Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 28, 2023Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Minnesota by 14.2

Home Win Probability

Minnesota 81%

Market (Bovada)

Minnesota -6.5

Edge: Minnesota -6.5 (7.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Michigan StateMichigan State
600612
MinnesotaMinnesota
01001727

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-30-63-610-617-617-1224-1227-12
MinnesotaMichigan State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MINMSMINMSMINMSMINMSMINMSMINMSMINMSMSMINMSMINMSMINMSMINMSMINMSMINTO21ydFG45ydTO58ydFG49ydPUNT38ydPUNT31ydPUNT520ydPUNT632ydMISS1375ydPUNT33ydFG853ydPUNT435ydTD894ydEND110ydPUNT37ydPUNT30ydMISS852ydTO628ydPUNT435ydTD987ydTD875ydTD746ydTO2-4ydFG49ydTO854ydEND2-5yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Michigan State and Minnesota
StatisticMichigan StateMinnesota
Passing20-3414-22
Pass Yards190200
Rush Yards109200
Total Yards299400
Turnovers23
3rd Down4-136-13
Penalties4-443-35
Possession23:4536:15

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Michigan State
passing
Katin Houser
12/22, 117 YDS
rushing
Sam Leavitt
6 CAR, 52 YDS
receiving
Montorie Foster
4 REC, 55 YDS
defense
Minnesota
passing
Athan Kaliakmanis
14/22, 200 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jordan Nubin
40 CAR, 204 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Daniel Jackson
7 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the MINN 26 Sean Tyler fumbled, recovered by MSU Jaden Mangham [NHSG] TYLER, Sean rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard, TYLER, Sean fumbled at UMN26 forced by HARMON, Derrick, recovered by MSU MANGHAM, Jaden at the UMN26, returned 0 yards to the UMN26, End of Play, clock 14:41.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Nathan Carter run for 6 yds to the MINN 20

3rd & 4Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.76

Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 21

4th & 5Field Goal Good+38 yds

Jonathan Kim 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jordan Nubin run for 5 yds to the MINN 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.52

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 13 yds to the MINN 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-8 ydsPPA -2.38

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Sean Tyler for a loss of 8 yards to the MINN 35

2nd & 18Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.07

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 12 yds to the MINN 47

3rd & 6Sack-14 ydsPPA -1.56

Athan Kaliakmanis sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the MINN 33

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.66

Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 9 yds to the MINN 24

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 1Field Goal Good+42 yds

Jonathan Kim 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MINN 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MINN 30

3rd & 5Penalty-10 yds

NUBIN, Jordan rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the UMN35 (HALADAY, Cal). PENALTY UMN Holding on JOHNSON, Greg enforced 10 yards from the UMN30 to the UMN20. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 15Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.40

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 13 yds to the MINN 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Katin Houser pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 54 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Jordan Nubin run for 7 yds to the MINN 41

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Jordan Nubin run for 7 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jordan Nubin run for 4 yds to the MSU 48

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MSU 46

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 7

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Alante Brown run for 5 yds to the MSU 12

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.66

Katin Houser pass complete to Harold Joiner III for 6 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

HOUSER, Katin pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for GATES JR., Antonio thrown to the UMN47. PENALTY UMN Pass Interference on WALLEY, Justin enforced 15 yards to the MSU33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 36

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 3 yds to the MSU 39

3rd & 4Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.66

Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for no gain to the MSU 39

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the MINN 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Nick Kallerup for 4 yds to the MINN 12

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jordan Nubin run for 5 yds to the MINN 17

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.39

Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the MINN 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MINN 21

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Jordan Nubin run for 6 yds to the MINN 27

3rd & 2Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.84

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 13 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.97

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 31 yds to the MSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MSU 27

3rd & 8Penalty+10 yds

KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass to the right incomplete intended for SPANN-FORD, Brevyn broken up by TATUM, Dillon at the MSU19. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on TATUM, Dillon enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the MSU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 18

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the MSU 17

4th & 10Blocked Field Goal+35 yds

Dragan Kesich 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Katin Houser pass complete to Alante Brown for 2 yds to the MSU 22

