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← Back to GamesSep 23, 2023Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

South Carolina by 4.5

Home Win Probability

South Carolina 56%

Market (Bovada)

South Carolina -6

Edge: Mississippi State +6 (1.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 23, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
01710330
South CarolinaSouth Carolina
71371037

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-014-720-1427-2427-2730-2737-2737-30
South CarolinaMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSSCMSSCMSSCMSSCMSSCMSSCMSSCMSSCMSSCMSSCMSSCMSSCPUNT634ydTD698ydPUNT520ydTD1699ydTD265ydPUNT33ydTO650ydPUNT522ydTD368ydTD1375ydFG644ydTD175ydTD975ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT34ydTO11ydFG939ydFG1058ydTO322ydTD422ydDOWNS940ydPUNT35ydFG1368ydEND3-11yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and South Carolina
StatisticMississippi StateSouth Carolina
Passing30-4818-20
Pass Yards487288
Rush Yards32144
Total Yards519432
Turnovers21
3rd Down5-145-13
Penalties5-484-35
Possession28:1831:42

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
30/48, 487 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jo'quavious Marks
12 CAR, 27 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Lideatrick Griffin
7 REC, 256 YDS, 1 TD
defense
South Carolina
passing
Spencer Rattler
18/20, 288 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Mario Anderson
26 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Xavier Legette
5 REC, 189 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MSST 23

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MSST 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.79

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 33 yds to the SC 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the SC 44

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the SC 41

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'Quavious Marks

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Dakereon Joyner run for 1 yd to the SC 3

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Dakereon Joyner run for 2 yds to the SC 5

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.78

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 13 yds to the SC 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Dakereon Joyner run for no gain to the SC 18

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 6 yds to the SC 24

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+76 ydsPPA +6.87

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 76 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MSST 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.34

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 10 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Will Rogers run for 7 yds to the MSST 46

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.30

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion Thomas

3rd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 1 yd to the MSST 45

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 54 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Mario Anderson run for 3 yds to the SC 4

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.39

Mario Anderson run for 9 yds to the SC 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Mario Anderson run for 3 yds to the SC 16

2nd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Spencer Rattler pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 11 yds to the SC 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Mario Anderson run for 2 yds to the SC 29

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Mario Anderson run for 3 yds to the SC 32

3rd & 5Penalty+15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Rattler,Spencer sacked for loss of 3 yards to the S. Car29 (Watson,Nathaniel) PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (Watson,Nathaniel) 15 yards from S. Car32 to S. Car47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Dakereon Joyner run for 7 yds to the MSST 46

2nd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.17

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Luke Doty for 4 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Dakereon Joyner run for 2 yds to the MSST 40

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Spencer Rattler run for 6 yds to the MSST 34

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Dakereon Joyner run for 1 yd to the MSST 33

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.52

Mario Anderson run for 5 yds to the MSST 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Mario Anderson run for 5 yds to the MSST 23

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the MSST 22

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.66

Mario Anderson run for no gain to the MSST 22

4th & 4Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY MSU Offside (Watson,Nathaniel) 5 yards from MSU22 to MSU17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 17 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+65 ydsPPA +6.26

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 65 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Dakereon Joyner run for 5 yds to the SC 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.75

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for no gain to the SC 30

3rd & 5Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.46

Spencer Rattler sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 2 yards to the SC 28

4th & 7Punt+15 yds

Kai Kroeger punt for 49 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 15 yds to the MSST 38

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin Robinson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +3.48

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 47 yds to the SC 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the SC 15

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 6 yds to the SC 9

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.45

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 9 yds Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryland Goede) to the SC 12

3rd & 7Interception0 ydsPPA -4.01

Will Rogers pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the SC 3

2nd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.65

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 14 yds to the SC 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Mario Anderson run for 6 yds to the SC 23

2nd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 1 yd to the SC 22

3rd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Spencer Rattler pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 2 yds to the SC 24

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Kai Kroeger punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MSST 33

2nd & 9Pass Reception+60 ydsPPA +4.09

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 60 yds to the SC 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 7 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Tyshawn Russell for 5 yds to the SC 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Dakereon Joyner run for 2 yds to the SC 32

3rd & 13Rush+25 ydsPPA +3.15

Spencer Rattler run for 25 yds to the SC 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.90

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 8 yds to the MSST 45

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.10

Mario Anderson run for 7 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Spencer Rattler run for 8 yds to the MSST 30

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.14

Mario Anderson run for 9 yds to the MSST 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 7 yds to the MSST 14

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Mario Anderson run for 2 yds to the MSST 12

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.16

Mario Anderson run for 3 yds to the MSST 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Mario Anderson run for 5 yds to the MSST 4

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the MSST 3

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Dakereon Joyner run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.26

Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 13 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.73

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the SC 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Will Rogers pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 4 yds to the SC 36

2nd & 1Field Goal Good+49 yds

Kyle Ferrie 49 yd FG GOOD

0th & 1End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.08

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 75 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 9 yds to the MSST 34

2nd & 1Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.91

Will Rogers sacked by Alex Huntley for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.81

Will Rogers pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 19 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +1.29

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 30 yds to the SC 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan Mosley

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.51

Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 11 yds to the SC 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Lideatrick Griffin run for 9 yds to the SC 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the SC 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Mike Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Mario Anderson run for 3 yds to the SC 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Mario Anderson run for 2 yds to the SC 30

3rd & 5Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.64

Spencer Rattler sacked by Jett Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the SC 18

4th & 17Punt+4 yds

Kai Kroeger punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 35 , Zavion Thomas returns for 4 yds to the MSST 35

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.72

Will Rogers sacked by T.J. Sanders for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 29

2nd & 16Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.60

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the MSST 39

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion Thomas

4th & 6Punt+22 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SC 43 , Eddie Lewis returns for 22 yds to the SC 43

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -2.53

Dakereon Joyner run for 1 yd to the SC 44 Dakereon Joyner fumbled, recovered by MSST Nathaniel Watson

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Mike Wright run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 16Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 5 yds to the SC 45

3rd & 11Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.98

Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 21 yds to the SC 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 7 yds to the SC 17

2nd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.18

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 4 yds to the SC 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the SC 9

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Will Rogers run for 4 yds to the SC 5 Will Rogers fumbled, recovered by MSST Antonio Harmon

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the SC 5

4th & 2Penalty0 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (DeShawn Page) declined

4th & 2Field Goal Good+23 yds

Kyle Ferrie 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mario Anderson run for no gain to the SC 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.02

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 15 yds to the SC 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the SC 41

2nd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.37

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 17 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 15Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.06

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Anderson for 10 yds to the MSST 37

2nd & 5Rush+28 ydsPPA +0.78

Spencer Rattler run for 28 yds to the MSST 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the MSST 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to O'Mega Blake

3rd & 8Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.72

Spencer Rattler sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 17

4th & 17Field Goal Good+35 yds

Mitch Jeter 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MSST 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.18

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 11 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -2.01

Will Rogers sacked by Jordan Strachan for a loss of 5 yards to the MSST 22 Will Rogers fumbled, recovered by MSST , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Spencer Rattler pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 9 yds to the MSST 13

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.41

Mario Anderson run for 4 yds to the MSST 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Mario Anderson run for no gain to the MSST 9

2nd & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.74

Mario Anderson run for 9 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

PENALTY MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Crumedy,Jaden) 15 yards from S. Car35 to S. Car50. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Mitch Jeter kickoff for 48 yds , Zavion Thomas return for 14 yds to the MSST 16

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion Thomas

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the MSST 29

2nd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Will Rogers pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 9 yds to the MSST 38

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion Thomas

4th & 3Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.17

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 15 yds to the SC 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.35

Will Rogers sacked by Alex Huntley for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 47

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

3rd & 16Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 9 yds to the SC 44

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin Robinson

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Mario Anderson run for 3 yds to the SC 47

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Trey Knox

3rd & 7Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.86

Spencer Rattler sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 1 yard to the SC 46

4th & 8Punt+11 yds

Kai Kroeger punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 19 , Zavion Thomas returns for 11 yds to the MSST 43 Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Decamerion Richardson) to the MSST 19

4th & 8Punt+11 yds

Kai Kroeger punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 3 , Zavion Thomas returns for 11 yds to the MSST 43 Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Decamerion Richardson) to the MSST 3

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.26

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for no gain to the MSST 3

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.73

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 15 yds to the MSST 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan Mosley

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 7 yds to the MSST 25

3rd & 3Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.22

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 29 yds to the SC 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan Mosley

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Freddie Roberson

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan Mosley

4th & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +3.49

Will Rogers pass complete to Creed Whittemore for 11 yds to the SC 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin Robinson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Will Rogers pass complete to Creed Whittemore for 6 yds to the SC 29

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

4th & 4Field Goal Good+47 yds

Kyle Ferrie 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.18

Kneel down by South Carolina at S. Car46 for loss of 5 yards.

2nd & 15Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.07

Kneel down by South Carolina at S. Car42 for loss of 4 yards.

3rd & 19Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.27

Kneel down by South Carolina at S. Car40 for loss of 2 yards.

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
37%
30 plays
2nd
0%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
90%
10 plays
67%
6 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays

South Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
44%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
40%
5 plays
17%
6 plays
62%
13 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
67%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play