Skip to main content
← Back to GamesNov 4, 2023Week 10
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Nebraska by 5.2

Home Win Probability

Michigan State 38%

Market (Bovada)

Michigan State +3

Edge: Nebraska -3 (2.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 4, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NebraskaNebraska
0100717
Michigan StateMichigan State
373720

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-710-710-1013-1020-1020-17
Michigan StateNebraska

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBFG871ydPUNT33ydPUNT35ydTO1034ydPUNT32ydTD1059ydTD675ydPUNT421ydPUNT33ydFG1274ydEND16ydPUNT629ydFG1253ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT5-1ydPUNT31ydTD438ydPUNT33ydPUNT37ydTO641ydPUNT39ydTD465ydPUNT36ydTO36ydMISS41ydEND31yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Nebraska and Michigan State
StatisticNebraskaMichigan State
Passing12-2815-24
Pass Yards129232
Rush Yards14863
Total Yards277295
Turnovers30
3rd Down5-153-14
Penalties0-07-70
Possession31:3128:29

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Nebraska
passing
Heinrich Haarberg
12/28, 129 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Emmett Johnson
13 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Thomas Fidone Jr.
3 REC, 43 YDS
defense
Michigan State
passing
Katin Houser
13/20, 165 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Nathan Carter
15 CAR, 50 YDS
receiving
Montorie Foster
4 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 13

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the MSU 18

3rd & 3Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.71

Katin Houser pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 17 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +2.64

Katin Houser pass complete to Jaylan Franklin for 46 yds to the NEB 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the NEB 18

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Katin Houser pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+35 yds

Jonathan Kim 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Joshua Fleeks run for 6 yds to the NEB 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.19

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Alex Bullock for a loss of 3 yards to the NEB 28

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 27

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.88

Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 26

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the MSU 32

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 53 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 5 yds to the NEB 20

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.94

Emmett Johnson run for 11 yds to the NEB 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.51

Anthony Grant run for 16 yds to the NEB 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Jaylen Lloyd run for 6 yds to the MSU 47

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds to the MSU 45

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.27

Heinrich Haarberg run for 3 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.02

Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Maverick Hansen for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 47

2nd & 15Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.44

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Jaylen Lloyd for a loss of 4 yards to the NEB 49

3rd & 19Interception0 ydsPPA -0.25

Heinrich Haarberg pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Nathan Carter run for 7 yds to the MSU 11

2nd & 3Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.66

Sam Leavitt sacked by Mikai Gbayor and Luke Reimer for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 6

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 53 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Joshua Fleeks run for 3 yds to the NEB 44

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 47

3rd & 4Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.78

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 27 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Anthony Grant run for no gain to the MSU 26

3rd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.27

Emmett Johnson run for 11 yds to the MSU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the MSU 12

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.97

Joshua Fleeks run for 8 yds to the MSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.75

Emmett Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 5

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Heinrich Haarberg run for 5 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for 9 yds to the MSU 34

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.36

Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 46

2nd & 7Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +2.37

Alante Brown pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 42 yds to the NEB 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the NEB 17

1st & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the NEB 11

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.76

Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 11 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Alex Bullock for 22 yds to the NEB 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.12

Anthony Grant run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 46

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 22

2nd & 18Rush0 ydsPPA -0.06

Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 12

3rd & 18Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.33

Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 16 yds to the MSU 28

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

Michigan State Penalty, False Start (Montorie Foster Jr.) to the MSU 23

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

HOUSER, Katin scrambles up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the MSU29, End of Play. PENALTY MSU Holding on BROWN, Spencer enforced 10 yards from the MSU22 to the MSU12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 57 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Heinrich Haarberg run for 1 yd to the NEB 21

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.65

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 11 yds to the NEB 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 35

2nd & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.28

Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Khris Bogle for a loss of 7 yards to the NEB 28

3rd & 14Penalty+15 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the MSU 40

2nd & 9Penalty+15 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaden Mangham) to the MSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

HAARBERG, Heinrich pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BONNER, Janiran thrown to the MSU3. PENALTY MSU Holding on TATUM, Dillon NEB Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BENHART, Bryce , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dillon Tatum) to the MSU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds to the MSU 9

3rd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Joshua Fleeks for 3 yds to the MSU 6

4th & 5Field Goal Good+24 yds

Tristan Alvano 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Nathan Carter run for 6 yds to the MSU 31

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the NEB 28

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.52

Anthony Grant run for 11 yds to the NEB 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.01

Emmett Johnson run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Heinrich Haarberg run for no gain to the 50 yard line

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Anthony Grant run for 4 yds to the MSU 46

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.10

Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 28 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 5 yds to the MSU 47

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Alante Brown run for 4 yds to the NEB 49

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.17

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.18

Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the NEB 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the NEB 45

2nd & 8Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.72

Katin Houser pass complete to Jaren Mangham for a loss of 3 yards to the NEB 48

3rd & 11Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.98

Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 14 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the NEB 33

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

Nathan Carter run for no gain to the NEB 33

3rd & 9Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.02

Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for no gain to the NEB 33

4th & 9Field Goal Good+50 yds

Jonathan Kim 50 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Anthony Grant run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 23

2nd & 12Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.31

Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Jalen Thompson and Jordan Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 21

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 28 yds, downed at the NEB 49

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the NEB 44

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.61

Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 7 yds to the NEB 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.42

Katin Houser sacked by Cameron Lenhardt for a loss of 8 yards to the NEB 45

2nd & 18Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the NEB 43

3rd & 16Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.17

Katin Houser sacked by James Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Joshua Fleeks run for 2 yds to the NEB 9

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the NEB 12

3rd & 5Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.21

Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 4 yards to the NEB 8

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Montorie Foster Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Nathan Carter run for 6 yds to the NEB 32

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.92

Sam Leavitt run for 7 yds to the NEB 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 25 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Jalen Thompson and Maverick Hansen for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Ty Hahn for 5 yds to the NEB 28

4th & 7Blocked Punt0 yds

punt blocked by blocked by

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.65

Alante Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 33

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Katin Houser pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.58

Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 11 yds to the MSU 44

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +1.75

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Malachi Coleman for 30 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 6 yds to the NEB 42

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 45

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds to the NEB 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.75

Heinrich Haarberg pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the MSU 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Katin Houser pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the MSU 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 31 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.63

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Alex Bullock for 18 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+43 ydsPPA +2.98

Heinrich Haarberg run for 43 yds to the MSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Emmett Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 4 yds to the MSU 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 25

3rd & 7Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.30

Heinrich Haarberg sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the NEB 28

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Alante Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 29

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the NEB 27

3rd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Nathan Carter run for no gain to the NEB 27

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+44 yds

Jonathan Kim 44 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Malachi Coleman for 9 yds to the NEB 36

2nd & 1Penalty+10 yds

HAARBERG, Heinrich pass to the left incomplete intended for DOSS, Jaidyn thrown to the NEB50. PENALTY MSU Holding on SPENCER, Malik enforced 10 yards from the NEB36 to the NEB46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Sack-18 ydsPPA -3.09

Heinrich Haarberg sacked for a loss of 18 yards to the NEB 28

2nd & 28Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete

Situational Analysis

Nebraska

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
32%
28 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
27%
15 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
25%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
21 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
44%
9 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play