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← Back to GamesOct 21, 2023Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Nebraska by 9

Home Win Probability

Nebraska 68%

Market (Bovada)

Nebraska -10.5

Edge: Northwestern +10.5 (1.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 21, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NorthwesternNorthwestern
33039
NebraskaNebraska
370717

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40143-33-610-617-9
NebraskaNorthwestern

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBTO10ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT33ydPUNT35ydTO2-3ydFG5-14ydFG935ydPUNT416ydPUNT727ydFG1073ydTD1077ydTO418ydPUNT36ydPUNT610ydMISS829ydPUNT30ydPUNT519ydPUNT429ydPUNT3-4ydTD144ydFG668ydPUNT521ydPUNT612ydPUNT423ydDOWNS61ydEND2-8yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northwestern and Nebraska
StatisticNorthwesternNebraska
Passing12-238-17
Pass Yards17685
Rush Yards81163
Total Yards257248
Turnovers12
3rd Down3-154-12
Penalties8-753-30
Possession30:5229:08

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northwestern
passing
Brendan Sullivan
12/23, 176 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Anthony Tyus III
6 CAR, 63 YDS
receiving
Bryce Kirtz
3 REC, 96 YDS
defense
Bryce Gallagher
1 TFL, 1 PD
Nebraska
passing
Heinrich Haarberg
8/17, 85 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Emmett Johnson
12 CAR, 73 YDS
receiving
Malachi Coleman
1 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.92

Heinrich Haarberg pass intercepted

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Brendan Sullivan run for 2 yds to the NEB 46 Brendan Sullivan fumbled, recovered by NU Brendan Sullivan

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Bryce Kirtz

3rd & 12Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.19

Brendan Sullivan sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the NU 49

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Heinrich Haarberg run for 1 yd to the NEB 2

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds to the NEB 4

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Thomas Fidone II

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NEB 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to A.J. Henning for 3 yds to the NEB 44

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to A.J. Henning

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Brendan Sullivan run for 2 yds to the NEB 42

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the NEB 13

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 3 yds Billy Kemp IV fumbled, recovered by NEB Thomas Fidone II

2nd & 13Interception0 ydsPPA +0.23

Heinrich Haarberg pass intercepted

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Northwestern Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NEB 21

1st & 18Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Jack Lausch run for no gain to the NEB 21

2nd & 18Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.51

Brendan Sullivan sacked by Nash Hutmacher for a loss of 9 yards to the NEB 30

3rd & 27Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the NEB 27

4th & 24Field Goal Good+45 yds

Jack Olsen 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+36 yds

Luke Akers kickoff for 65 yds , Tommi Hill return for 36 yds to the NEB 36

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Heinrich Haarberg run for 1 yd to the NEB 35

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Heinrich Haarberg run for 3 yds to the NEB 38

3rd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.98

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Alex Bullock for 15 yds to the NU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Emmett Johnson run for 5 yds to the NU 42

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.64

Emmett Johnson run for 10 yds to the NU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Emmett Johnson run for 1 yd to the NU 31

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Anthony Grant run for 2 yds to the NU 29

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Janiran Bonner

4th & 7Field Goal Good+47 yds

Tristan Alvano 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Tristan Alvano kickoff for 57 yds , A.J. Henning return for 16 yds to the NU 24

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Northwestern Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 39

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Brendan Sullivan run for 6 yds to the NU 45

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NW False Start (Carsello,Jackson) 5 yards from NW 45 to NW 40. NO PLAY.

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to A.J. Henning

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Luke Akers punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the NEB 23

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.87

Anthony Grant run for 11 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Anthony Grant run for 2 yds to the NEB 36

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.74

Joshua Fleeks run for no gain to the NEB 36

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NEB False Start (Corcoran,Turner) 5 yards from NEB36 to NEB31. NO PLAY.

3rd & 13Rush+16 ydsPPA +3.00

Heinrich Haarberg run for 16 yds to the NEB 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Heinrich Haarberg run for no gain to the 50 yard line

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

Heinrich Haarberg run for no gain to the 50 yard line

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the NU 10

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Anthony Tyus III run for 5 yds to the NU 15

3rd & 3Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Anthony Tyus III run for 15 yds to the NU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+39 ydsPPA +2.85

Anthony Tyus III run for 39 yds to the NEB 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Brendan Sullivan run for 6 yds to the NEB 25

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the NEB 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NEB 18

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the NEB 20

3rd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Brendan Sullivan run for 6 yds to the NEB 14

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NW False Start (Halkyard,William) 5 yards from NEB14 to NEB19. NO PLAY.

