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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 6.8

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 65%

Market (Bovada)

Mississippi State +9.5

Edge: Mississippi State +9.5 (16.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LSULSU
101410741
Mississippi StateMississippi State
070714

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-30-170-247-277-4114-41
Mississippi StateLSU

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSULSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUPUNT412ydFG1477ydPUNT3-7ydTD470ydPUNT30ydTD863ydPUNT37ydPUNT813ydPUNT3-5ydTD666ydTD672ydEND216ydFG1153ydDOWNS938ydTD562ydPUNT31ydTD1275ydPUNT620ydPUNT36ydTD1058ydEND514yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing LSU and Mississippi State
StatisticLSUMississippi State
Passing31-3712-29
Pass Yards367107
Rush Yards16394
Total Yards530201
Turnovers00
3rd Down9-163-13
Penalties6-504-41
Possession38:3921:21

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

LSU
passing
Jayden Daniels
30/34, 361 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Jayden Daniels
15 CAR, 64 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Malik Nabers
13 REC, 239 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
11/28, 103 YDS
rushing
Jo'quavious Marks
8 CAR, 75 YDS
receiving
Zavion Thomas
3 REC, 52 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 12 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the MSST 37

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan Mosley

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Antonio Harmon

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 17

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

LSU Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the LSU 12

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the LSU 17

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.34

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Logan Diggs for 8 yds to the LSU 25

3rd & 2Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.02

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Logan Diggs for 16 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.61

Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jaden Crumedy) to the MSST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.34

Jayden Daniels pass complete to John Emery Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 40

2nd & 13Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mac Markway for 5 yds to the MSST 35

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 6 yds to the MSST 29

4th & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.39

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 5 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 9 yds to the MSST 15

2nd & 1Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA -0.47

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 5 yds to the MSST 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 2 yds to the MSST 8

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the MSST 2

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the MSST 1

4th & 0Penalty-5 yds

Diggs, Logan rush for 1 yard to the MISSSTATE0, PENALTY LSU false start 5 yards to the MISSSTATE6, NO PLAY.

4th & 6Field Goal Good+22 yds

Damian Ramos 22 yd FG GOOD

4th & 6Kickoff Return (Offense)+39 yds

Nathan Dibert kickoff for 63 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 39 yds to the MSST 41

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.17

Will Rogers sacked by Sai'vion Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 34

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Freddie Roberson

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'Quavious Marks

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 36 yds, downed at the LSU 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.60

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 32 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Logan Diggs run for 8 yds to the MSST 30

2nd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.23

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 4 yds to the MSST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.72

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 26 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the MSST 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin Robinson

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'Quavious Marks

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.21

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the MSST 46

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Mac Markway

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.11

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 10 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 34

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the MSST 29

3rd & 3Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.73

Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 33

4th & 7Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +5.06

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 33 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

3rd & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.19

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds to the MSST 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 20

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.38

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 12 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.89

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Aaron Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 36

3rd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.00

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 15 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the MSST 44

2nd & 5Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.74

Jayden Daniels sacked by Deonte Anderson and Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 48

3rd & 13Penalty-10 yds

Daniels, Jayden rush for 9 yards to the MISSSTATE43, PENALTY LSU holding (Heard, Lance) 10 yards to the LSU38, NO PLAY.

3rd & 23Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.17

Jayden Daniels sacked by Jaden Crumedy for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 33

4th & 28Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 27

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Zavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the MSST 29

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Freddie Roberson

3rd & 8Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.40

Will Rogers sacked by Mekhi Wingo for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 22

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +2.74

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 48 yds to the MSST 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the MSST 11

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.09

Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the MSST 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the MSST 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Josh Williams run for no gain to the MSST 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Josh Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

3rd & 4Kickoff Return (Offense)+28 yds

Nathan Dibert kickoff for 65 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 28 yds to the MSST 28

1st & 10Rush+52 ydsPPA +3.24

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 52 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Antonio Harmon

2nd & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.90

Will Rogers sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 23

3rd & 13Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.58

Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 9 yds to the LSU 14

4th & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.88

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Lideatrick Griffin run for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 28

2nd & 7Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.71

Josh Williams run for 13 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST down

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the LSU 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the LSU 33

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.64

Logan Diggs run for 8 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the LSU 46

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.95

Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the LSU 47

3rd & 4Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.57

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 19 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.26

Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the MSST 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to John Emery Jr.

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.

4th & 8Field Goal Good+41 yds

Damian Ramos 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the MSST 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion Thomas

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MSST 34

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.85

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.71

Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 21 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the LSU 40

2nd & 9Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.68

Will Rogers sacked by Major Burns for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 43

3rd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.39

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the LSU 32

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Justin Robinson) to the LSU 37

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.68

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion Thomas

1st & 10Rush+38 ydsPPA +2.35

Jayden Daniels run for 23 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, Targeting (Shawn Preston Jr.) to the MSST 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Logan Diggs for 6 yds to the MSST 19

2nd & 4Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.60

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 20

3rd & 5Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.05

Jayden Daniels run for 9 yds to the MSST 11 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (Marcus Banks) to the MSST 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Jayden Daniels 5 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+35 yds

Nathan Dibert kickoff for 63 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 35 yds to the MSST 37

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Creed Whittemore

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Lideatrick Griffin run for 1 yd to the MSST 38

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion Thomas

4th & 9Punt+13 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 50 yds , Gregory Clayton Jr. returns for 13 yds to the LSU 25

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 9 yds to the LSU 34 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Will Campbell) to the LSU 24

1st & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.

2nd & 11Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.83

Kaleb Jackson run for 13 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the LSU 43

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Kaleb Jackson run for no gain to the LSU 43

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.01

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 6 yds to the MSST 44

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Kaleb Jackson run for 2 yds to the MSST 42

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.99

Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the MSST 31

2nd & 2Penalty-15 yds

LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Will Campbell) to the MSST 46

2nd & 17Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +4.51

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 45 yds to the MSST 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 24

2nd & 11Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.43

Will Rogers run for a loss of 5 yards to the MSST 19

3rd & 16Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.65

Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 22 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Freddie Roberson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'Quavious Marks

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the MSST 45

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Keelan Crimmins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the LSU 21

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Ka'Morreun Pimpton

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 42

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the LSU 49

2nd & 1Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.29

Lideatrick Griffin run for 14 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.02

Will Rogers pass complete to Seth Davis for 13 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Seth Davis

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Jeffery Pittman run for 6 yds to the LSU 16

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.39

Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the LSU 8

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 4 yds to the LSU 4

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.64

Mike Wright pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Noah Cain run for 9 yds to the LSU 34

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Kaleb Jackson run for 2 yds to the LSU 39

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Kaleb Jackson run for 2 yds to the LSU 41

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

LSU Penalty, False Start (DJ Chester) to the LSU 36

3rd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the LSU 39

Situational Analysis

LSU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
63%
30 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
20%
5 plays
0%
7 plays
67%
9 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
80%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
32%
19 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
20%
10 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
0%
5 plays
80%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays