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← Back to GamesOct 1, 2023Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Alabama by 9.1

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 29%

Market (Bovada)

Mississippi State +14

Edge: Mississippi State +14 (4.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 1, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
AlabamaAlabama
14173640
Mississippi StateMississippi State
0107017

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-1410-1710-2417-3117-3417-3717-40
Mississippi StateAlabama

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ALAMSALAMSALAMSMSALAMSALAMSALAMSMSALAMSALAMSALAMSALAMSALAPUNT42ydTO34ydPUNT32ydPUNT3-4ydTD370ydTD34ydFG1262ydFG646ydTD964ydTD1275ydTO10ydTD331ydEND1-2ydTD1175ydFG1254ydPUNT36ydPUNT38ydDOWNS66ydFG618ydTO46ydFG44ydDOWNS730ydEND422yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Alabama and Mississippi State
StatisticAlabamaMississippi State
Passing10-1315-27
Pass Yards164107
Rush Yards193154
Total Yards357261
Turnovers03
3rd Down5-125-13
Penalties6-403-15
Possession30:1029:50

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Alabama
passing
Jalen Milroe
10/12, 164 YDS
rushing
Jalen Milroe
11 CAR, 69 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Amari Niblack
3 REC, 61 YDS
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
15/27, 107 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Jo'quavious Marks
9 CAR, 68 YDS
receiving
Freddie Roberson
2 REC, 23 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+30 yds

Nick Barr-Mira kickoff for 65 yds , Kendrick Law return for 30 yds to the ALA 30

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.13

Jase McClellan run for 12 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.13

Jalen Milroe sacked by Jett Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 36

2nd & 16Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ALA 40

3rd & 12Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.57

Jalen Milroe sacked by Donterry Russell for a loss of 8 yards to the ALA 32

4th & 20Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 67 yds, downed at the MSST 1

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion Thomas

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.09

Will Rogers run for 1 yd to the MSST 2

3rd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 3 yds to the MSST 5

4th & 6Punt-4 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 42 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 49 Kool-Aid McKinstry fumbled, forced by DeShawn Page, recovered by ALA Kool-Aid McKinstry

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the MSST 47

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

McClellan, Jase rush for 2 yards to the MISSSTATE45, PENALTY ALABAMA false start 5 yards to the ALABAMA48, NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Roydell Williams run for 7 yds to the MSST 45

3rd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.76

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ALA Jalen Milroe

4th & 8Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 49 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 7 yds to the MSST 27

2nd & 3Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.05

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 25

3rd & 5Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.46

Will Rogers sacked by Trezmen Marshall for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 16

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 30

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 33

2nd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.95

Jalen Milroe run for 14 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+53 ydsPPA +4.10

Jalen Milroe 53 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MSST 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan Mosley

3rd & 6Interception Return Touchdown+28 ydsPPA -7.16

Chris Braswell 28 Yd Interception Return (Will Reichard Kick)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 24

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the MSST 24

3rd & 11Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.03

Will Rogers run for 12 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the MSST 39

2nd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.87

Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 13 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the ALA 43

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the ALA 39

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALA 44

3rd & 6Rush+29 ydsPPA +2.37

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 29 yds to the ALA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the ALA 11

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the ALA 9

3rd & 4Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.77

Will Rogers sacked by Trezmen Marshall and Jihaad Campbell for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 13

4th & 8Field Goal Good+31 yds

Kyle Ferrie 31 Yd Field Goal

4th & 8Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Nick Barr-Mira kickoff for 60 yds , Ja'Corey Brooks return for 19 yds to the ALA 24

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.90

Roydell Williams run for 11 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.15

Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for 27 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Roydell Williams run for 8 yds to the MSST 30

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the MSST 29

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.06

Roydell Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 30

4th & 2Field Goal Good+48 yds

Will Reichard 48 Yd Field Goal

4th & 2Kickoff Return (Offense)+34 yds

Will Reichard kickoff for 63 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 34 yds to the MSST 36

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Creed Whittemore

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Lideatrick Griffin run for 2 yds to the MSST 38

3rd & 8Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.41

Will Rogers pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 22 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the ALA 38

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.85

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 10 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.72

Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 13 yds to the ALA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Mike Wright 15 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the ALA 31

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the ALA 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.22

Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 3 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the ALA 41

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.45

Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 44

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALA 39

3rd & 6Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.02

Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 18 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.48

Jase McClellan run for 11 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.53

Jase McClellan run for 8 yds to the MSST 24

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

Milroe, Jalen pass complete to Ouzts, Robbie for 7 yards to the MISSSTATE17, PENALTY ALABAMA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MISSSTATE29, NO PLAY.

2nd & 7Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.55

Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 19 yds to the MSST 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jase McClellan run for no gain to the MSST 10

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.25

Jase McClellan run for 8 yds to the MSST 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Jase McClellan 2 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)

3rd & 2Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Will Reichard kickoff for 56 yds , Zavion Thomas return for 18 yds to the MSST 27

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+2 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Rogers pass intercepted Jihaad Campbell return for 2 yds to the MSST 31

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the MSST 27

2nd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.38

Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 17 yds to the MSST 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Jalen Milroe 10 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Will Reichard kickoff for 57 yds , Zavion Thomas return for 20 yds to the MSST 28

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.01

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 26

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Lideatrick Griffin run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 24

2nd & 11Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.83

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 13 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.36

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 15 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.59

Jeffery Pittman run for 10 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.98

Jeffery Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 39

2nd & 11Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.39

Will Rogers run for 15 yds to the ALA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the ALA 22

2nd & 8Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.23

Jeffery Pittman run for 18 yds to the ALA 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the ALA 3

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the ALA 1

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Jeffery Pittman 1 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Kyle Ferrie Kick)

3rd & 7Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Nick Barr-Mira kickoff for 63 yds , Kendrick Law return for 24 yds to the ALA 26

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the ALA 27

2nd & 9Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.78

Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.19

Jase McClellan run for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 45

2nd & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ALA 49

3rd & 11Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.32

Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 20 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 5 yds to the MSST 26

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the MSST 22

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.20

Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the MSST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Roydell Williams run for 6 yds to the MSST 14

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Roydell Williams run for no gain to the MSST 14

3rd & 4Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.33

Jalen Milroe sacked by DeShawn Page and Jaden Crumedy for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 20

4th & 10Field Goal Good+38 yds

Will Reichard 38 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Seth Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 27

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Seth Davis run for 4 yds to the MSST 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion Thomas

4th & 4Punt+49 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the ALA 30 Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ALA 20

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the ALA 25

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 28

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jalen Hale

4th & 2Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 28

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 31

2nd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.72

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 12 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 36 lat. to Zavion Thomas for 6 yds to the MSST 42

2nd & 11Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 1 yd to the MSST 43

3rd & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.56

Will Rogers sacked by Jah-Marien Latham and Dallas Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 42

4th & 11Sack-8 ydsPPA +0.03

Will Rogers sacked by Justin Eboigbe and Dallas Turner for a loss of 8 yards to the MSST 34

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Milroe, Jalen pass complete to Niblack, Amari for 7 yards to the MISSSTATE27, PENALTY ALABAMA holding 10 yards to the MISSSTATE44, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.57

Jalen Milroe sacked by Nathaniel Watson and Donterry Russell for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 47

2nd & 23Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.53

Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 26 yds to the MSST 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Amari Niblack

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the MSST 17

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 22

3rd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 6 yds to the MSST 16

4th & 5Field Goal Good+34 yds

Will Reichard 34 Yd Field Goal

4th & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+3 yds

Will Reichard kickoff for 50 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 3 yds to the MSST 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 2 yds to the MSST 20

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Will Rogers pass complete to Seth Davis for 4 yds to the MSST 24

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 4Pass Interception Return+11 ydsPPA +0.17

Will Rogers pass intercepted Caleb Downs return for 11 yds to the MSST 34

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jam Miller run for no gain to the MSST 34

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.10

Ty Simpson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 35

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Jalen Hale

4th & 11Penalty+5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MSST 30

4th & 6Field Goal Good+48 yds

Will Reichard 48 Yd Field Goal

4th & 6Kickoff Return (Offense)+35 yds

Conor Talty kickoff for 58 yds , Zavion Thomas return for 35 yds to the MSST 42

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.95

Seth Davis run for 11 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 7 yds to the ALA 40

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Freddie Roberson

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Lee, Keyvone rush for 9 yards to the ALABAMA24, PENALTY MISSSTATE illegal formation 5 yards to the ALABAMA38, NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 10 yds to the ALA 28

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the ALA 28

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.66

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan Mosley

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the ALA 31

2nd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.00

Justice Haynes run for 15 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the ALA 48

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

Situational Analysis

Alabama

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
54%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
17%
6 plays
63%
8 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
4th

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
32%
25 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
44%
9 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
14%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play