Skip to main content
← Back to GamesNov 4, 2023Week 10
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 2.3

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 54%

Market (Bovada)

Mississippi State +5.5

Edge: Mississippi State +5.5 (7.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 4, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
KentuckyKentucky
7143024
Mississippi StateMississippi State
03003

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-73-73-213-24
Mississippi StateKentucky

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSKENMSKENMSKENMSMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSPUNT32ydTD862ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT418ydFG2088ydPUNT420ydTD10ydPUNT3-2ydTD963ydDOWNS738ydPUNT38ydPUNT520ydFG1272ydPUNT31ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT3-1ydDOWNS615ydDOWNS1541ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT3-10ydPUNT3-1ydEND112yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Kentucky and Mississippi State
StatisticKentuckyMississippi State
Passing15-2517-35
Pass Yards161145
Rush Yards11073
Total Yards271218
Turnovers01
3rd Down4-126-17
Penalties6-459-68
Possession30:3829:22

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Kentucky
passing
Devin Leary
13/22, 156 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Re'Mahn Davis
21 CAR, 80 YDS
receiving
Tayvion Robinson
5 REC, 91 YDS
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Mike Wright
11/21, 78 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Seth Davis
4 CAR, 24 YDS
receiving
Zavion Thomas
6 REC, 44 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the MSST 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Mike Wright pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 35 yds, downed at the UK 38

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.43

Ray Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 36

2nd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 6 yds to the UK 42

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.24

Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 7 yds to the UK 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +1.38

Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 37 yds to the MSST 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 12

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.35

Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 8 yds to the MSST 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Chance Poore kickoff for 65 yds , return for no gain to the MSST 30

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.99

Zavion Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 29

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

Seth Davis run for no gain to the MSST 29

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Mike Wright pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.51

Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 16 yds to the UK 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -2.00

Ray Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 44

2nd & 14Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Devin Leary pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 5

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.34

Mike Wright pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the MSST 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.06

Simeon Price run for 16 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

PITTMAN, Jeffery rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the MSU35 (AFARI JR., Alex;JACKSON, D'Eryk). PENALTY UK Offsides on RYBKA, Tre'vonn enforced 5 yards from the MSU32 to the MSU37 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Zavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the MSST 41

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.10

Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the MSST 48

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the UK 48

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.04

Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the UK 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 2 yds to the UK 43

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the UK 40

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

(15:00) WRIGHT, Mike pass up the middle complete for 19 yards to ROBINSON, Justin caught at the UK26 and advanced to the UK21 (WALKER, Deone). PENALTY MSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SMITH, Cole enforced 5 yards from the UK40 to the UK45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.67

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 13 yds to the UK 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the UK 30

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.56

Mike Wright pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 9 yds to the UK 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Mike Wright pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 3 yds to the UK 18

2nd & 7Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.21

Mike Wright sacked by Zion Childress for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 24

3rd & 13Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.44

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 13 yds to the UK 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the UK 11

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 2 yds to the UK 9

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the UK 7

4th & 6Field Goal Good+25 yds

Kyle Ferrie 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 13 yds to the UK 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Ramon Jefferson run for no gain to the UK 38

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Devin Leary run for 7 yds to the UK 45

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 32 yds, downed at the MSST 23

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown+28 ydsPPA -7.79

D'Eryk Jackson 28 Yd Interception Return (Alex Raynor Kick)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Seth Davis run for 5 yds to the MSST 30

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.86

Mike Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 29

3rd & 6Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.48

Mike Wright sacked by Alex Afari Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 55 yds, downed at the UK 37

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.56

Ray Davis run for 8 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the MSST 42

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.76

Ray Davis run for 9 yds to the MSST 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 30

2nd & 7Rush+22 ydsPPA +0.78

Barion Brown run for 22 yds to the MSST 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Penalty0 yds

DAVIS, Ray rush to the right for no gain to the MSU8 (JOHNSON, Jett;WATSON, Nathaniel). PENALTY MSU Personal Foul on PAGE, DeShawn enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the MSU8 to the MSU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Devin Leary pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.01

Ray Davis run for 9 yds to the UK 46

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Dane Key 4 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick)

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Mike Wright run for 12 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Mike Wright pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 7 yds to the MSST 39

2nd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.99

Mike Wright pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Mike Wright run for 8 yds to the UK 42

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.71

Mike Wright pass incomplete

0th & 2End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.70

Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for no gain to the UK 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 8 yds to the UK 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Devin Leary pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 44 yds, downed at the MSST 23

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Mike Wright run for 6 yds to the MSST 29

2nd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.24

Lideatrick Griffin run for 12 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the MSST 43

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Mike Wright pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 15

1st & 10Penalty-7 yds

Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Kattus) to the UK 9

1st & 16Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.21

Ray Davis run for 14 yds to the UK 23

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.14

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the UK 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the UK 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.52

Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 28 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the MSST 38

2nd & 4Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.51

Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 19 yds to the MSST 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Devin Leary pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the MSST 13

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Devin Leary pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+32 yds

Alex Raynor 32 Yd Field Goal

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Chance Poore kickoff for 65 yds , return for no gain to the MSST 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 6 yds to the MSST 16

2nd & 4Rush-6 ydsPPA -0.71

Mike Wright run for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 10

3rd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.06

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 1 yd to the MSST 11

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the MSST 44

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.42

Ramon Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 46

2nd & 12Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.80

Devin Leary sacked by Nathaniel Watson and Jaden Crumedy for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 49

3rd & 17Penalty-5 yds

Kentucky Penalty, Delay Of Game (Devin Leary) to the UK 44

3rd & 22Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Ramon Jefferson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 18

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the MSST 13

1st & 15Penalty-7 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Kameron Jones) to the MSST 10

2nd & 18Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.05

Chris Parson pass complete to Justin Robinson for 7 yds to the MSST 17

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Chris Parson pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Barion Brown at the UK 49

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 49

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.86

Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Dane Key for 11 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 38

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the MSST 33

3rd & 3Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.66

Ray Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 36

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.77

Kaiya Sheron pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.33

Chris Parson pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 34 yds to the UK 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Chris Parson pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 3 yds to the UK 27

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Chris Parson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Chris Parson run for 11 yds to the UK 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Chris Parson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Chris Parson pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 3 yds to the UK 13

3rd & 7Penalty-15 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (Steven Losoya III) to the UK 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Chris Parson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Chris Parson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Jeffery Pittman run for 6 yds to the UK 14

4th & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.10

Chris Parson pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 12 yds to the UK 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the UK 2

2nd & 2Penalty0 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Chris Parson) to the UK 18

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Chris Parson pass incomplete

4th & 18Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.13

Chris Parson sacked by J.J. Weaver for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 23

1st & 10Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -1.01

Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Barion Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 17

2nd & 16Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.05

Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the UK 23

3rd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.16

Ray Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 22

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 46

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.72

Chris Parson sacked by Tre'vonn Rybka and Tavion Gadson for a loss of 10 yards to the MSST 36

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Chris Parson pass incomplete

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Chris Parson pass incomplete

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 18 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Ray Davis run for 7 yds to the MSST 47

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Ramon Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MSST 45

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Ramon Jefferson run for no gain to the MSST 45

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

JEFFERSON, Ramon rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the MSU37 (MITCHELL, Nic;NICHOLSON, DeCarlos). PENALTY Before the snap, UK Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MSU45 to the UK50. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

Kentucky Penalty, Delay Of Game (Demie Sumo-Karngbaye) to the UK 45

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 13

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.62

Seth Davis run for 12 yds to the MSST 25 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
26%
19 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
67%
9 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
42%
24 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
20%
5 plays
10%
10 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
50%
8 plays
20%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
0%
1 play