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 23

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the MINN 40

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jordan Nubin run for 4 yds to the MINN 44

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.16

Jordan Nubin run for 7 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.81

Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Derrick Harmon and Jalen Sami for a loss of 9 yards to the MINN 42

2nd & 19Penalty+30 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Khris Bogle) to the MSU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Jordan Nubin run for 6 yds to the MSU 8

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Jordan Nubin run for 1 yd to the MSU 7

4th & 3Field Goal Good+25 yds

Dragan Kesich 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.84

Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 34 yds to the MINN 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MINN 40

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 34 yds, downed at the MINN 6

1st & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.38

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 13 yds to the MINN 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.39

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 18 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jordan Nubin run for 6 yds to the MINN 43

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.81

Jordan Nubin run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +1.22

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 30 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MSU 17

2nd & 7Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.00

Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Jordan Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 22

3rd & 12Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +3.73

Daniel Jackson 22 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Dragan Kesich Kick)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Nathan Carter run for 10 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Katin Houser run for 5 yds to the MSU 25

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 27

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 27

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.54

Jordan Nubin run for no gain to the MINN 33

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 55 yds, downed at the MSU 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 6 yds to the MSU 18

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 20

3rd & 2Penalty+10 yds

HOUSER, Katin pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MOSLEY, Tre thrown to the MSU45. PENALTY UMN Holding on JONES, Tre'Von enforced 10 yards from the MSU20 to the MSU30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.13

Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 12 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.37

Nathan Carter run for 18 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

CARTER, Nate rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the UMN41 (HENDERSON, Jack;RICHTER, Logan). PENALTY MSU Holding on SAMAC, Nick enforced 10 yards from the UMN40 to the MSU50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the MINN 49

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Katin Houser pass incomplete

3rd & 19Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.43

Katin Houser pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 13 yds to the MINN 36

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+53 yds

Jonathan Kim 53 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Jordan Nubin run for 1 yd to the MINN 37

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Jordan Nubin run for 1 yd to the MINN 38

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.59

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 10 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.87

Jordan Nubin run for 13 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MSU 36

2nd & 7Interception0 ydsPPA -3.60

Athan Kaliakmanis pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.29

Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 30 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the MSU 46

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 3 yds to the MSU 49

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the MINN 13

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MINN 16

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.79

Jordan Nubin run for 9 yds to the MINN 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Jordan Nubin run for 8 yds to the MINN 33

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.02

Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Jordan Nubin run for 7 yds to the MINN 43

2nd & 3Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.30

Athan Kaliakmanis run for 18 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MSU 37

2nd & 8Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.99

Jordan Nubin run for 19 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Jordan Nubin run for 18 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Sam Leavitt run for 6 yds to the MSU 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.10

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Nathan Carter for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 29

3rd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.60

Sam Leavitt run for 6 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.23

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jaron Glover for 29 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Sam Leavitt run for 9 yds to the MINN 27

2nd & 1Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA -0.40

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jaron Glover for 5 yds to the MINN 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.22

Sam Leavitt run for 13 yds to the MINN 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MSU 44

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MSU 41

3rd & 5Penalty+10 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jalen Thompson) to the MSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jordan Nubin run for 5 yds to the MSU 19

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.57

Jordan Nubin run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 20

3rd & 6Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.97

Jordan Nubin run for 18 yds to the MSU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.49

Sam Leavitt sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 21

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Jordan Nubin run for 4 yds to the MSU 17

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MSU 14

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MSU 12

4th & 1Field Goal Good+31 yds

Dragan Kesich 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 12 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Nathan Carter for 5 yds to the MSU 42

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.13

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Nathan Carter for 7 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 8 yds to the MINN 43

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.59

Sam Leavitt run for 22 yds to the MINN 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.37

Sam Leavitt pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

[NH] Kneel down by KALIAKMANIS, Athan at UMN11 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.12

[NH] Kneel down by KALIAKMANIS, Athan at UMN8 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
56%
25 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
40%
10 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
33%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
0%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th

Minnesota

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
38%
32 plays
2nd
100%
3 plays
57%
7 plays
33%
12 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
4th