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← Back to GamesOct 24, 2023Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Liberty by 4.9

Home Win Probability

Western Kentucky 35%

Market (Bovada)

Western Kentucky +4

Edge: Liberty -4 (0.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 24, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LibertyLiberty
7772142
Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky
7301929

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-07-710-1410-2110-2816-2822-4229-42
Western KentuckyLiberty

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20WKLIBWKLIBWKLIBWKLIBWKLIBLIBWKLIBWKLIBWKLIBWKLIBWKLIBTD1375ydTD775ydPUNT618ydPUNT718ydFG955ydTD875ydMISS1157ydPUNT510ydTO431ydEND12ydPUNT37ydPUNT37ydTD983ydPUNT725ydTD1080ydTD875ydTD675ydTD163ydTD975ydTD678ydEND49yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Liberty and Western Kentucky
StatisticLibertyWestern Kentucky
Passing10-1530-44
Pass Yards169365
Rush Yards323119
Total Yards492484
Turnovers01
3rd Down2-98-14
Penalties4-557-57
Possession33:0726:53

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Liberty
passing
Kaidon Salter
10/15, 169 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Kaidon Salter
13 CAR, 117 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
C.J. Daniels
3 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Western Kentucky
passing
Austin Reed
30/44, 365 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Elijah Young
8 CAR, 61 YDS
receiving
Dalvin Smith
8 REC, 79 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 3 yds to the WKU 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the WKU 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.74

Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 9 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +1.72

Elijah Young run for 27 yds to the LIB 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin Smith

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 3 yds to the LIB 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.10

Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 11 yds to the LIB 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Austin Reed run for 3 yds to the LIB 14

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the LIB 11

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.91

Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 6 yds to the LIB 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 1 yd to the LIB 6

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the LIB 2

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the LIB 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.82

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 18 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the WKU 46

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Aaron Bedgood

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.88

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 8 yds to the WKU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.48

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 18 yds to the WKU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Kaidon Salter run for 20 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the WKU 36

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Xavier Shaw

3rd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.00

Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 15 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 2 yds to the LIB 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi Corley

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi Corley

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Tom Ellard punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Quinton Cooley run for 7 yds to the LIB 15

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Aaron Bedgood run for 2 yds to the LIB 17

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the LIB 17

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.72

Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the LIB 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the LIB 19

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 7 yds to the LIB 26

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Treon Sibley

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Max Morgan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 4 yds to the WKU 41

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.21

Elijah Young run for 7 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.91

Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 14 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.37

Elijah Young run for 12 yds to the LIB 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.17

Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 12 yds to the LIB 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the LIB 12

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the LIB 8

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Elijah Young

4th & 4Field Goal Good+26 yds

Lucas Carneiro 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Billy Lucas run for 6 yds to the LIB 31

2nd & 4Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.47

Kaidon Salter sacked by Sebastian Benjamin for a loss of 8 yards to the LIB 23

3rd & 12Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.41

Kaidon Salter run for 11 yds to the LIB 34

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.95

Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Billy Lucas run for 5 yds to the LIB 44

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Billy Lucas run for 4 yds to the LIB 48

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the LIB 48

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY WKU Offside (Key,Aaron) 5 yards from LIB48 to WKU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+47 ydsPPA +3.61

Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 47 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Markese Stepp run for 7 yds to the WKU 32

2nd & 3Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.29

Markese Stepp run for 14 yds to the WKU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass complete short left to Corley,Malachi for 10 yards to the LIB44 (Green,Brylan) PENALTY WKU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Leslie,Quantavious) 5 yards from WKU46 to WKU41. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the WKU 44

2nd & 12Penalty+15 yds

Liberty Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the LIB 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the LIB 31

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 7 yds to the LIB 24

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Markese Stepp run for 6 yds to the LIB 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short right to Helms,River PENALTY WKU Illegal Formation (Jackson,Marshall) 5 yards from LIB18 to LIB23. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the LIB 21

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Easton Messer

3rd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the LIB 18

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+36 yds

Lucas Carneiro 36 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Kaidon Salter run for 12 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the LIB 35

2nd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.97

Kaidon Salter run for 24 yds to the WKU 41 Liberty Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Henderson) to the LIB 30

