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← Back to GamesOct 7, 2023Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ole Miss by 13.2

Home Win Probability

Ole Miss 78%

Market (Bovada)

Ole Miss -13.5

Edge: Arkansas +13.5 (0.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 7, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
ArkansasArkansas
706720
Ole MissOle Miss
10701027

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-73-710-717-1017-1324-2027-20
Ole MissArkansas

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OMARKOMARKOMARKOMARKOMARKOMARKOMARKOMARKOMARKOMARKOMARKOMPUNT34ydTD1580ydFG1066ydTO3-1ydTD43ydPUNT837ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT32ydPUNT729ydPUNT39ydTD550ydPUNT3-1ydMISS844ydFG1037ydDOWNS513ydFG1131ydPUNT40ydTD672ydTD1275ydPUNT3-1ydFG863ydTO510ydEND412yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Arkansas and Ole Miss
StatisticArkansasOle Miss
Passing25-3916-25
Pass Yards250153
Rush Yards36196
Total Yards286349
Turnovers20
3rd Down7-164-14
Penalties10-705-44
Possession32:3227:28

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Arkansas
passing
KJ Jefferson
25/39, 250 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Raheim Sanders
8 CAR, 15 YDS
receiving
Ty Washington
7 REC, 90 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Ole Miss
passing
Jaxson Dart
16/25, 153 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Ulysses Bentley IV
13 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jordan Watkins
7 REC, 86 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MISS 26

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the MISS 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 51 yds, downed at the ARK 20

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -0.70

KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 18 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by ARK Raheim Sanders

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.18

Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the ARK 18

3rd & 12Penalty+14 yds

JEFFERSON, KJ pass to the left incomplete intended for BRODEN, Tyrone thrown to the ARK33; QB hurried by HARRIS, Zxavian. PENALTY OLE Pass Interference on PRINCE, Deantre enforced 14 yards to the ARK32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 6 yds to the ARK 38

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.94

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 7 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.80

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 10 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the MISS 43

2nd & 8Sack-12 ydsPPA -2.93

KJ Jefferson sacked by Isaac Ukwu and Jamond Gordon for a loss of 12 yards to the ARK 45

3rd & 20Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.69

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 16 yds to the MISS 39

4th & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.45

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 9 yds to the MISS 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Arkansas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MISS 35

1st & 15Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.80

Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 40

2nd & 20Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.17

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 34 yds to the MISS 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 7

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 4 yds to the MISS 3

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 3 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the MISS 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete

3rd & 9Penalty+10 yds

DART, Jaxson pass to the right incomplete intended for HARRIS, Tre broken up by JOHNSON, Lorando at the OLE34. PENALTY ARK Holding on CLARK, Hudson enforced 10 yards from the OLE26 to the OLE36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.53

Jaxson Dart run for 17 yds to the ARK 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +0.98

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 26 yds to the ARK 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the ARK 17

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the ARK 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the ARK 8

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.35

Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 9

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+27 yds

Caden Davis 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.39

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 24

3rd & 11Interception0 ydsPPA +0.17

KJ Jefferson pass intercepted

1st & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the ARK 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the ARK 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the ARK 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Quinshon Judkins 1 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 28

2nd & 7Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.84

KJ Jefferson sacked by JJ Pegues for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 23

3rd & 12Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.36

KJ Jefferson run for 16 yds to the ARK 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the ARK 43

2nd & 6Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.01

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 21 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the MISS 35

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.61

KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 38

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Max Fletcher punt for 38 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 4 yds to the MISS 24

2nd & 6Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.73

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 20

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MISS 15

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 44 yds , Isaiah Sategna returns for no gain to the ARK 31

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Arkansas Penalty, Illegal Snap on KUTAS, Patrick enforced (Patrick Kutas) to the ARK 26

1st & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 7 yds to the ARK 33

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Max Fletcher punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the MISS 20

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MISS 24

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the MISS 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

