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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Duke by 24.3

Home Win Probability

Duke 94%

Market (Bovada)

Duke -17

Edge: Duke -17 (7.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NorthwesternNorthwestern
070714
DukeDuke
71014738

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-017-724-731-738-14
DukeNorthwestern

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NORDUKNORDUKNORDUKNORDUKNORDUKDUKNORDUKNORDUKNORDUKNORDUKPUNT39ydTD656ydPUNT511ydDOWNS522ydPUNT67ydTD889ydPUNT36ydFG756ydTD1573ydEND415ydTD980ydPUNT523ydTD1294ydDOWNS1363ydPUNT419ydDOWNS718ydTD426ydTD1371ydEND230yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northwestern and Duke
StatisticNorthwesternDuke
Passing22-4015-20
Pass Yards163219
Rush Yards104268
Total Yards267487
Turnovers10
3rd Down9-185-9
Penalties1-81-15
Possession28:5431:06

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northwestern
passing
Ben Bryant
17/34, 123 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Cam Porter
10 CAR, 49 YDS
receiving
Cam Johnson
5 REC, 45 YDS
defense
Duke
passing
Riley Leonard
15/20, 219 YDS
rushing
Riley Leonard
13 CAR, 97 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jalon Calhoun
5 REC, 112 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

A.J. Henning run for 9 yds to the NU 34

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.28

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ben Bryant run for no gain to the NU 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 22 yds, downed at the DUKE 44

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the NU 47

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.23

Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the NU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 4 yds to the NU 36

2nd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.60

Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 12 yds to the NU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

Jordan Waters run for 24 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the NU 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.04

Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 7 yds to the NU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.63

Joseph Himon II run for no gain to the NU 36

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 29 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 13 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the NU 45

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.44

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 46

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the NU 43

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.76

Riley Leonard run for no gain to the NU 43

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 45

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.75

Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 11 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the DUKE 40

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.48

Ben Bryant run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 42

3rd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.98

Ben Bryant sacked by Kendall Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard line

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 39 yds, downed at the DUKE 11

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.76

Jaquez Moore run for 15 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.15

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 13 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.31

Jaquez Moore run for 15 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +1.01

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 34 yds to the NU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the NU 7

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.52

Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the NU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Jordan Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the NU 36

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 37

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the DUKE 31

2nd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.69

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 13 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +1.71

Riley Leonard run for 33 yds to the NU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the NU 22

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.65

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 23

3rd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the NU 17

4th & 4Field Goal Good+35 yds

Todd Pelino 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

A.J. Henning run for 5 yds to the NU 32

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Joseph Himon II run for 1 yd to the NU 33

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.95

Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 9 yds to the NU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the NU 47

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.28

A.J. Henning run for 3 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.77

Ben Bryant pass complete to Marshall Lang for 8 yds to the DUKE 39

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Joseph Himon II run for 3 yds to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jack Lausch run for 4 yds to the DUKE 32

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Joseph Himon II run for 6 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 5 yds to the DUKE 21

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.75

Cam Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 23

3rd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 9 yds to the DUKE 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Jack Lausch run for no gain to the DUKE 14

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.86

Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 14 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.17

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.36

Riley Leonard sacked by Anto Saka for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 48

3rd & 12Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.92

Henry Belin IV sacked by Xander Mueller and Richie Hagarty for a loss of 7 yards to the DUKE 41

0th & 12End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 5 yds to the DUKE 25

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the DUKE 29

3rd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.96

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the DUKE 40

2nd & 3Penalty+20 yds

Northwestern Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (20 Yards) to the NU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.37

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 10 yds to the NU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the NU 28

2nd & 8Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.65

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 25 yds to the NU 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Riley Leonard run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +2.94

Cam Porter run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.58

Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for a loss of 2 yards to the NU 48

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 6

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.46

Riley Leonard run for 13 yds to the DUKE 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the DUKE 23

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.25

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 28 yds to the NU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.72

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 10 yds to the NU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.52

Jaquez Moore run for 19 yds to the NU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.67

Riley Leonard run for 12 yds to the NU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the NU 3

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the NU 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Riley Leonard run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.20

Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 13 yds to the NU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Porter for 2 yds to the NU 43

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

3rd & 8Penalty+15 yds

Duke Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Al Blades Jr.) to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 2 yds to the DUKE 40

4th & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.99

Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 9 yds to the DUKE 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.32

Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 20 yds to the DUKE 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Porter for 2 yds to the DUKE 9

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.66

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.61

Jordan Waters run for 14 yds to the DUKE 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the DUKE 26

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 27

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the DUKE 28

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 53 yds , returns for no gain to the NU 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 2 yds to the NU 10

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 7 yds to the NU 17

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.39

Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Ben Bryant run for 3 yds to the NU 22

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 5 yds to the NU 27

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

4th & 2Interception0 ydsPPA +0.05

Ben Bryant pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the NU 21

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the NU 18

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.24

Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the NU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Peyton Jones run for 15 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.31

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Caleb Komolafe for 14 yds to the NU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Caleb Komolafe for 9 yds to the DUKE 48

2nd & 1Sack-3 ydsPPA -2.13

Brendan Sullivan sacked by Aaron Hall and Michael Reese for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 49

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.84

Brendan Sullivan run for 6 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Caleb Komolafe for 3 yds to the DUKE 42

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Lawson Albright for 6 yds to the DUKE 36

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.62

Joseph Himon II run for 4 yds to the DUKE 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.53

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 8 yds to the DUKE 24

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd to the DUKE 23

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.26

Joseph Himon II run for 5 yds to the DUKE 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Brendan Sullivan run for 8 yds to the DUKE 10

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.64

Brendan Sullivan run for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.73

Travis Bates run for 32 yds to the NU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

(00:40) Kneel down by DU at NU45 (team loss of 2).

Situational Analysis

Northwestern

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
46%
26 plays
2nd
0%
5 plays
29%
7 plays
50%
10 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
71%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays

Duke

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
65%
31 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
57%
7 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play