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to CJ Daniels

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Treon Sibley

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Max Morgan punt for 31 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.09

Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 12 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.95

Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 19 yds to the LIB 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin Smith

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.63

Austin Reed pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 22

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.70

Aaron Bedgood run for no gain to the LIB 25 Aaron Bedgood fumbled, recovered by LIB Aaron Bedgood

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 3 yds to the LIB 28

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the LIB 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Max Morgan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 35

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the WKU 42

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Easton Messer

4th & 3Punt+6 yds

Tom Ellard punt for 47 yds , Brylan Green returns for 6 yds to the LIB 17

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.76

Quinton Cooley run for 12 yds to the LIB 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.59

Aaron Bedgood run for 17 yds to the LIB 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.21

Quinton Cooley run for 9 yds to the WKU 45

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.16

Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the WKU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the WKU 36

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.63

Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the WKU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.67

Aaron Bedgood run for 9 yds to the WKU 19

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA -0.33

Aaron Bedgood run for 10 yds to the WKU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Victor Venn for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 5 yds to the WKU 30

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Austin Reed run for 6 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the WKU 36

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.43

Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 15 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Young,Elijah rush right for 7 yards gain to the LIB42 (Reese,Quinton) PENALTY WKU Holding (Murphy,Vincent) 10 yards from LIB49 to WKU41. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Austin Reed pass complete to L.T. Sanders for 4 yds to the WKU 45

2nd & 16Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Austin Reed pass complete to L.T. Sanders for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Austin Reed pass incomplete to K.D. Hutchinson

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Tom Ellard punt for 50 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Billy Lucas run for 8 yds to the LIB 28

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.07

Billy Lucas run for 4 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the LIB 35

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.06

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.79

Billy Lucas run for 13 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Aaron Bedgood run for 8 yds to the WKU 29

2nd & 2Rush+12 ydsPPA -0.12

Aaron Bedgood run for 12 yds to the WKU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.89

Kaidon Salter run for 13 yds to the WKU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the WKU 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 4 yds to the WKU 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.63

Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 13 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.23

Austin Reed sacked by Kendy Charles for a loss of 7 yards to the WKU 35

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Blue Smith

3rd & 17Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.51

Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 18 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jimmy Holiday

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Malachi Corley run for 4 yds to the LIB 43

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+43 ydsPPA +4.83

Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 43 yds for a TD Liberty Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jerome Jolly Jr.) declined (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Western Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Sebastian Benjamin) to the LIB 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Aaron Bedgood run for 4 yds to the LIB 45

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.21

Billy Lucas run for 8 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+41 ydsPPA +1.56

Kaidon Salter run for 34 yds to the WKU 13 for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kendrick Simpkins) to the WKU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Billy Lucas run for no gain to the WKU 6

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Aaron Bedgood run for 6 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

PENALTY LIB UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Salter,Kaidon) 15 yards from LIB35 to LIB20. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Max Morgan kickoff for 62 yds , Elijah Young return for 19 yds to the WKU 37

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+63 ydsPPA +5.05

Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 63 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 27

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the LIB 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.54

Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 17 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the WKU 43

2nd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.19

Quinton Cooley run for 11 yds to the WKU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the WKU 28

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Billy Lucas run for 1 yd to the WKU 27

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to CJ Daniels

4th & 5Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +4.25

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 27 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Max Morgan kickoff for 62 yds , Elijah Young return for 19 yds to the WKU 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.61

Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 19 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete deep left to Helms,River PENALTY LIB Pass Interference (Bishop,Brandon) 15 yards from WKU41 to LIB44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +0.82

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 26 yds to the LIB 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short right to Corley,Malachi PENALTY WKU Holding (Leslie,Quantavious) 10 yards from LIB18 to LIB28. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Blue Smith

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Markese Stepp

3rd & 20Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 7 yds to the LIB 21

4th & 13Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +4.60

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 21 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

James Jointer Jr. run for 2 yds to the WKU 36

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Malik Caper run for 9 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.61

J. Bennett takes a knee

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.91

J. Bennett takes a knee

Situational Analysis

Liberty

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
65%
31 plays
2nd
43%
7 plays
43%
7 plays
86%
7 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Western Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
44%
25 plays
0%
4 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
75%
4 plays
36%
11 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play