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← Back to GamesSep 23, 2023Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Kentucky by 5.4

Home Win Probability

Vanderbilt 33%

Market (Bovada)

Vanderbilt +13

Edge: Vanderbilt +13 (7.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 23, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
KentuckyKentucky
21371445
VanderbiltVanderbilt
01031528

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-140-210-2410-2413-2413-3113-3821-3828-45
VanderbiltKentucky

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20VANKENVANVANKENVANKENVANKENVANKENVANKENVANKENKENVANKENVANKENVANKENVANKENVANKENVANVANKENPUNT411ydTD782ydTD34ydPUNT31ydTO212ydPUNT33ydTD569ydPUNT613ydPUNT39ydPUNT32ydFG1374ydFG652ydPUNT30ydTD657ydEND1-1ydPUNT30ydPUNT3-1ydTO20ydFG43ydPUNT3-10ydTO34ydTD411ydPUNT828ydTD973ydTD766ydPUNT531ydTD320ydTD1475ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Kentucky and Vanderbilt
StatisticKentuckyVanderbilt
Passing15-2920-47
Pass Yards205231
Rush Yards16097
Total Yards365328
Turnovers24
3rd Down5-116-17
Penalties10-1067-75
Possession31:1128:49

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Kentucky
passing
Devin Leary
15/29, 205 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Re'Mahn Davis
17 CAR, 78 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Barion Brown
4 REC, 105 YDS
defense
Vanderbilt
passing
AJ Swann
16/40, 189 YDS, 3 INT
rushing
Sedrick Alexander
8 CAR, 37 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Gamarion Carter
2 REC, 48 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 10 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Patrick Smith run for 1 yd to the VAN 36

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

AJ Swann pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

AJ Swann pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Matthew Hayball punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the UK 20

2nd & 8Penalty+15 yds

Vanderbilt Penalty, Targeting on MAHONEY, Jaylen enforced (Jaylen Mahoney) to the UK 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Barion Brown run for 4 yds to the VAN 47

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the VAN 45

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.72

Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 9 yds to the VAN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.72

Ray Davis run for no gain to the VAN 36

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +3.73

JuTahn McClain run for 36 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

AJ Swann pass complete to London Humphreys for 14 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

SWANN, AJ pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HUMPHREYS, London thrown to the KEN25. PENALTY VAN Personal Foul on HANSEN, Gunnar enforced 15 yards from the VAN39 to the VAN24 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the VAN 29

2nd & 20Interception Return Touchdown+29 ydsPPA -6.89

Maxwell Hairston 29 Yd Interception Return (Alex Raynor Kick)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Patrick Smith run for no gain to the VAN 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.29

AJ Swann pass complete to Patrick Smith for 1 yd to the VAN 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

AJ Swann pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Matthew Hayball punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.13

Ray Davis run for 12 yds to the UK 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.44

Devin Leary pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 10

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the VAN 10

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

AJ Swann pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Matthew Hayball punt for 59 yds, downed at the UK 31

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.14

Ray Davis run for 12 yds to the UK 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 43

2nd & 10Pass Reception+55 ydsPPA +4.41

Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 55 yds to the VAN 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Devin Leary pass incomplete

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Ray Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

AJ Swann pass complete to London Humphreys for 8 yds to the VAN 33

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

AJ Swann pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the VAN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

AJ Swann pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the VAN 38

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

AJ Swann pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Matthew Hayball punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the UK 16

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the UK 20 Ray Davis fumbled, recovered by UK Ray Davis

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 20

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Jayden McGowan run for 7 yds to the VAN 39

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VAN 34

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

AJ Swann pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

AJ Swann pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Matthew Hayball punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Barion Brown at the UK 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 9 yds to the UK 25

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

JuTahn McClain run for no gain to the UK 25

3rd & 1Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.43

Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 11 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

JuTahn McClain run for 9 yds to the UK 45

2nd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 4 yds to the UK 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

JuTahn McClain run for 3 yds to the VAN 48

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.73

Devin Leary run for 22 yds to the VAN 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.21

Devin Leary pass complete to Brenden Bates for 16 yds to the VAN 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

JuTahn McClain run for no gain to the VAN 10

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Devin Leary pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+27 yds

Alex Raynor 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Zion Childress) to the VAN 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.33

AJ Swann pass complete to Logan Kyle for 28 yds to the UK 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

AJ Swann run for 1 yd to the UK 23

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

AJ Swann pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

AJ Swann pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+41 yds

Jacob Borcila 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 19

2nd & 16Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Devin Leary pass complete to Anthony Brown-Stephens for 6 yds to the UK 25

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Devin Leary pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the VAN 43

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

AJ Swann pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.10

AJ Swann pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 9 yds to the UK 48

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.11

Patrick Smith run for 4 yds to the UK 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

SWANN, AJ pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SHEPPARD, Will broken up by HAIRSTON, Maxwell at the KEN10. PENALTY KEN Pass Interference on HAIRSTON, Maxwell enforced 15 yards to the KEN29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the UK 27

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

SWANN, AJ pass deep to the left complete for 27 yards to SHEPPARD, Will caught at the KEN0 and advanced to the KEN0, TOUCHDOWN VAN, score nullified by penalty, clock 00:47 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY VAN Holding on ASHMORE, Bradley enforced 10 yards from the KEN27 to the KEN37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 18Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.14

AJ Swann pass complete to Justin Ball for 22 yds to the UK 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

