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← Back to GamesOct 7, 2023Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan by 13.8

Home Win Probability

Minnesota 15%

Market (Bovada)

Minnesota +18.5

Edge: Minnesota +18.5 (4.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 7, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MichiganMichigan
101421752
MinnesotaMinnesota
370010

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842563-1010-2410-52
MinnesotaMichigan

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MINMINMICMINMICMINMICMINMICMINMICMICMINMICMINMICMINMINMICMINMICMINTD275ydPUNT47ydFG1059ydFG1040ydPUNT527ydPUNT4-2ydTD662ydPUNT3-9ydTD467ydTD1175ydEND10ydPUNT35ydPUNT34ydTD978ydPUNT4-12ydTD649ydTD378ydPUNT32ydTD1170ydPUNT515ydPUNT37ydUncategorized619yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Michigan and Minnesota
StatisticMichiganMinnesota
Passing16-235-16
Pass Yards24152
Rush Yards191117
Total Yards432169
Turnovers02
3rd Down5-103-14
Penalties1-104-36
Possession28:4831:12

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Michigan
passing
J.J. McCarthy
14/20, 219 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Blake Corum
9 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Cornelius Johnson
3 REC, 86 YDS
defense
Minnesota
passing
Athan Kaliakmanis
5/15, 52 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Zach Evans
12 CAR, 45 YDS
receiving
Daniel Jackson
2 REC, 34 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Corey Crooms Jr.

2nd & 10Interception Return Touchdown+36 ydsPPA -7.22

Will Johnson 36 Yd Interception Return (James Turner Kick)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Bryce Williams run for 7 yds to the MINN 32

2nd & 3Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.54

Minnesota Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the MINN 27

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the MINN 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel Jackson, broken up by Rayshaun Benny

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.90

Blake Corum run for 10 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 5 yds to the MICH 43

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 47

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Kalel Mullings run for no gain

4th & 1Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.92

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Kalel Mullings for 13 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.57

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 20 yds to the MINN 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 7 yds to the MINN 13

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

J.J. McCarthy run for no gain

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson

4th & 3Field Goal Good+31 yds

James Turner 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel Jackson

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.73

Zach Evans run for 12 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.29

Zach Evans run for 14 yds to the MICH 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Zach Evans run for 8 yds to the MICH 41

2nd & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.10

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford

3rd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.03

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Bryce Williams for 5 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.50

Zach Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the MICH 40

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel Jackson, broken up by Makari Paige

3rd & 14Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Athan Kaliakmanis run for 5 yds to the MICH 35

4th & 9Field Goal Good+54 yds

Dragan Kesich 54 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.10

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 17 yds to the MICH 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman Wilson

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

J.J. McCarthy run for 5 yds to the MINN 48

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -0.58

Minnesota Penalty, Offensive holding (Nathan Boe) to the MINN 6

1st & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Corey Crooms Jr., broken up by Mike Sainristil

2nd & 16Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.04

Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the MINN 8

3rd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.02

Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the MINN 10

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 52 yds , Tyler Morris returns for no gain to the MICH 38

1st & 10Rush+40 ydsPPA +2.31

Blake Corum run for 40 yds to the MINN 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MINN 16

2nd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.41

Roman Wilson run for 10 yds to the MINN 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.15

Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MINN 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Blake Corum run for no gain

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 34

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.60

Zach Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 33

3rd & 12Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.34

Athan Kaliakmanis sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the MINN 26

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.34

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 30

2nd & 13Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.59

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 16 yds to the MICH 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+49 ydsPPA +2.30

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 49 yds to the MINN 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

J.J. McCarthy run for 5 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Zach Evans for 13 yds to the MINN 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Athan Kaliakmanis run for no gain

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Zach Evans run for 7 yds to the MINN 45

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the MINN 47

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.42

Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.31

Zach Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 49

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.79

Bryce Williams run for 8 yds to the MICH 41

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the MICH 40

4th & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.12

Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the MICH 35 for a 1ST down

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+35 ydsPPA +3.66

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 35 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 35

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 5 yds to the MICH 32

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Fredrick Moore

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan Edwards

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Dragan Kesich kickoff for 59 yds , Semaj Morgan return for 21 yds to the MICH 27

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the MINN 29

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Zach Evans, broken up by Braiden McGregor

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Athan Kaliakmanis run for 1 yd to the MINN 30

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 25

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Blake Corum

3rd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.45

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 17 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +1.88

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 34 yds to the MINN 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the MINN 18

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston Loveland, broken up by Craig McDonald

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.54

Kalel Mullings run for 9 yds to the MINN 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MINN 7

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

J.J. McCarthy run for 7 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the MINN 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion-10 ydsPPA -1.53

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Corey Crooms Jr. Minnesota Penalty, Offensive holding (Brevyn Spann-Ford) to the MINN 21

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel Jackson

3rd & 14Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.12

Athan Kaliakmanis sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the MINN 13

4th & 22Punt+7 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 43 yds , Jake Thaw returns for 7 yds to the MINN 49

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 7 yds to the MINN 42

2nd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.25

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 8 yds to the MINN 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MINN 29

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MINN 25

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.24

Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MINN 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 24 yds for a TD Minnesota Penalty, roughing passer (Anthony Smith) to the MINN 0 (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+4 yds

Tommy Doman kickoff for 32 yds , Karter Shaw return for 4 yds to the MINN 22

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the MINN 25

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Zach Evans run for no gain

3rd & 7Interception Return Touchdown+28 ydsPPA -6.99

Keon Sabb 28 Yd Interception Return (James Turner Kick)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the MINN 26

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the MINN 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Brevyn Spann-Ford

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the MICH 34

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Kalel Mullings run for 9 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jack Tuttle pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 5 yds to the MICH 48

2nd & 5Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.57

Kalel Mullings run for 23 yds to the MINN 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.67

Kalel Mullings run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 30

2nd & 11Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.92

Jack Tuttle pass complete to AJ Barner for 17 yds to the MINN 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-10 ydsPPA -1.21

Michigan Penalty, Offensive holding (Max Bredeson) to the MINN 23

1st & 20Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Leon Franklin run for 4 yds to the MINN 19

2nd & 16Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.74

Leon Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 20

3rd & 17Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.81

Jack Tuttle run for 18 yds to the MINN 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Leon Franklin run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the MINN 30

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Sean Tyler run for 6 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the MINN 40

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the MINN 41

3rd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.76

Sean Tyler run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 40

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Tavierre Dunlap run for 7 yds to the MICH 26

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Josh Beetham

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Jayden Denegal run for no gain

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MINN 27

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jordan Nubin run for 5 yds to the MINN 32

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.30

Jordan Nubin run for 5 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jordan Nubin run for 4 yds to the MINN 41

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MINN 43

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.93

Jordan Nubin run for 6 yds to the MINN 43 for a 1ST down

0th & 4End of Regulation0 yds

End of 4th Quarter

Situational Analysis

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
2 plays
63%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
43%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

Minnesota

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
32%
19 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
56%
9 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays