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← Back to GamesSep 30, 2023Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan by 20.3

Home Win Probability

Nebraska 8%

Market (Bovada)

Nebraska +17.5

Edge: Michigan -17.5 (2.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 30, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MichiganMichigan
141471045
NebraskaNebraska
00077

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-140-210-280-350-380-457-45
NebraskaMichigan

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MICNEBMICNEBMICNEBMICNEBMICNEBNEBMICNEBMICNEBMICNEBMICNEBTD1175ydTO21ydTD329ydDOWNS963ydTD988ydPUNT35ydPUNT30ydPUNT624ydTD855ydEND323ydMISS553ydTD1178ydPUNT30ydFG1363ydDOWNS1031ydTD1050ydTD174ydDOWNS718ydEND521yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Michigan and Nebraska
StatisticMichiganNebraska
Passing16-2314-25
Pass Yards187199
Rush Yards249106
Total Yards436305
Turnovers01
3rd Down8-133-10
Penalties0-04-30
Possession38:0121:59

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Michigan
passing
J.J. McCarthy
12/16, 156 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Blake Corum
16 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Roman Wilson
4 REC, 58 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Nebraska
passing
Heinrich Haarberg
14/25, 199 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Josh Fleeks
1 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Billy Kemp
4 REC, 61 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Tyler Morris for 5 yds to the MICH 30

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.13

J.J. McCarthy run for 9 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the MICH 48

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.41

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan Edwards

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.23

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the NEB 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 3 yds to the NEB 45

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the NEB 41

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the NEB 39

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.80

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the NEB 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the NEB 29

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +2.46

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 29 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the NEB 26

2nd & 9Interception0 ydsPPA -0.33

Heinrich Haarberg pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the NEB 25

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the NEB 20

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.76

Kalel Mullings run for 20 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the NEB 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.91

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 14 yds to the NEB 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Heinrich Haarberg run for 2 yds to the NEB 42

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the NEB 45

3rd & 5Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.18

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 34 yds to the MICH 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Billy Kemp IV run for 4 yds to the MICH 17

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NEB False Start (Corcoran,Turner) 5 yards from U-M17 to U-M22. NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Nate Boerkircher for 7 yds to the MICH 15

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Janiran Bonner run for 3 yds to the MICH 12

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.97

Heinrich Haarberg run for no gain to the MICH 12

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 14

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 15

3rd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.58

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 16 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MICH 37

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.13

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 10 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.69

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 20 yds to the NEB 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.69

Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the NEB 21

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.13

J.J. McCarthy run for 21 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Anthony Grant for 1 yd to the NEB 26

2nd & 9Fumble Recovery (Own)+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Heinrich Haarberg run for 7 yds to the NEB 19 Heinrich Haarberg fumbled, recovered by NEB Heinrich Haarberg

3rd & 16Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.20

Heinrich Haarberg run for 11 yds to the NEB 30

4th & 5Punt+11 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 35 , Jake Thaw returns for 11 yds to the MICH 35

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston Loveland

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the MICH 35

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 65 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the NEB 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Heinrich Haarberg for 2 yds to the NEB 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.86

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 12 yds to the NEB 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Janiran Bonner run for 2 yds to the NEB 39

2nd & 8Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.07

Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 37

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 7 yds to the NEB 44

4th & 3Punt+30 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 41 yds , Tyler Morris returns for 30 yds to the MICH 45

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 42

2nd & 13Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.73

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 12 yds to the NEB 46

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.14

Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the NEB 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.37

Blake Corum run for 10 yds to the NEB 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 5 yds to the NEB 25

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the NEB 22

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the NEB 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.57

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 16 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Heinrich Haarberg run for 16 yds to the NEB 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 7 yds to the NEB 48

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.29

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IV

0th & 3End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+56 ydsPPA +3.47

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Marcus Washington for 56 yds to the MICH 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Anthony Grant run for 2 yds to the MICH 17

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Anthony Grant run for 6 yds to the MICH 11 Anthony Grant fumbled, recovered by NEB Ben Scott

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NEB False Start (Grant,Anthony) 5 yards from U-M11 to U-M16. NO PLAY.

3rd & 7Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.59

Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Braiden McGregor for a loss of 6 yards to the MICH 22

4th & 13Field Goal Missed+40 yds

Tristan Alvano 40 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston Loveland

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 22

3rd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.94

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 13 yds to the MICH 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.30

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 19 yds to the NEB 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the NEB 34

2nd & 1Rush+15 ydsPPA -0.16

Blake Corum run for 15 yds to the NEB 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.46

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 8 yds to the NEB 11

2nd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.68

Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the NEB 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the NEB 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Joshua Fleeks

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Marcus Washington

3rd & 10Penalty0 yds

Nebraska Penalty, Illegal Shift (Yards) declined

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Brian Buschini punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyler Morris at the MICH 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Darrius Clemons

3rd & 8Penalty+20 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Tuttle,Jack pass incomplete short right to Barner,AJ PENALTY NEB Offside (Robinson,Ty) NEB UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sherman,MJ) 20 yards from U-M27 to U-M47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.52

Jack Tuttle pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 10 yds to the NEB 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jack Tuttle pass complete to Max Bredeson for 5 yds to the NEB 36

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the NEB 35

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.03

Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the NEB 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the NEB 26

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.27

Jack Tuttle pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 8 yds to the NEB 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the NEB 14

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the NEB 12

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Jack Tuttle run for no gain to the NEB 12

4th & 4Field Goal Good+30 yds

James Turner 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Tommy Doman kickoff for 65 yds , Tommi Hill return for 19 yds to the NEB 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.78

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the NEB 27

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-9 ydsPPA -1.53

Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Derrick Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the NEB 21 Heinrich Haarberg fumbled, recovered by NEB Bryce Benhart , return for 0 yards

2nd & 19Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.05

Emmett Johnson run for 6 yds to the NEB 27

3rd & 13Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.42

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 13 yds to the NEB 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.40

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 17 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Emmett Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Jaylen Lloyd

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Marcus Washington

4th & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.74

Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Leon Franklin run for 6 yds to the NEB 44

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Jayden Denegal run for 8 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Leon Franklin run for 3 yds to the NEB 33

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Jayden Denegal run for 2 yds to the NEB 31

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Leon Franklin run for 4 yds to the NEB 27

4th & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.16

Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the NEB 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Tavierre Dunlap run for 4 yds to the NEB 17

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.15

Tavierre Dunlap run for 7 yds to the NEB 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Tavierre Dunlap run for 2 yds to the NEB 8

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.68

Jayden Denegal pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 8 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Tommy Doman kickoff for 62 yds , Tommi Hill return for 23 yds to the NEB 26

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+74 ydsPPA +6.01

Joshua Fleeks run for 74 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Davis Warren pass incomplete to Semaj Morgan

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Leon Franklin run for 9 yds to the NEB 38

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.59

Leon Franklin run for 1 yd to the NEB 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Leon Franklin run for 3 yds to the NEB 34

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Davis Warren run for 4 yds to the NEB 30

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Tavierre Dunlap run for 1 yd to the NEB 29

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.93

Davis Warren pass incomplete to Marlin Klein

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IV

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Joshua Fleeks for 2 yds to the NEB 31

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Janiran Bonner

4th & 8Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.34

Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Jaylen Lloyd for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IV

Situational Analysis

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
41%
29 plays
2nd
67%
6 plays
67%
9 plays
42%
12 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
71%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
67%
3 plays

Nebraska

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
32%
19 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
30%
10 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays