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← Back to GamesOct 28, 2023Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Auburn by 0.3

Home Win Probability

Auburn 50%

Market (Bovada)

Auburn -6.5

Edge: Mississippi State +6.5 (6.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
303713
AuburnAuburn
14103027

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-314-317-324-627-627-13
AuburnMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBTD875ydFG1165ydTD575ydPUNT422ydPUNT752ydPUNT518ydFG631ydPUNT38ydPUNT3-5ydDOWNS620ydTD868ydEND1-1ydFG1250ydFG1244ydTD775ydPUNT39ydPUNT32ydPUNT39ydTO634ydPUNT3-2ydDOWNS1137ydEND663yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Auburn
StatisticMississippi StateAuburn
Passing16-3220-26
Pass Yards161230
Rush Yards184186
Total Yards345416
Turnovers10
3rd Down2-124-11
Penalties8-707-52
Possession30:4429:16

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Mike Wright
16/32, 161 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Mike Wright
14 CAR, 63 YDS
receiving
Zavion Thomas
9 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Auburn
passing
Payton Thorne
20/26, 230 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Jarquez Hunter
17 CAR, 144 YDS
receiving
Ja'Varrius Johnson
2 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Jarquez Hunter run for 11 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 40

2nd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.83

Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 15 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the MSST 38

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Auburn Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 43

3rd & 8Penalty+5 yds

THORNE, Payton pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HOOKS, Shane thrown to the MSU15. PENALTY MSU Offsides on PICKERING, Nathan enforced 5 yards from the MSU43 to the MSU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.01

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 4 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 7 yds to the MSST 27

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.55

Payton Thorne pass complete to Shane Hooks for 27 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.73

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 32 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.57

Lideatrick Griffin run for 17 yds to the AUB 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the AUB 23

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Lideatrick Griffin run for 1 yd to the AUB 22

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 5 yds to the AUB 17

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.66

Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the AUB 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the AUB 10

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Mike Wright run for no gain to the AUB 10

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Mike Wright pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+29 yds

Kyle Ferrie 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 6 yds to the AUB 31

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 6 yds to the AUB 45

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.98

Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 10 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+45 ydsPPA +3.48

Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 45 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Seth Davis run for 6 yds to the MSST 41

2nd & 4Penalty+10 yds

WRIGHT, Mike pass deep to the left complete for 18 yards to THOMAS, Zavion caught at the AU41 and advanced to the AU41, out of bounds. PENALTY AU Holding on SIMPSON, Jaylin enforced 10 yards from the MSU41 to the AU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Seth Davis run for 1 yd to the AUB 48

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 4 yds to the AUB 44

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the AUB 43

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds, downed at the AUB 3

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 9

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Robby Ashford run for 6 yds to the AUB 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 16

2nd & 9Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.98

Jarquez Hunter run for 32 yds to the AUB 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.88

Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the MSST 44

2nd & 2Penalty-15 yds

THORNE, Payton pass to the right complete for 14 yards to HOOKS, Shane caught at the MSU30 and advanced to the MSU30, out of bounds. PENALTY AU Pass Interference on HOOKS, Shane enforced 15 yards to the AU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 17Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.17

Payton Thorne pass complete to Brian Battie for 11 yds to the MSST 48

3rd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 3 yds to the MSST 45

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Oscar Chapman punt for 42 yds, downed at the MSST 3

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.29

Jeffery Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 2

2nd & 11Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.63

Mike Wright run for 13 yds to the MSST 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 5 yds to the MSST 20

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the MSST 21

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Mike Wright pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

THORNE, Payton pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Ja'Varrius thrown to the MSU10. PENALTY MSU Offsides on ANDERSON, Deonte enforced 5 yards from the AU48 to the MSU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Penalty+10 yds

THORNE, Payton pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BURTON, Caleb thrown to the MSU25. PENALTY MSU Holding on PRESTON JR., Shawn enforced 10 yards from the MSU47 to the MSU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Damari Alston run for 5 yds to the MSST 32

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the MSST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 5 yds to the MSST 21

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+39 yds

Alex McPherson 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Jeffery Pittman run for 8 yds to the MSST 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Mike Wright pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 54 yds, downed at the AUB 13

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.50

Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 11

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the AUB 13

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Auburn Penalty, False Start (Dillon Wade) to the AUB 8

3rd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.03

Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 8

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Oscar Chapman punt for 44 yds, downed at the MSST 48

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.15

Seth Davis run for 9 yds to the AUB 43

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.28

Seth Davis run for 4 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Mike Wright run for 7 yds to the AUB 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the AUB 30

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -2.97

Mike Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 32

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 38

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.53

Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 14 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 11 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.23

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 21 yds to the MSST 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the MSST 7

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +1.95

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Alex McPherson kickoff for 39 yds , return for no gain to the MSST 26

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Kneel down by WRIGHT, Mike at MSU25 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Robinson) to the MSST 17

1st & 20Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.24

Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the MSST 22 Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Freddie Roberson) to the MSST 10

1st & 27Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.04

Mike Wright run for 7 yds to the MSST 17

2nd & 20Penalty+10 yds

WRIGHT, Mike pass short to the right incomplete thrown to the MSU18; QB hurried by JAMES, DJ. PENALTY AU Holding on HARRIS, Marcus enforced 10 yards from the MSU17 to the MSU27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.84

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 12 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jeffery Pittman run for 6 yds to the MSST 45

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.23

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+37 ydsPPA +3.09

Seth Davis run for 37 yds to the AUB 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Seth Davis run for 2 yds to the AUB 16

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the AUB 14

3rd & 6Rush-9 ydsPPA -2.04

Zavion Thomas run for a loss of 9 yards to the AUB 23

4th & 15Field Goal Good+40 yds

Kyle Ferrie 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Auburn Penalty, False Start (Kam Stutts) to the AUB 20

1st & 15Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.99

Payton Thorne run for 14 yds to the AUB 34

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 9 yds to the AUB 47

2nd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -2.18

Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 44

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.84

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 5 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Brian Battie run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 48

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the AUB 49

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +3.01

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 14 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the MSST 36

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.71

Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the MSST 35

3rd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 4 yds to the MSST 31

4th & 4Field Goal Good+49 yds

Alex McPherson 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 19 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Steven Losoya III) to the MSST 39

1st & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the MSST 39

2nd & 15Rush+22 ydsPPA +3.31

Jeffery Pittman run for 22 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Mike Wright pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 1 yd to the AUB 38

2nd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.02

Mike Wright run for 11 yds to the AUB 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.19

Mike Wright run for 13 yds to the AUB 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.55

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 14 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Nick Barr-Mira kickoff for 65 yds , return for no gain to the AUB 14

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 17

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 17

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 6 yds to the AUB 23

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Oscar Chapman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 33

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.10

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 32

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the MSST 35

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Mike Wright pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 33 yds, downed at the AUB 32

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the AUB 33

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the AUB 39

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the AUB 41

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Oscar Chapman punt for 59 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.14

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 15 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 38

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (John Lewis) to the MSST 33

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.47

Mike Wright pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 21 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.43

Mike Wright pass intercepted by Zion Puckett

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.28

Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 5

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

3rd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.03

Payton Thorne run for no gain to the AUB 3

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Oscar Chapman punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.35

Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 49

2nd & 11Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.18

Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 15 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the AUB 35

3rd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Mike Wright pass complete to Creed Whittemore for 7 yds to the AUB 28

4th & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.27

Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the AUB 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.16

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 11 yds to the AUB 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Mike Wright pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 2 yds to the AUB 13

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Mike Wright pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.46

Mike Wright pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.00

Jarquez Hunter run for 17 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+50 ydsPPA +3.07

Jarquez Hunter run for 50 yds to the MSST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.01

Payton Thorne run for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 26

2nd & 16Rush-9 ydsPPA -2.58

run for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 35

3rd & 25Penalty+15 yds

THORNE, Payton pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for KELLY, Omari thrown to the MSU2. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on RICHARDSON, Decamerion enforced 15 yards to the MSU20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

[NH] Kneel down by THORNE, Payton at MSU22 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

[NH] Kneel down by THORNE, Payton at MSU24 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
41%
27 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
3 plays
45%
11 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play

Auburn

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
52%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
83%
6 plays
63%
8 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th