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← Back to GamesNov 12, 2023Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Texas A&M by 14.9

Home Win Probability

Texas A&M 81%

Market (Bovada)

Texas A&M -16.5

Edge: Mississippi State +16.5 (1.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 12, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
730010
Texas A&MTexas A&M
171714351

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-717-720-1034-1041-1048-1051-10
Texas A&MMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TAMSTAMSTAMSTAMSTAMSTAMSTAMSTAMSMSTAMSTAMSTAMSTATD680ydTO511ydPUNT59ydPUNT38ydTD531ydTO20ydFG4-1ydDOWNS49ydFG40ydFG1057ydTD672ydPUNT3-4ydTD860ydEND21ydPUNT34ydTD425ydTO955ydTD1080ydMISS1148ydFG842ydPUNT3-9ydDOWNS833ydPUNT36ydEND21yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Texas A&M
StatisticMississippi StateTexas A&M
Passing10-2111-21
Pass Yards104150
Rush Yards133246
Total Yards237396
Turnovers40
3rd Down3-134-11
Penalties12-1005-35
Possession29:3630:24

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Mike Wright
5/9, 68 YDS
rushing
Seth Davis
12 CAR, 79 YDS
receiving
Zavion Thomas
4 REC, 39 YDS
defense
Texas A&M
passing
Jaylen Henderson
11/19, 150 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Jaylen Henderson
12 CAR, 60 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Ainias Smith
4 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return Touchdown+94 yds

Zavion Thomas 94 Yd Kickoff Return (Kyle Ferrie Kick)

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Jaylen Henderson run for 12 yds to the TA&M 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 33

2nd & 9Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.27

Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 31 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Jaylen Henderson run for 6 yds to the MSST 30

2nd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.19

Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 13 yds to the MSST 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

HENDERSON, Jaylen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WALKER, Jahdae thrown to the MSU0; QB hurried by PURVIS, J.P.. PENALTY AM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on ZUHN III, Trey enforced 5 yards from the MSU17 to the MSU22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+48 yds

Kyle Ferrie kickoff for 48 yds , return for no gain to the TA&M 20 , return for no gain to the TA&M 20

1st & 15Rushing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.96

Jaylen Henderson run for 22 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Randy Bond kickoff for 65 yds , return for no gain to the MSST 26

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.93

Chris Parson run for 8 yds to the MSST 34

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 29

2nd & 7Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.04

Seth Davis run for 16 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 40

1st & 15Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Chris Parson pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 2 yds to the MSST 42

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Chris Parson pass incomplete

3rd & 13Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Zavion Thomas) to the MSST 37

3rd & 18Interception0 ydsPPA +0.11

Chris Parson pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Amari Daniels run for 5 yds to the MSST 42

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.46

Amari Daniels run for 5 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Jaylen Henderson run for 1 yd to the MSST 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 6 yds to the MSST 30

3rd & 3Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.59

Jaylen Henderson sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 8 yards to the MSST 38

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Nik Constantinou punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 5

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Seth Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 7

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Seth Davis run for 6 yds to the MSST 13

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.25

Seth Davis run for no gain to the MSST 13

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the MSST 31

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Rueben Owens run for 7 yds to the MSST 24

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Ainias Smith run for 4 yds to the MSST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jaylen Henderson run for 3 yds to the MSST 17

2nd & 7Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.80

Rueben Owens run for 16 yds to the MSST 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Amari Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Blair Zepeda kickoff for 60 yds , return for no gain to the MSST 12

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Seth Davis run for no gain to the MSST 12

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA +0.11

Chris Parson pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Amari Daniels run for 4 yds to the MSST 10

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jaylen Henderson run for 3 yds to the MSST 7

3rd & 3Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.23

Jaylen Henderson sacked by Jett Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the MSST 15

4th & 11Field Goal Good+33 yds

Randy Bond 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Zavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the MSST 28

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Mike Wright run for 6 yds to the MSST 34

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mike Wright run for no gain to the MSST 34

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.20

Mike Wright run for no gain to the MSST 34

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+52 yds

Randy Bond 52 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.39

Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 27 yds to the TA&M 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Simeon Price run for no gain to the TA&M 48

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Mike Wright run for 8 yds to the TA&M 40

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

PITTMAN, Jeffery rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the AM39 (JACKSON, McKinnley;DIGGS, Fadil). PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the AM40 to the AM45. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.32

Jeffery Pittman run for 14 yds to the TA&M 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the TA&M 26

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.16

Mike Wright run for 7 yds to the TA&M 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the TA&M 16

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the TA&M 16

3rd & 7Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.84

Mike Wright sacked by Taurean York for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 18

4th & 9Field Goal Good+35 yds

Kyle Ferrie 35 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Kyle Ferrie kickoff for 37 yds , return for no gain to the TA&M 28

1st & 10Rush+42 ydsPPA +3.04

Amari Daniels run for 42 yds to the MSST 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.70

Amari Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 31

2nd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.91

Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 12 yds to the MSST 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Rueben Owens run for no gain to the MSST 19

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +3.41

Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 19 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Seth Davis run for 1 yd to the MSST 26

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Mike Wright run for no gain to the MSST 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Mike Wright pass incomplete

4th & 9Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Zavion Thomas) to the MSST 21

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TA&M 40

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.53

Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Max Wright for 17 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Jaylen Henderson run for no gain to the MSST 43

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.56

Jaylen Henderson run for 14 yds to the MSST 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 6 yds to the MSST 23

2nd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.06

Rueben Owens run for 12 yds to the MSST 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Jaylen Henderson run for 11 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the MSST 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.54

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 26

0th & 8End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 5 yds to the TA&M 31

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Amari Daniels for 3 yds to the TA&M 29

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Nik Constantinou punt for 54 yds

1st & 10Rush+46 ydsPPA +3.48

Seth Davis run for 46 yds to the TA&M 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.16

Seth Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 37

3rd & 11Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Marcus Banks) to the TA&M 42

3rd & 16Fumble Return Touchdown+43 ydsPPA -8.07

Shemar Stewart 43 Yd Fumble Return (Randy Bond Kick)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.17

Jeffery Pittman run for 9 yds to the MSST 31

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Lideatrick Griffin run for 2 yds to the MSST 37

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the MSST 40

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.27

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 9 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.40

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 28 yds to the TA&M 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.34

Chris Parson pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Rueben Owens run for 5 yds to the TA&M 25

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

HENDERSON, Jaylen pass up the middle incomplete intended for SMITH, Ainias thrown to the AM40. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on RICHARDSON, Decamerion enforced 15 yards to the AM40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 35

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Rueben Owens run for 2 yds to the TA&M 37

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.92

Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 27 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jaylen Henderson run for 4 yds to the MSST 32

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Rueben Owens run for 5 yds to the MSST 27

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.79

Rueben Owens run for no gain to the MSST 27

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.07

Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

HENDERSON, Jaylen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for THOMAS, Noah thrown to the MSU4; QB hurried by KEYS, Chris. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on PRESTON JR., Shawn enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the MSU11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Rueben Owens run for no gain to the MSST 11

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.81

Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 11 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.57

Chris Parson pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 19 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.35

Chris Parson pass complete to Seth Davis for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the TA&M 47

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Seth Davis run for 1 yd to the TA&M 46

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Chris Parson pass incomplete

4th & 6Penalty+15 yds

PARSON, Chris pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROBERSON, Freddie thrown to the AM17, clock 14:12. PENALTY AM Pass Interference on HARMON, Deuce enforced 15 yards to the AM31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.24

Chris Parson run for 12 yds to the TA&M 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (John Lewis) to the TA&M 24

1st & 15Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.57

Creed Whittemore sacked by Demani Richardson for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 25

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Chris Parson pass incomplete

3rd & 16Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.07

Chris Parson sacked by Shemar Turner for a loss of 6 yards to the TA&M 31

4th & 22Blocked Field Goal+49 yds

Kyle Ferrie 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Earnest Crownover run for 6 yds to the TA&M 37

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.76

David Bailey run for 6 yds to the TA&M 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.37

David Bailey run for 19 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.41

David Bailey run for 14 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.65

Earnest Crownover run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 26

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 27

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete

4th & 13Field Goal Good+45 yds

Randy Bond 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Seth Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Chris Parson pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 3 yds to the MSST 30

3rd & 5Penalty-10 yds

PARSON, Chris scrambles up the middle for a gain of 11 yards to the MSU41 (THOMAS, Jayvon;BROOKS, Dalton). PENALTY MSU Holding on REESE IV, Albert enforced 10 yards from the MSU30 to the MSU20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 15Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.09

Chris Parson sacked by DJ Hicks and Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 16

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Marcel Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

David Bailey run for 3 yds to the MSST 47

3rd & 7Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.42

Marcel Reed run for 13 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.26

David Bailey run for 10 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Marcel Reed run for 3 yds to the MSST 21

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

David Bailey run for 4 yds to the MSST 17

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.52

Marcel Reed run for no gain to the MSST 17

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.63

Marcel Reed pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Chris Parson run for 1 yd to the MSST 18

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Chris Parson pass complete to Simeon Price for 5 yds to the MSST 23

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Chris Parson pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TA&M 36

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 35

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

David Bailey run for 2 yds to the TA&M 37

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
32%
22 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
47%
15 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Texas A&M

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
43%
28 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
83%
6 plays
55%
11 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
0%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays