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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Tennessee by 10.3

Home Win Probability

Florida 24%

Market (Bovada)

Florida +5

Edge: Tennessee -5 (5.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
TennesseeTennessee
703616
FloridaFlorida
6200329

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014286-712-726-726-1029-1029-16
FloridaTennessee

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20FLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENMISS1446ydTD671ydTD475ydPUNT519ydTD1482ydTO2-2ydTD39ydPUNT3-5ydTD755ydPUNT624ydEND1-1ydFG1446ydPUNT38ydDOWNS860ydPUNT36ydDOWNS818ydFG946ydTD575ydPUNT618ydDOWNS742ydDOWNS55ydUncategorized1-5yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Tennessee and Florida
StatisticTennesseeFlorida
Passing20-3419-24
Pass Yards287166
Rush Yards100183
Total Yards387349
Turnovers10
3rd Down8-157-14
Penalties10-795-30
Possession22:3237:28

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Tennessee
passing
Joe Milton
20/34, 287 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jaylen Wright
16 CAR, 63 YDS
receiving
Bru McCoy
5 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Florida
passing
Graham Mertz
19/24, 166 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Trevor Etienne
23 CAR, 172 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Eugene Wilson
6 REC, 44 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FLA 20

1st & 15Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 5 yds to the FLA 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.54

Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 10 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.16

Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 12 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 7 yds to the TENN 44

3rd & 1Penalty-10 yds

Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FLA 46

3rd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +3.02

Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 11 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the TENN 38

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the TENN 38

3rd & 5Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.50

Trevor Etienne run for 12 yds to the TENN 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the TENN 23

2nd & 7Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.31

Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 5 yards to the TENN 28

3rd & 12Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 29

4th & 13Blocked Field Goal+46 yds

Adam Mihalek 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Omari Thomas

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 3 yds to the TENN 32

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the TENN 35

3rd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.22

Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 11 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the TENN 48

2nd & 8Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +2.34

Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 41 yds to the FLA 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Ramel Keyton 11 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Charles Campbell Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil Jackson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 5 yds to the FLA 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.78

Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 8 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+62 ydsPPA +4.95

Trevor Etienne 62 Yd Run (Adam Mihalek PAT blocked)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Joe Milton III run for 1 yd to the TENN 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.10

Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 16 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TENN 37

1st & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 6 yds to the TENN 43

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel Keyton

3rd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 1 yd to the TENN 44

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jackson Ross punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the FLA 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.80

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 12 yds to the FLA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 5 yds to the FLA 35

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 35

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.85

Graham Mertz run for 6 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.17

Graham Mertz sacked by Bryson Eason for a loss of 7 yards to the FLA 34

2nd & 17Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 5 yds to the FLA 39

3rd & 12Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.46

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 18 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the TENN 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 8 yds to the TENN 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.27

Trevor Etienne run for 15 yds to the TENN 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the TENN 14

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the TENN 13

3rd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.33

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds to the TENN 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Montrell Johnson Jr. 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Ollie Lane) to the TENN 20

1st & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 3 yds to the TENN 23

2nd & 12Pass Interception Return+30 ydsPPA -0.04

Joe Milton III pass intercepted, Devin Moore return for 39 yds to the TENN 18, Tennessee Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-9 Yards) to the TENN 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the TENN 7

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 6 yds Jonathan Odom fumbled, recovered by FLA Jonathan Odom

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Graham Mertz 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Tennessee Penalty, False Start (John Campbell Jr.) to the TENN 20

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the TENN 23

2nd & 12Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.40

Joe Milton III sacked by Tyreak Sapp for a loss of 8 yards to the TENN 15

3rd & 20Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the TENN 20

4th & 15Punt+6 yds

Jackson Ross punt for 41 yds , Ricky Pearsall returns for 6 yds to the FLA 45

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.98

Trevor Etienne run for 13 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.67

Trevor Etienne run for 8 yds to the TENN 34

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the TENN 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the TENN 26

2nd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.17

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 8 yds to the TENN 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky Pearsall

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.94

Montrell Johnson Jr. 18 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Joe Milton III pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Jaylen Wright run for 8 yds to the TENN 33

3rd & 2Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.02

Jaylen Wright run for 12 yds to the TENN 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.43

Jaylen Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 49

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel Keyton

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jackson Ross punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the FLA 10

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.40

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 9

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.28

Joe Milton III run for a loss of 4 yards to the TENN 26 Joe Milton III fumbled, recovered by TENN Joe Milton III

2nd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the TENN 29

3rd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.32

Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 11 yds to the TENN 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the TENN 43

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Jaylen Wright run for 6 yds to the TENN 49

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.05

Bru McCoy run for 2 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.62

Jaylen Wright run for 10 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the FLA 38

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Joe Milton III run for 5 yds to the FLA 33

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FLA 38

3rd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.00

Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 11 yds to the FLA 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the FLA 24

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Joe Milton III pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoy

4th & 7Field Goal Good+42 yds

Charles Campbell 42 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky Pearsall

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.23

Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 8 yds to the FLA 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 21

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.72

Jaylen Wright run for 10 yds to the TENN 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the TENN 31

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Dont'e Thornton Jr.

3rd & 10Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +4.27

Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 43 yds to the FLA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the FLA 25

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 6 yds to the FLA 19

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the FLA 17

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -3.79

Jaylen Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 19

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the FLA 19

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the FLA 25

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky Pearsall

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 38

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ollie Lane) to the TENN 28

1st & 20Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 4 yds to the TENN 32

2nd & 16Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.37

Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 8 yds to the TENN 40

3rd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.80

Joe Milton III run for 12 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the FLA 46

2nd & 13Pass Reception-14 ydsPPA -1.85

Joe Milton III pass complete to Jabari Small for 1 yd to the 50 yard line Tennessee Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the TENN 35

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TENN 49

2nd & 27Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.11

Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the TENN 42

3rd & 20Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.09

Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 14 yds to the FLA 44

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jabari Small

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Treyaun Webb run for 1 yd to the FLA 45

2nd & 9Penalty+15 yds

Tennessee Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the TENN 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.05

Treyaun Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 41

2nd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.45

Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 12 yds to the TENN 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the TENN 26

2nd & 7Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.76

Trevor Etienne run for 19 yds to the TENN 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the TENN 7

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.28

Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the TENN 7

3rd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.63

Graham Mertz run for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 10

4th & 10Field Goal Good+27 yds

Trey Smack 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the TENN 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoy

3rd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.18

Jabari Small run for 12 yds to the TENN 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Florida Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TENN 45

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.37

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel White

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+55 ydsPPA +4.65

Bru McCoy 55 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 27

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 31

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 34

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FLA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.62

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 36

2nd & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the FLA 42

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the FLA 43

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.59

Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.70

Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 11 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.44

Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 14 yds to the FLA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel White

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel Keyton

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel Keyton

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.36

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoy

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Trevor Etienne run for 19 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.93

Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 40

2nd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the FLA 40

3rd & 14Penalty-5 yds

Florida Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FLA 35

3rd & 19Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the FLA 38

4th & 16Rush-8 ydsPPA +0.24

TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 30

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.37

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the FLA 35

Situational Analysis

Tennessee

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
33%
21 plays
25%
4 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
50%
12 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
57%
7 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
32%
28 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
4 plays
62%
13 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
60%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play