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← Back to GamesSep 30, 2023Week 5
FloridaFlorida
14
-Final
33
KentuckyKentucky
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Kentucky by 7.3

Home Win Probability

Kentucky 66%

Market (Bovada)

Kentucky -2.5

Edge: Kentucky -2.5 (4.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 30, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
FloridaFlorida
077014
KentuckyKentucky
1677333

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-010-023-030-730-1433-14
KentuckyFlorida

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20FLOKENFLOKENFLOKENFLOKENFLOKENFLOKENKENFLOKENFLOKENFLOKENFLOKENPUNT4-3ydFG1281ydTO35ydTD215ydPUNT928ydTD490ydPUNT414ydTD780ydPUNT615ydPUNT515ydTD675ydEND10ydTD868ydTD775ydPUNT413ydPUNT34ydPUNT36ydDOWNS934ydFG615ydDOWNS831ydEND651yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Florida and Kentucky
StatisticFloridaKentucky
Passing25-309-19
Pass Yards24469
Rush Yards69329
Total Yards313398
Turnovers10
3rd Down4-131-8
Penalties10-863-25
Possession31:1428:46

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Florida
passing
Graham Mertz
25/30, 244 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Montrell Johnson
10 CAR, 42 YDS
receiving
Ricky Pearsall
3 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Kentucky
passing
Devin Leary
9/19, 69 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Re'Mahn Davis
26 CAR, 280 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Barion Brown
4 REC, 37 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 26

2nd & 9Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.63

Graham Mertz sacked by D'Eryk Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the FLA 20

3rd & 15Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.09

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the FLA 27 Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FLA 17

3rd & 18Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FLA 22

4th & 13Punt+4 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 60 yds , Barion Brown returns for 4 yds to the UK 26 Kentucky Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UK 12

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.46

Ray Davis run for 10 yds to the UK 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.61

Ray Davis run for 19 yds to the UK 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the UK 45

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.06

Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 6 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Tayvion Robinson

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the FLA 44

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.81

Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 9 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +0.92

Ray Davis run for 22 yds to the FLA 13 for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (7 Yards) to the FLA 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

JuTahn McClain run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 7

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ray Davis

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Barion Brown

4th & 7Field Goal Good+24 yds

Alex Raynor 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Caleb Douglas

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the FLA 30

3rd & 5Pass Interception Return+21 ydsPPA -0.26

Graham Mertz pass intercepted Trevin Wallace return for 21 yds to the FLA 15

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the FLA 9

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.38

Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil Jackson

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.28

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 13 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 45

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 6 yds to the UK 49

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.27

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the UK 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.65

Graham Mertz sacked by Deone Walker for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 49

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Andy Jean

3rd & 18Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the UK 47

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 10

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan Dingle

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan Dingle

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Barion Brown

4th & 10Penalty+15 yds

Florida Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UK 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.08

Ray Davis run for 75 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 24

2nd & 11Penalty+10 yds

Mertz, Graham pass incomplete to Boardingham, Arlis, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding 10 yards to the FLORIDA34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the FLA 36

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 5 yds to the FLA 41

3rd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.99

Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 39

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 61 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.24

Ray Davis run for 16 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +2.31

Ray Davis run for 33 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Ramon Jefferson run for 4 yds to the FLA 27

2nd & 6Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.36

Barion Brown run for 14 yds to the FLA 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.50

Ramon Jefferson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 16

2nd & 13Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.58

Ray Davis run for 13 yds to the FLA 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Ray Davis run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.70

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for no gain to the FLA 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 3 yds to the FLA 28

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Florida Penalty, False Start (Arlis Boardingham) to the FLA 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.16

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 14 yds to the FLA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Mertz, Graham pass incomplete to Pearsall, Ricky, PENALTY FLORIDA personal foul (Eguakun, Kingsley) 15 yards to the FLORIDA22, NO PLAY.

1st & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Hayden Hansen

2nd & 25Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.12

Graham Mertz run for 9 yds to the FLA 31

3rd & 16Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.25

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds to the FLA 40

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 60 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

JuTahn McClain run for 2 yds to the UK 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.41

Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 12 yds to the UK 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Barion Brown

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

JuTahn McClain run for 1 yd to the UK 35

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Anthony Brown-Stephens

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the FLA 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.80

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 20 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.14

Trevor Etienne run for 16 yds to the UK 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Trevor Etienne run for 4 yds to the UK 35

2nd & 6Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.29

Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 34 yds to the UK 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.40

Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 3 yards to the UK 4

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 35

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+32 yds

Trey Smack kickoff for 65 yds , Barion Brown return for 32 yds to the UK 32

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the UK 35

2nd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.71

Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 11 yds to the UK 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+31 ydsPPA +1.52

Ray Davis run for 31 yds to the FLA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.13

Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 10 yds to the FLA 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the FLA 10

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the FLA 6

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion+4 ydsPPA +1.45

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Barion Brown for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jason Marshall Jr.) to the FLA 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Ray Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Graham Mertz pass complete to Andy Jean for 11 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.31

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Graham Mertz run for 6 yds to the UK 44

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.39

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 45

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the UK 43

4th & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.61

Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 10 yds to the UK 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.90

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 33 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 12 yds to the UK 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the UK 39

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Kentucky Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UK 34

2nd & 13Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the UK 38

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Dane Key

4th & 9Punt+5 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 47 yds , Trevor Etienne returns for 5 yds to the FLA 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Graham Mertz pass complete to Andy Jean for 6 yds to the FLA 26

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 28

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 29

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

Florida Penalty, False Start (Micah Mazzccua) to the FLA 24

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 25

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the UK 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 2 yds to the UK 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Josh Kattus

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 56 yds, downed at the FLA 13

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.45

Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 12

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.47

Graham Mertz pass complete to Andy Jean for 10 yds to the FLA 22

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.68

Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the FLA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Graham Mertz pass complete to Andy Jean for 6 yds to the FLA 32

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.71

Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-13 ydsPPA -2.29

Graham Mertz sacked by J.J. Weaver for a loss of 13 yards to the FLA 25

2nd & 23Fumble Recovery (Own)+14 ydsPPA +0.62

Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 14 yds Trevor Etienne fumbled, recovered by FLA

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the FLA 44

4th & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 3 yds to the FLA 47

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the FLA 42

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Ray Davis run for 9 yds to the FLA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the FLA 31

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the FLA 30

3rd & 7Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.38

Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 32

4th & 9Field Goal Good+50 yds

Alex Raynor 50 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Florida Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the FLA 20

1st & 15Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the FLA 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 9 yds to the FLA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 36

2nd & 11Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.45

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 4 yds to the UK 46

2nd & 6Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.14

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for no gain to the UK 46

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Florida Penalty, False Start (Austin Barber) to the FLA 49

3rd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.87

Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 9 yds to the UK 42

4th & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.71

Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 44

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.23

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (T.J. Searcy) to the FLA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the FLA 37

2nd & 8Rush+28 ydsPPA +1.15

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 28 yds to the FLA 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd to the FLA 8

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.33

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 9

3rd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the FLA 5

Situational Analysis

Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
38%
21 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
50%
6 plays
57%
7 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
67%
6 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
44%
27 plays
2nd
80%
5 plays
40%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
0%
6 plays
4th