SWANN, AJ pass to the right incomplete intended for HUMPHREYS, London broken up by HAIRSTON, Maxwell at the KEN0. PENALTY KEN Face mask on WALLACE, Trevin enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the KEN15 to the KEN8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kneel down by LEARY, Devin at KEN24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Devin Leary pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Devin Leary pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.70

AJ Swann pass complete to Justin Ball for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 21

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

AJ Swann pass incomplete

3rd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.11

AJ Swann run for no gain to the VAN 21

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Matthew Hayball punt for 62 yds, downed at the UK 17

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 17

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA +0.02

Devin Leary pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the UK 13

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

AJ Swann pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

AJ Swann pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+32 yds

Jacob Borcila 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Devin Leary sacked by Darren Agu and Yilanan Ouattara for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 21

2nd & 14Rush-6 ydsPPA -0.27

Devin Leary run for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 15

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Devin Leary pass incomplete

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the VAN 48

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

AJ Swann pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 4 yds to the UK 48

3rd & 6Penalty-50 yds

Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (Gunnar Hansen) to the VAN 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 4 yds to the VAN 7

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the VAN 3

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.62

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the VAN 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Ray Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Kevo Wesley) to the VAN 15

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Chance Poore kickoff for 60 yds , Chase Gillespie return for no gain to the VAN 15

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Patrick Smith run for 1 yd to the VAN 16

2nd & 14Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.66

AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 16 yds to the VAN 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

AJ Swann pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Patrick Smith run for 7 yds to the VAN 39

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.56

AJ Swann run for 4 yds to the VAN 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.56

AJ Swann sacked by Deone Walker and Darrion Henry-Young for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 41

2nd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Patrick Smith run for 7 yds to the VAN 48

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

AJ Swann pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Matthew Hayball punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 12

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Devin Leary pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.25

Ray Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 7

3rd & 15Penalty+15 yds

LEARY, Devin pass to the right incomplete intended for DINGLE, Jordan thrown to the KEN15; QB hurried by CAPERS, Myles. PENALTY VAN Face mask on CAPERS, Myles enforced 15 yards from the KEN7 to the KEN22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.70

Ray Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 21

2nd & 11Penalty-5 yds

LEARY, Devin pass to the right complete for 9 yards to KEY, Dane caught at the KEN29 and advanced to the KEN30 (PATTERSON, Kane), clock 00:00. PENALTY KEN Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the KEN21 to the KEN16 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 16Penalty0 yds

LEARY, Devin pass to the left complete for 18 yards to ROBINSON, Tayvion caught at the KEN13 and advanced to the KEN34 (HOWSE IV, John), out of bounds. PENALTY KEN Holding on COX, Marques enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the KEN16 to the KEN10 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 22Rush+38 ydsPPA +3.34

Ray Davis run for 38 yds to the UK 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

MCCLAIN, JuTahn rush to the right for a loss of 2 yards to the KEN46 (CLIFTON, Nate). PENALTY KEN Holding on FORD, Courtland enforced 10 yards from the KEN48 to the KEN38 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.69

Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 37

2nd & 21Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.15

Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 13 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.66

Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 12 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.45

JuTahn McClain run for 16 yds to the VAN 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.65

Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 22 yds for a TD Kentucky Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dane Key) to the VAN 0 (Alex Raynor KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

AJ Swann pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

AJ Swann pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 3 yds to the VAN 37

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.56

AJ Swann pass complete to London Humphreys for 11 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +1.47

AJ Swann pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 39 yds to the UK 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Patrick Smith run for 4 yds to the UK 9

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

AJ Swann pass incomplete

3rd & 6Penalty+7 yds

SWANN, AJ pass to the left incomplete intended for SHEPPARD, Will broken up by WEAVER, J.J. at the KEN0. PENALTY KEN Pass Interference on HAIRSTON, Maxwell enforced 7 yards to the KEN2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Patrick Smith 2 Yd Run (AJ Swann Pass to Quincy Skinner Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the UK 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +3.26

Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 37 yds to the VAN 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Devin Leary pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

SUMO-KARNGBAYE, Demie rush up the middle for a gain of 16 yards to the VAN18 (BETTS-PAULEY, Dylan;AGU, Darren). PENALTY KEN Holding on COX, Eli enforced 10 yards from the VAN34 to the VAN44. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the VAN 44

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Devin Leary pass incomplete

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 44 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.78

AJ Swann pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 11 yds to the VAN 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.36

AJ Swann pass complete to Kamrean Johnson for 9 yds to the VAN 40

2nd & 1Interception Return Touchdown+54 ydsPPA -9.76

Maxwell Hairston 54 Yd Interception Return (Alex Raynor Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

AJ Swann pass complete to Logan Kyle for 5 yds to the VAN 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 34

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.34

Sedrick Alexander run for 6 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

AJ Swann pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.79

Sedrick Alexander run for 8 yds to the VAN 48

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.40

Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the UK 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Ken Seals pass complete to Logan Kyle for 4 yds to the UK 44

2nd & 6Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.15

Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 21 yds to the UK 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Ken Seals pass complete to Chase Gillespie for 7 yds to the UK 16

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.17

Chase Gillespie run for 6 yds to the UK 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Ken Seals pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Ken Seals pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Ken Seals pass incomplete

4th & 10Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +3.51

Ken Seals pass complete to Kamrean Johnson for 10 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kneel down by LEARY, Devin at KEN24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
31%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
43%
7 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play
40%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
4th

Vanderbilt

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
39%
28 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
23%
13 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
100%
5 plays
0%
1 play
11%
9 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play