4th & 9Field Goal Good+37 yds

Jack Olsen 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Luke Akers kickoff for 61 yds , Tommi Hill return for 19 yds to the NEB 23

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.20

Emmett Johnson run for 9 yds to the NEB 32

2nd & 1Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.17

Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 35 for a 1ST down Northwestern Penalty, Personal Foul (Anto Saka) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 5 yds to the NU 45

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.55

Emmett Johnson run for 5 yds to the NU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Nate Boerkircher for 7 yds to the NU 33

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds to the NU 31

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.40

Heinrich Haarberg run for 2 yds to the NU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.36

Heinrich Haarberg run for 20 yds to the NU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Emmett Johnson run for 6 yds to the NU 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Heinrich Haarberg run for 3 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Joseph Himon II run for 9 yds to the NU 34

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Joseph Himon II run for 2 yds to the NU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 7 yds to the NU 43

2nd & 3Interception0 ydsPPA -2.56

Brendan Sullivan pass intercepted

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Johnson for 5 yds to the NU 30

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NW False Start (Priebe,Josh) 5 yards from NW 30 to NW 25. NO PLAY.

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Cam Johnson

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Porter for 6 yds to the NU 31

4th & 4Punt+1 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 51 yds , Alex Bullock returns for 1 yd to the NEB 19

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Joshua Fleeks run for 6 yds to the NEB 13 Joshua Fleeks fumbled, recovered by NEB Joshua Fleeks

2nd & 16Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.25

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 10 yds to the NEB 23

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.41

Heinrich Haarberg run for 8 yds to the NEB 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Heinrich Haarberg run for 1 yd to the NEB 32

2nd & 9Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Heinrich Haarberg run for 3 yds to the NEB 29 Heinrich Haarberg fumbled, recovered by NEB Heinrich Haarberg

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Jaidyn Doss

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 36 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 35

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the NU 41

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.45

Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the NU 44

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.54

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to A.J. Henning for 32 yds to the NEB 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Lausch,Jack rush left for 0 yards to the NEB22 (Hutmacher,Nash; Butler,Jimari) PENALTY NW Personal Foul (Gordon,Thomas) 15 yards from NEB22 to NEB37. NO PLAY.

1st & 25Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Jack Lausch run for 3 yds to the NEB 34

3rd & 24Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Anthony Tyus III

2nd & 22Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.33

Jack Lausch sacked by Luke Reimer for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 36

4th & 24Field Goal Missed+54 yds

Jack Olsen 54 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Alex Bullock

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Alex Bullock

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Malachi Coleman

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 29 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Joseph Himon II run for 3 yds to the NU 32

2nd & 13Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.76

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 17 yds to the NU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Bryce Kirtz

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Bryce Kirtz

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Brendan Sullivan run for 5 yds to the NEB 46

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NEB 5

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.14

Emmett Johnson run for 24 yds to the NEB 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the NEB 30

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Jaidyn Doss for 4 yds to the NEB 34

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Heinrich Haarberg run for no gain to the NEB 34

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 55 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the NU 10 A.J. Henning fumbled, recovered by NU A.J. Henning

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Joseph Himon II run for 4 yds to the NU 14

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Joseph Himon II run for 3 yds to the NU 17

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NW False Start (Tiernan,Caleb) 5 yards from NW 17 to NW 12. NO PLAY.

3rd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.14

Brendan Sullivan sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the NU 6

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +3.41

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Malachi Coleman for 44 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Tristan Alvano kickoff for 64 yds , A.J. Henning return for 24 yds to the NU 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Bryce Kirtz

2nd & 10Pass Reception+66 ydsPPA +4.36

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 66 yds to the NEB 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the NEB 5

2nd & 5Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brendan Sullivan sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 7

3rd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.33

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Marshall Lang for no gain to the NEB 7

4th & 7Field Goal Good+25 yds

Jack Olsen 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Heinrich Haarberg run for 5 yds to the NEB 30

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.23

Joshua Fleeks run for 10 yds to the NEB 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the NEB 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 3 yds to the NEB 46

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Thomas Fidone II

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 42 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to A.J. Henning for 5 yds to the NU 17

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

A.J. Henning run for 4 yds to the NU 13

3rd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Johnson for 14 yds to the NU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 26

2nd & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Johnson for 8 yds to the NU 34

3rd & 3Penalty-15 yds

Shotgun Himon II,Joseph rush right for 1 yard gain to the NW 35 (Brown,Omar; Robinson,Ty) PENALTY NW Personal Foul (Gordon,Thomas) 15 yards from NW 34 to NW 19. NO PLAY.

3rd & 18Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.06

Brendan Sullivan sacked by James Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the NU 14

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 52 yds

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.39

Heinrich Haarberg run for 16 yds to the NEB 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 43

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 46

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Heinrich Haarberg run for 1 yd to the NEB 47

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 40 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 13

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.49

Brendan Sullivan run for 10 yds to the NU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.06

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 13 yds to the NU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.78

Brendan Sullivan sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the NU 30

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to A.J. Henning

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Cam Johnson

4th & 16Sack-16 ydsPPA +0.32

Brendan Sullivan sacked for a loss of 16 yards to the NU 14

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -0.78

Kneel down by Nebraska at NW 20 for loss of 6 yards.

2nd & 16Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.96

Kneel down by Nebraska at NW 22 for loss of 2 yards.

Situational Analysis

Northwestern

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
45%
22 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
43%
7 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
50%
8 plays
0%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Nebraska

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
48%
25 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
100%
3 plays
0%
9 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
25%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th