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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Washington by 7.4

Home Win Probability

Michigan State 29%

Market (Bovada)

Michigan State +15

Edge: Michigan State +15 (7.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
WashingtonWashington
14216041
Michigan StateMichigan State
00077

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-140-210-280-380-417-41
Michigan StateWashington

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSWASMSWASMSWASMSWASMSWASMSWASMSWASMSWASMSWASMSWASMSWASMSWASPUNT68ydTD455ydPUNT37ydPUNT722ydTO318ydTD344ydPUNT1034ydTD395ydPUNT3-3ydTD448ydPUNT634ydPUNT744ydDOWNS756ydTD566ydEND19ydFG866ydPUNT69ydFG1172ydPUNT34ydDOWNS938ydPUNT3-2ydTO359ydTD1199ydEND1064yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Washington and Michigan State
StatisticWashingtonMichigan State
Passing29-3914-35
Pass Yards536208
Rush Yards17753
Total Yards713261
Turnovers11
3rd Down3-106-16
Penalties11-11011-83
Possession35:3224:28

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Washington
passing
Michael Penix Jr.
27/35, 473 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Tybo Rogers
15 CAR, 74 YDS
receiving
Rome Odunze
8 REC, 180 YDS
defense
Michigan State
passing
Noah Kim
12/31, 136 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Nathan Carter
17 CAR, 48 YDS
receiving
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.88

Nathan Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 26

2nd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 9 yds to the MSU 35

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.32

Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.19

Noah Kim sacked by Zion Tupuola-Fetui for a loss of 9 yards to the MSU 30

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Noah Kim pass incomplete

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 19Penalty-5 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (-5 Yards) to the MSU 25

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 30 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +1.71

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 39 yds to the MSU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MSU 7

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.01

Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Germie Bernard run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the MSU 32

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSU 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 5 yds to the MSU 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 52 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 9 yds to the WASH 26

2nd & 1Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.08

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 7 yds to the WASH 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the WASH 39

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.67

Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the WASH 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

PENIX JR., Michael pass short to the right complete for 21 yards to JOHNSON, Dillon caught at the UW45 and advanced to the MSU35 (BRULE, Aaron). PENALTY UW Holding on FAUTANU, Troy enforced 10 yards from the UW44 to the UW34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Will Nixon run for 4 yds to the WASH 38

2nd & 16Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.12

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 11 yds to the WASH 49

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

Washington Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WASH 44

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 10Penalty-5 yds

Washington Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jabbar Muhammad) to the WASH 39

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Jack McCallister punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

KIM, Noah pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GLOVER, Jaron thrown to the UW40. PENALTY UW Pass Interference on JACKSON, Elijah enforced 15 yards to the MSU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 44

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Noah Kim pass incomplete

3rd & 7Interception0 ydsPPA -0.87

Noah Kim pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +1.36

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 38 yds to the MSU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Germie Bernard run for 1 yd to the MSU 5

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 5 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.10

Noah Kim pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 16 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MSU 44

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.77

Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 11 yds to the WASH 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the WASH 36

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Noah Kim pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.56

Noah Kim run for 2 yds to the WASH 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Noah Kim pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.17

Noah Kim sacked by Zion Tupuola-Fetui for a loss of 7 yards to the WASH 41

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 36 yds, downed at the WASH 5

1st & 10Pass Reception+50 ydsPPA +3.44

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 50 yds to the MSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.66

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 15 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.81

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 30 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the MSU 16

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Noah Kim run for 5 yds to the MSU 21

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

KIM, Noah pass short to the right complete for 11 yards to MOSLEY, Tre caught at the MSU26 and advanced to the MSU32 (FOWLER, Drew), out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MSU21 to the MSU16. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 9Penalty0 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Alante Brown) to the MSU 8

3rd & 17Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.00

Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the MSU 12

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.81

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 16 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.25

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 12 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 7 yds to the MSU 13

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.30

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 13 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Grady Gross kickoff for 61 yds , return for no gain to the MSU 12

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the MSU 18

3rd & 4Penalty+15 yds

Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (Ralen Goforth) to the MSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Noah Kim pass complete to Nathan Carter for 2 yds to the MSU 46

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jalen McMillan at the WASH 19

