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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

North Carolina by 3.1

Home Win Probability

North Carolina 58%

Market (Bovada)

North Carolina -7

Edge: Minnesota +7 (3.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MinnesotaMinnesota
0103013
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
7143731

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-321-321-1324-1331-13
North CarolinaMinnesota

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NCMINNCMINNCMINNCMINNCMINNCMINNCMINNCMINNCMINNCMINNCMINNCTD975ydTO750ydPUNT1035ydPUNT529ydTD680ydPUNT30ydTO10ydFG711ydTO940ydPUNT419ydTD780ydTD775ydEND11ydFG948ydPUNT620ydTO953ydFG856ydPUNT632ydPUNT419ydPUNT37ydTD1176ydPUNT31ydEND622yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Minnesota and North Carolina
StatisticMinnesotaNorth Carolina
Passing11-3029-40
Pass Yards133414
Rush Yards170105
Total Yards303519
Turnovers22
3rd Down3-1212-17
Penalties3-255-47
Possession26:5033:10

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Minnesota
passing
Athan Kaliakmanis
11/29, 133 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Darius Taylor
22 CAR, 138 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Corey Crooms
4 REC, 46 YDS
defense
Jack Henderson
1 TFL, 1 PD
North Carolina
passing
Drake Maye
29/40, 414 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Omarion Hampton
13 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Nate Mccollum
15 REC, 165 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 3 yds to the UNC 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.19

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 18 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 48

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the MINN 48

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the MINN 45

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.02

Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the MINN 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollum

2nd & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.48

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 46

3rd & 12Passing Touchdown+46 ydsPPA +5.86

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 46 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.24

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Darius Taylor for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Corey Crooms Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.82

Athan Kaliakmanis run for 11 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 1 yd to the UNC 38

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Darius Taylor run for 8 yds to the UNC 30

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.44

Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the UNC 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.30

Athan Kaliakmanis pass intercepted Power Echols return for no gain to the UNC 16

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 18

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Drake Maye pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.66

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 14 yds to the UNC 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Minnesota Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the UNC 37

1st & 5Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.69

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 36

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the UNC 37

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.93

Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the UNC 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

North Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNC 38

1st & 15Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.21

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 17 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

British Brooks run for no gain to the MINN 45

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

British Brooks run for 2 yds to the MINN 43

3rd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.76

Drake Maye sacked by Kyler Baugh and Jah Joyner for a loss of 6 yards to the MINN 49

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Drake Maye punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MINN 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.69

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 13 yds to the MINN 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.45

Darius Taylor run for 16 yds to the MINN 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Corey Crooms Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.82

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Sean Tyler for no gain to the MINN 42

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Chris Autman-Bell

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.89

Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 17 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 40

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Drake Maye run for 4 yds to the UNC 44

3rd & 5Pass Reception+55 ydsPPA +4.96

Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 55 yds to the MINN 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Darius Taylor run for no gain to the MINN 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel Jackson

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Brevyn Spann-Ford

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 28

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+17 ydsPPA -1.14

Drake Maye pass intercepted Jack Henderson return for 17 yds to the UNC 16

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.38

Darius Taylor run for 9 yds to the UNC 7

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.63

Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the UNC 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel Jackson

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Darius Taylor run for no gain to the UNC 5

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel Jackson

4th & 5Field Goal Good+23 yds

Dragan Kesich 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 7 yds to the UNC 32

2nd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.26

British Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.37

Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 14 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 4 yds to the UNC 48

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.99

Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNC 44

1st & 20Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 9 yds to the MINN 47

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Drake Maye pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.86

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 12 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.03

Drake Maye pass intercepted Chris Collins return for no gain to the MINN 28

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.29

Darius Taylor run for 14 yds to the MINN 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the MINN 47

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.19

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 53 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 24

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 5 yds to the UNC 29

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.70

Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the UNC 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 31

2nd & 9Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.59

Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 39 yds to the MINN 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.21

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 11 yds to the MINN 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 19 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the MINN 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the MINN 42

2nd & 8Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.53

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 25 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.31

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 15 yds to the UNC 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 4 yds to the UNC 14

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the UNC 12

3rd & 4Penalty+7 yds

North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the UNC 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the UNC 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Darius Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

British Brooks run for 1 yd to the UNC 26

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the MINN 28

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.23

Darius Taylor run for 8 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the MINN 40

2nd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.70

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Sean Tyler for 13 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.82

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 18 yds to the UNC 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Sean Tyler run for no gain to the UNC 29

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel Jackson

3rd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 2 yds to the UNC 27

4th & 8Field Goal Good+45 yds

Dragan Kesich 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 11 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 8 yds to the UNC 44

2nd & 2Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 2 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.14

Drake Maye sacked by Danny Striggow for a loss of 5 yards to the UNC 41

2nd & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 4 yds to the UNC 45

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Andre Greene Jr.

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the MINN 13

1st & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.04

Darius Taylor run for 28 yds to the MINN 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the MINN 43

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Sean Tyler run for no gain to the MINN 43

3rd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.89

Athan Kaliakmanis run for 13 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Le'Meke Brockington

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the UNC 39

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Cole Kramer run for 4 yds to the UNC 35

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.53

Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the UNC 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.06

Cole Kramer pass intercepted, touchback. Armani Chatman return for no gain

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Drake Maye pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 5 yds to the UNC 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.95

Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 13 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +2.27

Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 38 yds to the MINN 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Drake Maye pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Drake Maye pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Drake Maye pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+42 yds

Noah Burnette 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Darius Taylor run for 10 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the MINN 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.99

Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 17 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the UNC 43

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.86

Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 17 yds to the UNC 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UNC 27

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNC 17

2nd & 20Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.07

Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for no gain to the UNC 17

3rd & 20Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.15

Drake Maye pass complete to British Brooks for 12 yds to the UNC 29

4th & 8Punt+38 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MINN 48 Minnesota Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MINN 33

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.66

Darius Taylor run for 8 yds to the MINN 41

3rd & 2Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.97

Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Jacolbe Cowan for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 40

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 36 yds, downed at the UNC 24

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the UNC 29

2nd & 5Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.87

Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 17 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.13

Omarion Hampton run for 17 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Drake Maye pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the MINN 31

3rd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.95

Drake Maye run for 12 yds to the MINN 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

British Brooks run for 3 yds to the MINN 16

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

British Brooks run for 4 yds to the MINN 12

3rd & 3Penalty+5 yds

Minnesota Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MINN 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

British Brooks run for 6 yds to the MINN 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Drake Maye run for no gain to the MINN 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

British Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.13

Athan Kaliakmanis run for 1 yd to the MINN 26

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 26

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 29

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 34

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.28

Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

British Brooks run for 1 yd to the UNC 39

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

British Brooks run for 7 yds to the UNC 46

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.27

British Brooks run for 2 yds to the UNC 48 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Minnesota

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
33%
27 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
40%
5 plays
54%
13 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
17%
6 plays
4th
100%
1 play

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
32%
31 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
50%
14 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
83%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play