Andre) PENALTY GSU Holding (Glover,Travis) 10 yards from LSU47 to GSU43. NO PLAY.

3rd & 16Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Marcus Carroll run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 9Punt+27 yds

Kade Loggins punt for 30 yds , Javen Nicholas returns for 27 yds to the LSU 47

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Jayden rush right for 11 yards gain to the GSU42 (Veneziale,Jordan), out of bounds PENALTY LSU Holding (Frazier,Miles) 10 yards from LSU47 to LSU37. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.60

Josh Williams run for 8 yds to the LSU 45

2nd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Trey Holly for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.76

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 18 yds to the GAST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Mason Taylor

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Aaron Anderson

3rd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+11 ydsPPA +1.67

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 11 yds Mason Taylor fumbled, recovered by LSU Mason Taylor for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

J.Daniels pass complete short right to #8 M.Nabers for 13 yards to the GSU08 (#48 J.Abraham) PENALTY LSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#86 M.Taylor) 5 yards from GSU21 to GSU26. NO PLAY).

1st & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Brian Thomas Jr. run for 6 yds to the GAST 14 Brian Thomas Jr. fumbled, recovered by LSU Brian Thomas Jr.

2nd & 14Rushing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +3.03

Jayden Daniels run for 14 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the GAST 29

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

(00:00) PENALTY GSU Personal Foul offsetting LSU Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 11 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.79

Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 21 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 1 yd to the LSU 44

2nd & 11Rushing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +4.51

Marcus Carroll run for 44 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.33

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 33 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GAST 46

1st & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 7 yds to the GAST 39

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Kaleb Jackson run for 3 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 9 yds to the GAST 27

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.24

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 27 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 1 yd to the GAST 26

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the GAST 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.46

Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 15 yds to the GAST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GAST 46

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.85

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 11 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Darren Grainger run for 8 yds to the LSU 35

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the LSU 33

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY GSU Delay Of Game (Grainger,Darren) 5 yards from LSU33 to LSU38. NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the LSU 35

3rd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 5 yds to the LSU 30

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.23

Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Robert Lewis

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+70 ydsPPA +5.69

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 70 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Georgia State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GAST 17

1st & 18Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds to the GAST 23

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the GAST 22

3rd & 13Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.44

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 12 yds to the GAST 34

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY GSU Delay Of Game (Grainger,Darren) 5 yards from GSU34 to GSU29. NO PLAY.

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Kade Loggins punt for 31 yds , Javen Nicholas returns for no gain to the LSU 40

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the LSU 45

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete deep left to Anderson,Aaron PENALTY GSU Pass Interference (Brown,Bryquice) 15 yards from LSU45 to GSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +0.87

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 32 yds to the GAST 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Penalty-5 yds

(00:25) PENALTY LSU False Start 5 yards from GSU08 to GSU13. NO PLAY.

1st & 13Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.72

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 13 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Tailique Williams

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GAST 27

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+28 yds

Isaac Kone kickoff for 63 yds , Kaleb Jackson return for 28 yds to the LSU 30

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the LSU 37

2nd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the GAST 49

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.78

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 7 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.53

Jayden Daniels run for 14 yds to the GAST 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 5 yds to the GAST 23

2nd & 5Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.22

Noah Cain run for 20 yds to the GAST 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mac Markway for 3 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 7 yds to the GAST 32

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.42

Darren Grainger run for 5 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.85

Darren Grainger sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the GAST 31

2nd & 16Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY GSU Delay Of Game (Grainger,Darren) 5 yards from GSU31 to GSU26. NO PLAY.

2nd & 21Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.05

Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 6 yds to the GAST 32

3rd & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.29

Darren Grainger run for 9 yds to the GAST 41

4th & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +3.08

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 10 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.67

Marcus Carroll run for 11 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the LSU 35

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the LSU 34

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Ja'Cyais Credle

4th & 6Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.97

Darren Grainger sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the LSU 46

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.26

Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the GAST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.71

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 19 yds to the GAST 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.19

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 15 yds to the GAST 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Kaleb Jackson run for 2 yds to the GAST 8

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the GAST 7

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the GAST 1

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.21

Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the GAST 1

4th & 1Penalty0 yds

No Huddle Daniels,Jayden rush right for 0 yards to the GSU01 (Davis Jr.,Chris) PENALTY GSU Horse Collar Tackle (Davis Jr.,Chris), 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

KZ Adams run for 3 yds to the GAST 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 1 yd to the GAST 27

3rd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.25

Darren Grainger run for 13 yds to the GAST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Peter Kikwata

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

KZ Adams run for 3 yds to the GAST 43

3rd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 2 yds to the GAST 41

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Kade Loggins punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 6 yds to the LSU 24

3rd & 4Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.31

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 18 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.37

Kaleb Jackson run for 18 yds to the GAST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +3.19

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 40 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Nathan Dibert kickoff for 61 yds , Tailique Williams return for 22 yds to the GAST 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Mikele Colasurdo pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 6 yds to the GAST 20

2nd & 16Penalty0 yds

Georgia State Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Yards) declined

3rd & 15Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.33

Mikele Colasurdo run for 17 yds to the GAST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Mikele Colasurdo pass complete to KZ Adams for 3 yds to the GAST 41

2nd & 7Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +2.79

Mikele Colasurdo pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 41 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

KZ Adams run for 2 yds to the LSU 16

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

KZ Adams run for 4 yds to the LSU 12

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Terry Berdin Jr. run for 1 yd to the LSU 13

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.67

Mikele Colasurdo pass incomplete to Ja'Cyais Credle

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Trey Holly run for 1 yd to the LSU 14

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Trey Holly run for 6 yds to the LSU 20

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.70

Trey Holly run for 3 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.20

Trey Holly run for 9 yds to the LSU 32

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.22

Kaleb Jackson run for no gain to the LSU 32

Situational Analysis

Georgia State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
29%
24 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
27%
11 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
5 plays
4th
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play

LSU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
76%
25 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
100%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
100%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play