DART, Jaxson pass deep to the right complete for 41 yards to HARRIS, Tre caught at the ARK32 and advanced to the ARK27, out of bounds. PENALTY OLE Holding on PETTUS, Micah enforced 10 yards from the OLE32 to the OLE22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.19

Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the MISS 29

2nd & 13Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.81

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 19 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -2.00

Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 44

2nd & 14Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.09

Jaxson Dart sacked by Trajan Jeffcoat for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 39

3rd & 19Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.42

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 10 yds to the MISS 49

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 8

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the ARK 14

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the ARK 15

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the ARK 17

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Max Fletcher punt for 33 yds, downed at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.94

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 17 yds to the ARK 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.26

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 11 yds to the ARK 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.60

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 16 yds to the ARK 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.37

KJ Jefferson sacked by Suntarine Perkins and Akelo Stone for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 24

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Max Fletcher punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the MISS 34

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.28

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 34

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

MASIN, Fraser punt 46 yards to the ARK20, fair catch by SATEGNA, Isaiah, clock 00:34. PENALTY Before the snap, ARK Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the OLE34 to the OLE39 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.01

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.83

Jaxson Dart run for 14 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 5 yds to the ARK 31

3rd & 5Field Goal Missed+49 yds

Caden Davis 49 yd FG MISSED

0th & 5End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 4 yds to the ARK 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.66

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 17 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the ARK 48

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Beaux Limmer) to the ARK 43

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +3.45

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 16 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the MISS 40

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 6 yds to the MISS 34

3rd & 3Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.90

KJ Jefferson sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 38

4th & 7Field Goal Good+56 yds

Cam Little 56 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 19 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 44

3rd & 13Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 8 yds to the MISS 49

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Ole Miss Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Jaxson Dart) to the MISS 41

4th & 5Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.63

Jaxson Dart sacked by Malik Chavis for a loss of 11 yards to the MISS 38

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the MISS 33

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 4 yds to the MISS 29

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.32

KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the MISS 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Ty Washington) to the MISS 33

2nd & 15Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.44

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 16 yds to the MISS 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+1 ydsPPA -0.26

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 1 yd Rashod Dubinion fumbled, recovered by ARK

2nd & 11Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.80

Rashod Dubinion run for 11 yds to the MISS 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the MISS 4

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Brady Latham) to the MISS 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MISS 7

4th & 7Field Goal Good+26 yds

Cam Little 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the MISS 31

2nd & 4Penalty-10 yds

Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Caden Prieskorn) to the MISS 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for no gain to the MISS 25

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.85

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 20 yds to the ARK 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.15

KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the MISS 43

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.61

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 20 yds to the MISS 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 4 yds to the MISS 17

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.66

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 17 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 2 yds to the MISS 27

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the MISS 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MISS 34

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.75

run for 3 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 39

2nd & 8Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.96

Quinshon Judkins run for 34 yds to the ARK 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.89

Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARK 30

2nd & 13Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Dayton Wade run for 5 yds to the ARK 25

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 9 yds to the ARK 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the ARK 10

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the ARK 7

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.52

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 7 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the ARK 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 7 yds to the ARK 32

3rd & 3Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.84

KJ Jefferson sacked by Ashanti Cistrunk and Isaac Ukwu for a loss of 8 yards to the ARK 24

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Max Fletcher punt for 56 yds

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.52

Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 28

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete

3rd & 15Penalty+5 yds

Arkansas Penalty, Offsides (Eric Gregory) to the MISS 33

3rd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Arkansas Penalty, Roughing the Passer on JEFFCOAT, Trajan enforced (Trajan Jeffcoat) to the ARK 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +1.51

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 32 yds to the ARK 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the ARK 3

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the ARK 2

3rd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.44

run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 4

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 yds

Caden Davis 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 7 yds to the ARK 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.22

KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.74

KJ Jefferson pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the ARK 29

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.72

Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the ARK 29

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.66

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the ARK 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

[NHSG] Kneel down by DART, Jaxson at ARK24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Arkansas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
33%
24 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
18%
11 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
50%
6 plays
100%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
100%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Ole Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
48%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
43%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
33%
6 plays
0%
1 play
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play