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← Back to GamesOct 21, 2023Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan by 26.8

Home Win Probability

Michigan State 4%

Market (Bovada)

Michigan State +25.5

Edge: Michigan -25.5 (1.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 21, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MichiganMichigan
141414749
Michigan StateMichigan State
00000

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842560-70-140-210-280-350-420-49
Michigan StateMichigan

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSTD1284ydDOWNS726ydTD551ydPUNT3-5ydTD1166ydPUNT36ydPUNT39ydPUNT33ydTD748ydPUNT56ydUncategorized1076ydTD933ydPUNT36ydTD365ydPUNT39ydPUNT37ydPUNT725ydPUNT726ydDOWNS1358ydPUNT39ydTO10ydTD533ydEND10yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Michigan and Michigan State
StatisticMichiganMichigan State
Passing28-3516-29
Pass Yards357133
Rush Yards12049
Total Yards477182
Turnovers02
3rd Down7-116-16
Penalties7-7511-102
Possession34:3125:29

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Michigan
passing
J.J. McCarthy
21/27, 287 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Blake Corum
15 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
A.J. Barner
8 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Michigan State
passing
Katin Houser
12/22, 101 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Nathan Carter
17 CAR, 36 YDS
receiving
Maliq Carr
2 REC, 32 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 7 yds to the MICH 23

2nd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.69

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 10 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MICH 34

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

Michigan Penalty, False Start (Blake Corum) to the MICH 29

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.32

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.70

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 11 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MSU 35

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MSU 33

3rd & 4Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.37

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 25 yds to the MSU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MSU 5

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MSU 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 27

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.60

Nathan Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 25

3rd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.57

Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for 17 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 2 yds to the MSU 44

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

HOUSER, Katin pass short to the right complete for 3 yards to BERGER, Jalen caught at the MSU47 and advanced to the MSU47 (COLSON, Junior). PENALTY MSU Holding on CARR, Maliq enforced 10 yards from the MSU44 to the MSU34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 18Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MSU 37

3rd & 15Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.02

Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 13 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.01

Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MICH 49

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.91

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 15 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.50

Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 40

2nd & 14Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.81

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 1 yd to the MSU 39

3rd & 13Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.63

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 14 yds to the MSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 25 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Katin Houser pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 10Penalty-5 yds

ECKLEY, Ryan punt 54 yards to the UM21, fair catch by MORRIS, Tyler, clock 01:04. PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MSU25 to the MSU20. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 36

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.93

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 15 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MSU 44

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.52

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.19

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 11 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.67

Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the MSU 19

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.45

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MSU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.00

J.J. McCarthy sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 8 yards to the MSU 22

2nd & 18Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +3.55

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Nathan Carter run for 6 yds to the MSU 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MICH 26

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 30

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59

J.J. McCarthy run for no gain to the MICH 30

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 52 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 21

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Morris at the MSU 48

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.56

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 7 yds to the MSU 41

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MSU 39

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.67

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.94

Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 38

2nd & 11Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.34

J.J. McCarthy run for 16 yds to the MSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the MSU 22

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +3.05

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the MSU 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.79

Katin Houser pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 7 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 2 yds to the MSU 40

3rd & 8Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.83

Katin Houser sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 9 yards to the MSU 31

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.80

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 8 yds to the MICH 28

2nd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.02

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 3 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.94

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 11 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.44

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 20 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MSU 32

2nd & 4Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.33

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 22 yds to the MSU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 6 yds to the MSU 4

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Michigan Penalty, False Start (Donovan Edwards) to the MSU 9

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the MSU 30

2nd & 5Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.09

Katin Houser run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.02

Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 11 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 8 yds to the MSU 45

2nd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.54

Nathan Carter run for 10 yds to the MICH 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Illegal Snap on SAMAC, Nick enforced (Nick Samac) to the 50 yard line

1st & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Nathan Carter run for no gain to the 50 yard line

2nd & 15Penalty-5 yds

HOUSER, Katin pass short to the left complete for 5 yards to FOSTER JR., Montorie caught at the UM47 and advanced to the UM45 (PAIGE, Makari). PENALTY MSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the UM50 to the MSU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Nathan Carter run for 6 yds to the MICH 49

3rd & 14Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Katin Houser pass complete to Harold Joiner III for 7 yds to the MICH 42

4th & 7Interception Return Touchdown+72 ydsPPA -8.11

Mike Sainristil 72 Yd Interception Return (James Turner Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the MSU 17

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 7 yds to the MSU 24

3rd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.60

Nathan Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 21

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cornelius Johnson at the MICH 35

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on HARMON, Derrick enforced (Derrick Harmon) to the MSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Dillon Tatum) to the MSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Derrick Harmon) to the MSU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 11 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for 8 yds to the MSU 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 52 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Benjamin Hall run for no gain to the MICH 14

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Jack Tuttle pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 7 yds to the MICH 21

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Jack Tuttle pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 31

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.95

Alante Brown run for 10 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the MSU 45

2nd & 6Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.88

Katin Houser sacked by Derrick Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 40

3rd & 11Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.57

Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 21 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.22

Katin Houser pass complete to Antonio Gates Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 41

2nd & 12Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.63

Nathan Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 44

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 44 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the MICH 13

2nd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.33

Jack Tuttle pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 18 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Benjamin Hall run for 4 yds to the MICH 35

2nd & 6Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.51

Jack Tuttle pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 24 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

TUTTLE, Jack pass to the left complete for 0 yards to MORGAN, Semaj caught at the MSU45 and advanced to the MSU41 (GROSE, Angelo;YOUNG, Zion). PENALTY UM Tripping on EL-HADI, Giovanni enforced 15 yards from the MSU41 to the UM44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Penalty-10 yds

FRANKLIN, Leon rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the UM48 (SPENCER, Malik). PENALTY UM Holding on BEETHAM, Josh enforced 10 yards from the UM44 to the UM34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 35Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.18

Jack Tuttle pass complete to Marlin Klein for 8 yds to the MICH 42

2nd & 27Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Jack Tuttle pass complete to Leon Franklin for 6 yds to the MICH 48

3rd & 21Rush-12 ydsPPA -0.49

Jack Tuttle run for 3 yds to the MSU 49 Michigan Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Personal Foul on DUNLAP, Tavierre enforced (-15 Yards) to the MICH 36

4th & 33Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSU 17

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 18

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

3rd & 14Penalty+15 yds

Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (DJ Waller Jr.) to the MSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 6 yds to the MICH 47

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.79

Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

Sam Leavitt run for no gain to the MICH 39

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MICH 36

3rd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.52

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Antonio Gates Jr. for 7 yds to the MICH 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.81

Nathan Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 31

2nd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 5 yds to the MICH 26

4th & 15Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA -0.97

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 14 yds to the MICH 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Benjamin Hall run for 2 yds to the MICH 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.49

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Semaj Morgan for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 19

3rd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.29

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 10 yds to the MICH 29

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 26

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.99

Sam Leavitt pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Alex Orji run for 5 yds to the MSU 28

2nd & 5Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.29

Alex Orji run for 16 yds to the MSU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.49

Alex Orji run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 15

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the MSU 12

3rd & 10Penalty0 yds

HALL, Benjamin rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the MSU11 (MAJEED, Khalil;ALEXANDER, Aaron). PENALTY MSU Unnecessary Roughness on HANSEN, Maverick enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the MSU12 to the MSU6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Alex Orji run for 6 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Harold Joiner III run for no gain to the MSU 25

Situational Analysis

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
45%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
63%
8 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
100%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
4th

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
26%
19 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
25%
4 plays
38%
8 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
1 play