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

PENIX JR., Michael pass to the left incomplete intended for ODUNZE, Rome thrown to the UW30; QB hurried by BARROW, Simeon. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on GROSE, Angelo enforced 15 yards to the UW34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-15 yds

Washington Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ja'Lynn Polk) to the WASH 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.18

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 24 yds to the MSU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.23

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 27 yds Washington Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jalen McMillan) to the MSU 36

1st & 19Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 4 yds to the MSU 32

2nd & 15Penalty-5 yds

Washington Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSU 37

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Jack McCallister punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 10

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.45

Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 20 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.50

Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 30 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 6 yds to the WASH 34

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Noah Kim pass incomplete

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WASH 39

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 9Penalty+5 yds

KIM, Noah pass short to the right incomplete intended for FRANKLIN, Jaylan thrown to the UW35; QB hurried by TRICE, Bralen. PENALTY UW Offsides on TUPUOLA-FETUI, Zion enforced 5 yards from the UW39 to the UW34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.22

Noah Kim pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Jalen McMillan run for 2 yds to the WASH 36

2nd & 8Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.14

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 34 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.18

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 23 yds to the MSU 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 7 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the MSU 34

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the WASH 30

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.19

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 14 yds to the WASH 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 7 yds to the MSU 49

2nd & 3Rush+45 ydsPPA +2.01

Dillon Johnson run for 45 yds to the MSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MSU 2

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.63

Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 yds

Grady Gross 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.32

Nathan Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 33

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Noah Kim pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.92

Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 14 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSU 42

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 44

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Noah Kim pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Rome Odunze at the WASH 16

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Tybo Rogers run for 5 yds to the WASH 21

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Tybo Rogers run for 4 yds to the WASH 25

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -0.66

run for a loss of 4 yards to the WASH 21 fumbled, recovered by WASH Michael Penix Jr.

4th & 5Penalty+5 yds

MCCALLISTER, Jack punt 53 yards to the MSU26, HENRY, Tyrell returned 12 yards to the MSU38 (BRUENER, Carson;GREEN, Jaden), clock 06:54. PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UW21 to the UW26 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.25

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 14 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 5 yds to the WASH 45

3rd & 5Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.25

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 39 yds to the MSU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 7 yds to the MSU 9

3rd & 3Penalty-15 yds

Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MSU 24

3rd & 18Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.11

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 12 yds to the MSU 12

4th & 6Field Goal Good+29 yds

Grady Gross 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 44 yds, downed at the WASH 27

2nd & 2Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.14

Tybo Rogers run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Tybo Rogers run for 2 yds to the MSU 48

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Tybo Rogers run for 3 yds to the MSU 45

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.74

Dylan Morris pass complete to Mason Wheeler for 6 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.95

Tybo Rogers run for 8 yds to the WASH 35

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.02

Tybo Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 40

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Tybo Rogers run for no gain to the MSU 40

3rd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Tybo Rogers run for 5 yds to the MSU 35

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.87

Dylan Morris pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.76

Nathan Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 33

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Tybo Rogers run for 2 yds to the WASH 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception+57 ydsPPA +4.12

Dylan Morris pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 57 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.37

Dylan Morris pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the MSU 6

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 10

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.26

Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the MSU 21

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 22

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.68

Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+61 ydsPPA +3.47

Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 61 yds to the WASH 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.37

Alante Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 14

2nd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.44

Katin Houser pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 11 yds to the WASH 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Nathan Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Katin Houser run for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Tybo Rogers run for 15 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.40

Richard Newton run for 17 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Richard Newton run for 3 yds to the MSU 40

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -1.02

Richard Newton run for no gain to the MSU 40

3rd & 7Penalty+5 yds

MORRIS, Dylan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WHEELER, Mason thrown to the MSU9; QB hurried by HANSEN, Maverick. PENALTY MSU Offsides on NELSON, Ben enforced 5 yards from the MSU40 to the MSU35 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Tybo Rogers run for 1 yd to the MSU 34

4th & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.61

Tybo Rogers run for 6 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Tybo Rogers run for 7 yds to the MSU 21

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Tybo Rogers run for 2 yds to the MSU 19

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.22

Richard Newton run for 9 yds to the MSU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

[SG] Kneel down by UW at MSU11 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Washington

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
64%
33 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
71%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
75%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
32%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
55%
11 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
0%
1 play
20%
5 plays
20%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play