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← Back to GamesNov 11, 2023Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan by 1.1

Home Win Probability

Penn State 41%

Market (Bovada)

Penn State +4

Edge: Penn State +4 (2.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 11, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MichiganMichigan
0143724
Penn StatePenn State
360615

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-79-149-1715-24
Penn StateMichigan

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MICPSMICPSMICPSMICPSMICPSMICPSMICPSMICPSMICPSMICPSMICPUNT54ydPUNT31ydPUNT37ydFG1366ydTD975ydPUNT39ydTD678ydTD1075ydEND14ydTO624ydFG1345ydPUNT621ydPUNT39ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT625ydPUNT31ydPUNT38ydDOWNS44ydTD130ydTD875ydEND510yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Michigan and Penn State
StatisticMichiganPenn State
Passing7-811-23
Pass Yards6074
Rush Yards227164
Total Yards287238
Turnovers01
3rd Down6-134-14
Penalties6-505-33
Possession33:1226:48

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Michigan
passing
J.J. McCarthy
7/8, 60 YDS
rushing
Blake Corum
26 CAR, 145 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Cornelius Johnson
2 REC, 24 YDS
defense
Penn State
passing
Drew Allar
10/22, 70 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Kaytron Allen
12 CAR, 72 YDS
receiving
Tyler Warren
2 REC, 25 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.73

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 12 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 41

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Michigan Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MICH 36

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 39

3rd & 8Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.79

J.J. McCarthy sacked by Dani Dennis-Sutton for a loss of 10 yards to the MICH 29

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 27

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Drew Allar pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Drew Allar pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Riley Thompson punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.86

Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 30 Blake Corum fumbled, recovered by MICH Blake Corum [SG] CORUM, Blake rush up the middle for no gain, CORUM, Blake fumbled at MIC30 forced by CARTER, Abdul, recovered by MIC CORUM, Blake at the MIC30, returned 0 yards to the MIC30, End of Play.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.39

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 7 yds to the MICH 37

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 32 yds, downed at the PSU 31

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PSU 31

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.66

Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the MICH 45

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.60

Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+9 yds

ALLAR, Drew pass to the right incomplete intended for LAMBERT-SMITH, KeAndre thrown to the MIC30. PENALTY MIC Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Will enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the MIC30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the MICH 24

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.06

Drew Allar run for 11 yds to the MICH 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the MICH 4

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the MICH 4

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.02

Drew Allar run for 1 yd to the MICH 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the MICH 3

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Drew Allar pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Drew Allar pass incomplete

4th & 3Field Goal Good+20 yds

Alex Felkins 20 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 13 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 39

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.90

Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 38

3rd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.97

J.J. McCarthy run for 13 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.02

Donovan Edwards run for 22 yds to the PSU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the PSU 23

2nd & 6Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.80

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 25

3rd & 8Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.53

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 19 yds to the PSU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Penalty+2 yds

EDWARDS, Donovan rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the PSU4 (DELUCA, Dominic;ELSDON, Tyler). PENALTY Before the snap, PSU Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the PSU6 to the PSU3. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Blake Corum run for 3 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds to the PSU 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.47

Drew Allar pass complete to Malick Meiga for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Drew Allar run for 1 yd to the PSU 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Riley Thompson punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.84

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 11 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 35

2nd & 8Rush+44 ydsPPA +3.40

Blake Corum run for 44 yds to the PSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.48

Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 22

2nd & 11Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.54

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for no gain to the PSU 22

3rd & 11Rushing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +3.65

Donovan Edwards run for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.84

Kaytron Allen run for 34 yds to the MICH 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the MICH 37

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.71

Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the MICH 36

3rd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.27

Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 37

4th & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.64

Drew Allar pass complete to Kaden Saunders for 13 yds to the MICH 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the MICH 20

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the MICH 19

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Drew Allar run for 4 yds to the MICH 15

4th & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.61

Kaytron Allen pass complete to Drew Allar for 4 yds to the MICH 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Drew Allar run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 29

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PSU 30

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PSU 30

3rd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.78

Drew Allar run for 8 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 6 yds to the PSU 44

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.73

Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 46

3rd & 2Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+3 ydsPPA -1.72

Drew Allar run for 3 yds to the PSU 49 Drew Allar fumbled, recovered by MICH Makari Paige [NHSG] QB Keeper ALLAR, Drew rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards, ALLAR, Drew fumbled at PSU48 forced by BENNY, Rayshaun, recovered by MIC PAIGE, Makari at the PSU49, returned 0 yards to the PSU49, End of Play, clock 11:40.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the PSU 47

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

J.J. McCarthy run for 6 yds to the PSU 41

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.95

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the PSU 36

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the PSU 29

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Blake Corum run for no gain to the PSU 29

4th & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.33

J.J. McCarthy run for 9 yds to the PSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the PSU 18

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.40

J.J. McCarthy run for 9 yds to the PSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.49

Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 12

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the PSU 10

3rd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the PSU 4

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 yds

James Turner 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.51

Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 6 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Drew Allar pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 2 yds to the PSU 40

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 6 yds to the PSU 46

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Riley Thompson punt for 51 yds, downed at the MICH 3

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

J.J. McCarthy run for 2 yds to the MICH 5

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.11

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 7

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MICH 12

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 47 yds , Daequan Hardy returns for no gain to the PSU 12 Penn State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PSU 28

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

ALLAR, Drew pass to the left incomplete intended for CEPHAS, Dante thrown to the PSU35. PENALTY MIC Offsides on HARRELL, Jaylen enforced 5 yards from the PSU28 to the PSU33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.13

Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 34

2nd & 4Penalty0 yds

Penn State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Drew Allar) to the PSU 25

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Drew Allar pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Riley Thompson punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 33

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the MICH 40

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.09

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

MCCARTHY, J.J. pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BARNER, AJ thrown to the PSU30. PENALTY PSU Pass Interference on KING, Kalen enforced 15 yards to the PSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Michigan Penalty, False Start (Karsen Barnhart) to the PSU 48

1st & 15Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.46

J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 17Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

J.J. McCarthy run for 7 yds to the PSU 43

3rd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.06

Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 44

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Daequan Hardy at the PSU 12

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 13

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Drew Allar pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.09

Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for no gain to the PSU 13

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Riley Thompson punt for 56 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 31

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the MICH 39

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.78

Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 39

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the PSU 30

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Drew Allar pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Drew Allar pass incomplete

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.14

Drew Allar pass incomplete

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.81

Blake Corum run for 30 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

ALLAR, Drew pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for SAUNDERS, Kaden broken up by JOHNSON, Quinten at the PSU43, clock 04:09. PENALTY MIC Unsportsmanlike Conduct on JOHNSON, Quinten enforced 15 yards from the PSU25 to the PSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.92

Kaytron Allen run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the MICH 44

2nd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.59

Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 11 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Drew Allar pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Drew Allar run for 11 yds to the MICH 22 for a 1ST down Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Cam Goode) to the MICH 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Penn State Penalty, False Start (Olumuyiwa Fashanu) to the MICH 16

1st & 15Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.23

Drew Allar run for 8 yds to the MICH 8

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Drew Allar pass incomplete

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.90

Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the PSU 43

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the PSU 39

3rd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.50

Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the PSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Kneel down by MCCARTHY, J.J. at PSU32 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Kneel down by MCCARTHY, J.J. at PSU34 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
19%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
73%
11 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

Penn State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
58%
19 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
33%
9 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
100%
2 plays