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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Alabama by 20.9

Home Win Probability

South Florida 9%

Market (Bovada)

South Florida +34.5

Edge: South Florida +34.5 (13.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
AlabamaAlabama
037717
South FloridaSouth Florida
30003

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40143-03-33-103-17
South FloridaAlabama

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ALASFALASFSFALASFALASFALASFALASFALASFALASFALASFALASFALASFALASFPUNT423ydPUNT33ydPUNT36ydTO517ydFG44ydPUNT515ydDOWNS931ydPUNT69ydDOWNS1552ydPUNT825ydTO22ydFG513ydPUNT616ydEND522ydDOWNS725ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT518ydTD684ydDOWNS853ydPUNT511ydPUNT37ydPUNT519ydTO628ydTD1180ydEND2-5yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Alabama and South Florida
StatisticAlabamaSouth Florida
Passing10-2314-28
Pass Yards10787
Rush Yards203177
Total Yards310264
Turnovers12
3rd Down5-155-17
Penalties5-355-40
Possession29:3430:26

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Alabama
passing
Ty Simpson
5/9, 73 YDS
rushing
Roydell Williams
17 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
C.J. Dippre
1 REC, 45 YDS
defense
South Florida
passing
Byrum Brown
14/28, 87 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Byrum Brown
23 CAR, 92 YDS
receiving
Sean Atkins
6 REC, 42 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Jase McClellan run for 19 yds to the ALA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Tyler Buchner pass complete to Jase McClellan for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.70

Jase McClellan run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 48

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Jermaine Burton

4th & 6Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 41 yds, downed at the USF 11

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.41

Byrum Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 10

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the USF 16

3rd & 5Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.22

Byrum Brown sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 14

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Isaiah Bond

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Tyler Buchner pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 6 yds to the USF 44

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Jermaine Burton

4th & 4Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 44 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the USF 27

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.43

Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the USF 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem Simmons

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the USF 37

3rd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.49

Byrum Brown run for no gain to the USF 37

4th & 6Punt+32 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 32 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 30 Kool-Aid McKinstry fumbled, recovered by USF D.J. Harris

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean Atkins

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Khafre Brown

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the ALA 26

4th & 6Field Goal Good+44 yds

John Cannon 44 yd FG GOOD

4th & 6Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Brendan Farrell kickoff for 65 yds , Terrion Arnold return for 22 yds to the ALA 43 Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ALA 12

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the ALA 13

2nd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.05

Tyler Buchner pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 13 yds to the ALA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the ALA 27

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Isaiah Bond

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Ja'Corey Brooks

4th & 9Punt+5 yds

James Burnip punt for 60 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 5 yds to the USF 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.05

Byrum Brown pass complete to Michel Dukes for 9 yds to the USF 27

2nd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Byrum Brown pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 4 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the USF 35

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Nay'Quan Wright

3rd & 6Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.50

Byrum Brown run for 12 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Michel Dukes run for 4 yds to the ALA 49

2nd & 6Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.26

Byrum Brown sacked by Deontae Lawson for a loss of 6 yards to the USF 45

3rd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.73

Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 9 yds to the ALA 46

4th & 3Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.22

Byrum Brown sacked by Dallas Turner and Justin Eboigbe for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 49

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Tyler Buchner run for 8 yds to the USF 41

2nd & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.10

Tyler Buchner pass complete to Malik Benson for no gain to the USF 41

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.95

Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.18

Roydell Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 40

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Kobe Prentice

3rd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.92

Roydell Williams run for no gain to the USF 40

4th & 12Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 40 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Byrum Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 18

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the USF 23

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.45

Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean Atkins

2nd & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.66

Nay'Quan Wright run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the ALA 48

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.33

Byrum Brown run for 9 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Khafre Brown

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 1 yd to the ALA 38

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the ALA 35

4th & 6Penalty+5 yds

Alabama Penalty, Defensive Offside (Dallas Turner) to the ALA 30

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.26

Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the ALA 28

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-Stephens

3rd & 10Penalty-10 yds

South Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derek Bowman) to the ALA 38

3rd & 20Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 4 yds to the ALA 34

4th & 16Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.87

Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the ALA 28

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Jase McClellan run for no gain to the ALA 28

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.80

Jase McClellan run for 11 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Isaiah Bond

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.05

Tyler Buchner pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 9 yds to the ALA 48

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the USF 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the USF 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Jermaine Burton

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Isaiah Bond

4th & 8Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 47 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the USF 22

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 25 Byrum Brown fumbled, recovered by ALA James Smith

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.38

Jase McClellan run for 17 yds to the USF 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Ty Simpson pass incomplete

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the USF 5

3rd & 5Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.02

Ty Simpson sacked by Daquan Evans for a loss of 7 yards to the USF 12

4th & 12Field Goal Good+30 yds

Will Reichard 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the USF 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 38

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Khafre Brown

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 41

4th & 6Punt+34 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 10 South Florida Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Gunnar Greenwald) to the ALA 25

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Jase McClellan run for 9 yds to the ALA 34

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.28

Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Malik Benson

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the ALA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Ty Simpson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.16

Jase McClellan run for 12 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 29

3rd & 6Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.47

Byrum Brown run for 15 yds to the USF 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-Stephens

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 5 yds to the USF 49

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

South Florida Penalty, False Start (Donovan Jennings) to the USF 44

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 47

4th & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Gunnar Greenwald run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the USF 46

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the USF 45

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

Alabama Penalty, False Start (Amari Niblack) to the 50 yard line

3rd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.20

Ty Simpson sacked by Jaelen Stokes for a loss of 7 yards to the ALA 43

4th & 17Punt+7 yds

James Burnip punt for 47 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 7 yds to the USF 17

1st & 10Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -0.72

Byrum Brown pass complete to K'Wan Powell for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 12

2nd & 15Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.40

Byrum Brown run for 16 yds to the USF 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.91

K'Wan Powell run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 27

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 28

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 7 yds to the USF 35

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 16

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Ty Simpson pass incomplete to CJ Dippre

2nd & 10Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +3.90

Ty Simpson pass complete to CJ Dippre for 45 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Roydell Williams run for 7 yds to the USF 32

2nd & 3Rush+26 ydsPPA +0.65

Roydell Williams run for 26 yds to the USF 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.15

Ty Simpson pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 5 yds to the USF 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Roydell Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 12 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 39

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 40

3rd & 7Rush+31 ydsPPA +3.61

Byrum Brown run for 31 yds to the ALA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-Stephens

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

K'Wan Powell run for 7 yds to the ALA 22

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

K'Wan Powell run for 1 yd to the ALA 21

4th & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -3.50

Byrum Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 22

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.01

Ty Simpson sacked by Jason Vaughn for a loss of 8 yards to the ALA 14

2nd & 18Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.44

Roydell Williams run for 13 yds to the ALA 27

3rd & 5Penalty+5 yds

South Florida Penalty, Defensive Offside (Aamaris Brown) to the ALA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.53

Ty Simpson sacked by Daquan Evans for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 26

2nd & 16Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.13

Ty Simpson pass complete to Roydell Williams for 2 yds to the ALA 28

3rd & 14Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.34

Ty Simpson run for 10 yds to the ALA 38

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

Alabama Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ALA 33

4th & 9Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem Simmons

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

K'Wan Powell run for 3 yds to the USF 18

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the USF 22

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 56 yds, downed at the ALA 22

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.70

Jase McClellan run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 21

2nd & 11Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.73

Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 14 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the ALA 38

2nd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.29

Ty Simpson sacked by Daquan Evans for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 34

3rd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Ty Simpson pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 7 yds to the ALA 41

4th & 4Punt+10 yds

James Burnip punt for 38 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 10 yds to the USF 31

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Jayson Littlejohn

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 33

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 39

4th & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +2.30

Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 5 yds to the USF 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.13

Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 15 yds to the ALA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.76

Byrum Brown pass intercepted, touchback. Malachi Moore return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the ALA 23

2nd & 7Rush+48 ydsPPA +3.83

Roydell Williams run for 48 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the USF 28

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Ty Simpson run for 6 yds to the USF 22

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the USF 21

4th & 2Penalty+5 yds

South Florida Penalty, Defensive Offside (DJ Gordon IV) to the USF 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Williams, Roydell rush for 16 yards to the SOUFLA0, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Proctor, Kadyn) 10 yards to the SOUFLA26, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.59

Roydell Williams run for 12 yds to the USF 14

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Roydell Williams run for 7 yds to the USF 7

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.83

Ty Simpson run for 3 yds to the USF 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the USF 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the USF 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Ty Simpson run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem Simmons

2nd & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.51

Byrum Brown sacked by Chris Braswell for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 20

Situational Analysis

Alabama

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
26%
23 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
40%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
69%
13 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th

South Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
15%
27 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
31%
16 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
44%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
50%
4 plays
0%
1 play
0%
1 play