Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 21, 2023Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Arkansas by 4.1

Home Win Probability

Arkansas 59%

Market (Bovada)

Arkansas -7

Edge: Mississippi State +7 (3.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 21, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
07007
ArkansasArkansas
30003

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q407143-03-7
ArkansasMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKTO21ydFG629ydPUNT417ydPUNT34ydPUNT536ydPUNT622ydTD969ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT35ydPUNT515ydPUNT630ydEND55ydTO720ydPUNT31ydPUNT1051ydPUNT725ydTO919ydPUNT34ydPUNT3-9ydPUNT3-11ydDOWNS43ydMISS49ydDOWNS832yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Arkansas
StatisticMississippi StateArkansas
Passing8-1219-31
Pass Yards8597
Rush Yards120103
Total Yards205200
Turnovers12
3rd Down1-105-17
Penalties8-495-60
Possession28:3531:25

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Mike Wright
8/12, 85 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Mike Wright
11 CAR, 60 YDS
receiving
Justin Robinson
2 REC, 40 YDS
defense
Arkansas
passing
KJ Jefferson
19/31, 97 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Rashod Dubinion
14 CAR, 47 YDS
receiving
Andrew Armstrong
4 REC, 35 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Lideatrick Griffin run for 1 yd to the MSST 26

2nd & 9Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.33

Mike Wright pass intercepted Alfahiym Walcott return for no gain to the MSST 35

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 4 yds to the MSST 31

2nd & 6Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.51

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 19 yds to the MSST 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the MSST 10

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the MSST 6

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Ty Washington

4th & 4Field Goal Good+24 yds

Cam Little 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 11 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.60

Zavion Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 32

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Mike Wright pass incomplete to Antonio Harmon

3rd & 14Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.43

Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the MSST 42

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 4 yds to the ARK 29

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the ARK 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Andrew Armstrong

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Max Fletcher punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 10

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MSST 16

2nd & 4Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.02

Mike Wright run for 26 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the MSST 47

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the ARK 49

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.17

Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the ARK 49

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MSST 46

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 2 yds to the ARK 22

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the ARK 29

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.24

KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.49

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for a loss of 3 yards to the ARK 33

2nd & 13Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

AJ Green run for 2 yds to the ARK 35

3rd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.23

KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the ARK 42

4th & 4Punt+27 yds

Max Fletcher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 16 Arkansas Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the MSST 31

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 30

2nd & 11Rush+31 ydsPPA +3.50

Mike Wright run for 16 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST down Arkansas Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ARK 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the ARK 34

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.35

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the ARK 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 8 yds to the ARK 17

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.32

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the ARK 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.60

Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 12 yds to the ARK 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Mike Wright pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.44

KJ Jefferson sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 10 yards to the ARK 18

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Max Fletcher punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 34

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Lideatrick Griffin run for 5 yds to the MSST 39

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the MSST 39

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

Mike Wright run for no gain to the MSST 39

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 30

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the ARK 35

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.12

Rashod Dubinion run for 8 yds to the ARK 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ARK 33

1st & 20Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 6 yds to the ARK 39

2nd & 14Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.30

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 11 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 3Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -1.73

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 45

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Max Fletcher punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 16

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Seth Davis run for 9 yds to the MSST 25

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.07

Seth Davis run for 7 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -1.19

Seth Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 30 Seth Davis fumbled, forced by Cameron Ball, recovered by MSST Seth Davis

2nd & 12Penalty+15 yds

Arkansas Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Lorando Johnson) to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the MSST 30

1st & 25Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the MSST 32

2nd & 23Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.94

Mike Wright run for 14 yds to the MSST 46

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Mike Wright pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 16

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the ARK 22

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the ARK 22

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.23

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 8 yds to the ARK 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-11 ydsPPA -1.59

KJ Jefferson sacked by Corey Ellington for a loss of 11 yards to the ARK 19 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by ARK Rashod Dubinion , return for 0 yards

2nd & 21Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.05

Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the ARK 21

0th & 21End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Nick Barr-Mira kickoff for 63 yds , Isaiah Sategna return for 24 yds to the ARK 26

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.07

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 22

2nd & 14Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.38

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 9 yds to the ARK 31

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.65

Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds to the ARK 43

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.98

Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the ARK 44

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

AJ Green run for 2 yds to the ARK 46

4th & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -0.82

KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the ARK 47 KJ Jefferson fumbled, forced by Shawn Preston Jr., recovered by MSST DeShawn Page

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the ARK 46

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Mike Wright pass incomplete to Justin Robinson

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the ARK 41

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ARK 46

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 11

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.62

KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the ARK 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Rashod Dubinion run for 7 yds to the ARK 31

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.51

KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 4 yds to the ARK 41

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.12

AJ Green run for 6 yds to the ARK 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.18

KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the MSST 44

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

AJ Green run for 3 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the MSST 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.53

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 2 yds to the MSST 36

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the MSST 33

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

Arkansas Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MSST 38

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Max Fletcher punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 3

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.26

Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the MSST 3

2nd & 10Penalty-1 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-1 Yards) to the MSST 2

2nd & 11Penalty-1 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the MSST 1

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the MSST 4

3rd & 9Penalty-2 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-2 Yards) to the MSST 2

3rd & 11Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +1.82

Mike Wright pass complete to Justin Robinson for 30 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MSST 33

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MSST 37

3rd & 5Rush-10 ydsPPA -0.93

Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the MSST 42 Mississippi State Penalty, Illegal Block (Justin Robinson) to the MSST 27

3rd & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.09

Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the MSST 28

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.34

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 3 yds to the ARK 32

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the ARK 38

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.06

Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the ARK 40

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.48

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 2 yds to the ARK 42

3rd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.60

KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Dominique Johnson run for 3 yds to the MSST 46

2nd & 7Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.27

KJ Jefferson sacked by Decamerion Richardson for a loss of 6 yards to the ARK 48

3rd & 13Pass Interception Return+3 ydsPPA -0.60

KJ Jefferson pass intercepted Shawn Preston Jr. return for 3 yds to the MSST 31

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MSST 34

2nd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.08

Mike Wright sacked by Nico Davillier for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 30

3rd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.51

Mike Wright pass complete to Justin Robinson for 10 yds to the MSST 40

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (DeShawn Page) to the MSST 35

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARK 24

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the ARK 24

2nd & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.54

KJ Jefferson sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 9 yards to the ARK 15

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jaedon Wilson

4th & 19Punt+31 yds

Max Fletcher punt for 62 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 31 yds to the ARK 46

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the ARK 45

2nd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.50

Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 47

3rd & 11Rush-10 ydsPPA -1.41

Mike Wright run for a loss of 10 yards to the MSST 43

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 40 yds, downed at the ARK 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.20

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 3 yds to the ARK 20

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Dominique Johnson run for no gain to the ARK 20

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jaedon Wilson

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.28

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the ARK 17

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the ARK 13

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the ARK 11

4th & 1Field Goal Missed+29 yds

Kyle Ferrie 29 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 7 yds to the ARK 27

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Andrew Armstrong

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaa

4th & 3Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.91

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 19 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Andrew Armstrong

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for 6 yds to the MSST 48

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Andrew Armstrong

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaa

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
44%
18 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
4th

Arkansas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
30%
23 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
30%
10 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
100%
1 play