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← Back to GamesSep 23, 2023Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

Florida by 21.6

Home Win Probability

Florida 91%

Market (Bovada)

Florida -27.5

Edge: Charlotte +27.5 (5.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 23, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
CharlotteCharlotte
07007
FloridaFlorida
1063322

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-010-013-016-719-722-7
FloridaCharlotte

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CHAFLOCHAFLOCHAFLOCHAFLOCHAFLOCHAFLOCHAFLOCHAFLOCHAFLOCHAFLOCHAFLOPUNT37ydTD995ydPUNT31ydFG767ydPUNT622ydFG1091ydPUNT3-13ydFG4-3ydTD875ydPUNT3-1ydEND325ydTO35ydMISS4-5ydFG946ydPUNT510ydDOWNS745ydPUNT921ydPUNT524ydPUNT35ydFG534ydDOWNS740ydEND2-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Charlotte and Florida
StatisticCharlotteFlorida
Passing14-2520-23
Pass Yards133259
Rush Yards78136
Total Yards211395
Turnovers02
3rd Down3-131-9
Penalties7-485-35
Possession28:2531:35

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Charlotte
passing
Jalon Jones
11/16, 111 YDS
rushing
Jalon Jones
21 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Colin Weber
4 REC, 54 YDS
defense
Florida
passing
Graham Mertz
20/23, 259 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Montrell Johnson
16 CAR, 63 YDS
receiving
Ricky Pearsall
6 REC, 104 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jalon Jones run for no gain to the CLT 25 Jalon Jones fumbled, recovered by CLT

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jalon Jones pass complete to Jake Clemons for 3 yds to the CLT 28

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the CLT 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Grant Gonya punt for 58 yds , Ricky Pearsall returns for no gain to the FLA 5

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.34

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the FLA 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.11

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 27 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.37

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 42

2nd & 11Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.36

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 13 yds to the CLT 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the CLT 41

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the CLT 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.37

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 18 yds to the CLT 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the CLT 12

2nd & 6Penalty0 yds

(08:35) MERTZ, Graham pass to the right incomplete intended for DOUGLAS, Caleb thrown to the CHA0, clock 08:30. PENALTY CHA Holding on BALFOUR, Dontae enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the CHA12 to the CHA6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 6 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Trexler Ivey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Shadrick Byrd run for 1 yd to the CLT 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Trexler Ivey pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Grant Gonya punt for 60 yds , Ricky Pearsall returns for no gain to the FLA 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 21 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.40

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 25 yds to the CLT 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.21

Graham Mertz run for 12 yds to the CLT 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Trevor Etienne run for 4 yds to the CLT 13

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 5 yds to the CLT 8

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the CLT 8

4th & 1Field Goal Good+27 yds

Trey Smack 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Trexler Ivey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Trexler Ivey pass complete to Malik Baker II for 2 yds to the CLT 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.25

Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 13 yds to the CLT 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Trexler Ivey pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the CLT 47

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.30

Trexler Ivey pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Trexler Ivey pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Grant Gonya punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 6

2nd & 8Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.26

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 22 yds to the FLA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 28

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Charlotte Penalty, Roughing the Passer on HANDY, Stone enforced (15 Yards) to the CLT 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.85

Graham Mertz pass complete to Andy Jean for 32 yds to the CLT 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Graham Mertz run for 1 yd to the CLT 11

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Treyaun Webb run for 2 yds to the CLT 9

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the CLT 5

4th & 3Field Goal Good+23 yds

Trey Smack 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-13 ydsPPA -1.27

Trexler Ivey sacked by Bryce Thornton and Caleb Banks for a loss of 13 yards to the CLT 12

2nd & 23Rush0 ydsPPA -0.04

Shadrick Byrd run for no gain to the CLT 12

3rd & 23Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.02

Trexler Ivey pass incomplete

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Grant Gonya punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MERTZ, Graham pass up the middle complete for 3 yards to PEARSALL, Ricky caught at the CHA37 and advanced to the CHA30 (FONTAINE, Austin), clock 11:10. PENALTY Before the snap, UF Illegal Formation on HUDSON II, Lyndell enforced 5 yards from the CHA33 to the CHA38. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Penalty-10 yds

(10:48) ETIENNE, Trevor rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the CHA30 (KNIGHT II, Demetrius), clock 10:42. PENALTY UF Holding on HARRIS, Knijeah enforced 10 yards from the CHA38 to the CHA48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 7 yds to the CLT 41

2nd & 18Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.60

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ja'Quavion Fraziars for 13 yds to the CLT 28

3rd & 5Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.52

Graham Mertz sacked by Demetrius Knight II for a loss of 8 yards to the CLT 36

4th & 13Field Goal Good+54 yds

Trey Smack 54 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the CLT 29

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.24

Jalon Jones run for 9 yds to the CLT 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.66

Henry Rutledge run for 20 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Jalon Jones run for no gain to the FLA 42

2nd & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +1.88

Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for 34 yds to the FLA 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Penalty-5 yds

Charlotte Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FLA 13

1st & 13Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.19

Jalon Jones pass complete to Jake Clemons for 1 yd to the FLA 12

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jalon Jones run for 5 yds to the FLA 7

3rd & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.88

Jalon Jones run for 7 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.55

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 31

2nd & 14Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 3 yds to the FLA 34

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 19

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Jalon Jones run for 2 yds to the CLT 21

2nd & 8Rush+30 ydsPPA +3.02

Jalon Jones run for 30 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.53

Jalon Jones sacked by Shemar James for a loss of 7 yards to the CLT 44

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Graham Mertz run for 5 yds to the FLA 32

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.27

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.47

Graham Mertz sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the FLA 32

1st & 10Rush-10 ydsPPA -2.54

Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 10 yards to the FLA 42

2nd & 20Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jalon Jones run for 5 yds to the FLA 37

3rd & 15Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.89

Jalon Jones pass complete to Bryce Kennon for no gain to the FLA 37

4th & 15Field Goal Missed+55 yds

Kyle Cunanan 55 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.44

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 16 yds to the CLT 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.68

Trevor Etienne run for 13 yds to the CLT 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the CLT 31

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 6 yds to the CLT 25

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.24

run for 1 yd to the CLT 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 7 yds to the CLT 17

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.50

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the CLT 17

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

4th & 3Field Goal Good+36 yds

Trey Smack 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for 1 yd to the CLT 26

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Shadrick Byrd run for 4 yds to the CLT 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.59

Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for 6 yds to the CLT 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Henry Rutledge run for 9 yds to the CLT 45

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

Charlotte Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Eyabi Okie-Anoma) to the CLT 40

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Jalon Jones pass incomplete

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

(04:27) JONES, Jalon pass deep to the right complete for 52 yards to HESTERA, Jack caught at the UF15 and advanced to the UF8 (MOTEN, R.J.), clock 04:23. PENALTY CHA Illegal Forward Pass on JONES, Jalon enforced 5 yards from the CHA40 to the CHA35, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 11Blocked Punt0 yds

punt blocked by Derek Wingo blocked by Derek Wingo

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the FLA 26

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +2.23

Andy Jean run for 25 yds to the CLT 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ja'Quavion Fraziars for 5 yds to the CLT 41

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the CLT 38

3rd & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.78

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 41

4th & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+3 ydsPPA -1.42

Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 3 yds Caleb Douglas fumbled, recovered by CLT DeAndre Hollins

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Henry Rutledge run for 1 yd to the CLT 39

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Jalon Jones run for 2 yds to the CLT 41

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Jalon Jones pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 6 yds to the CLT 47

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

Florida Penalty, Offsides (Tyreak Sapp) to the FLA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.53

Jalon Jones sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 7 yards to the CLT 45

2nd & 17Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.21

Jalon Jones pass complete to Jake Clemons for 19 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the FLA 32

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

Charlotte Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kevin Williams) to the FLA 37

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the FLA 33

3rd & 7Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.48

Jalon Jones sacked by Kelby Collins and Caleb Banks for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 41

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Grant Gonya punt for 41 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the FLA 26

2nd & 4Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.63

Trevor Etienne run for 17 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.37

Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 42

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the FLA 48

3rd & 5Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.34

Graham Mertz sacked by Nikhai Hill-Green for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 44

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 5

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.39

Jalon Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the CLT 1

2nd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Jalon Jones run for 3 yds to the CLT 4

3rd & 11Penalty0 yds

Charlotte Penalty, False Start (Jasper Parks) to the CLT 2

3rd & 13Penalty0 yds

JONES, Jalon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for THOMAS JR., Duane thrown to the CHA37, clock 04:47. PENALTY CHA Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WEBER, Colin UF Face mask on BANKS, Caleb , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 13Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.05

Jalon Jones pass complete to Jack Hestera for 8 yds to the CLT 10

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Grant Gonya punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.63

Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 25 yds to the CLT 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the CLT 15

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.38

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds to the CLT 6

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Graham Mertz run for no gain to the CLT 6

4th & 1Field Goal Good+23 yds

Trey Smack 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Jalon Jones pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 10 yds to the CLT 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Jalon Jones run for 7 yds to the CLT 42

2nd & 3Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.56

Jalon Jones pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 23 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Jalon Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Jalon Jones pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Jalon Jones pass incomplete

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.40

Jalon Jones pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

(00:51) [NH] Kneel down by MERTZ, Graham at UF34 (team loss of 1), clock 00:48.

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.52

(00:08) [NH] Kneel down by MERTZ, Graham at UF33 (team loss of 1), clock 00:06.

Situational Analysis

Charlotte

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
25%
20 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
25%
8 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
43%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
52%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
80%
5 plays
80%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
20%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play