Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 10, 2023Week 2

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 9.8

Home Win Probability

Sam Houston 24%

Market (Bovada)

Sam Houston +12.5

Edge: Sam Houston +12.5 (2.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 10, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
0301013
Sam HoustonSam Houston
00303

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40140-33-33-63-13
Sam HoustonAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SHAFSHAFSHAFSHAFSHAFSHAFAFSHAFSHAFSHAFPUNT37ydPUNT37ydPUNT821ydPUNT34ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT61ydFG947ydPUNT33ydPUNT511ydPUNT38ydEND618ydTO437ydFG1333ydFG1345ydPUNT3-4ydTD1160ydPUNT33ydDOWNS726yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Sam Houston
StatisticAir ForceSam Houston
Passing1-38-14
Pass Yards1444
Rush Yards24436
Total Yards25880
Turnovers10
3rd Down5-133-13
Penalties2-202-25
Possession36:3823:22

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Zachary Larrier
1/3, 14 YDS
rushing
Owen Burk
18 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
defense
Sam Houston
passing
Keegan Shoemaker
8/14, 44 YDS
rushing
Zach Hrbacek
10 CAR, 29 YDS
receiving
Ife Adeyi
3 REC, 20 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Zach Hrbacek run for 3 yds to the SHSU 19

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

run for 4 yds to the SHSU 23

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Keegan Shoemaker run for no gain to the SHSU 23

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Sam Houston Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.79

John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 46 fumbled, recovered by AFA John Lee Eldridge III

3rd & 12Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.79

Zac Larrier sacked by Chris Scott for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 40

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 41 yds, downed at the SHSU 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 7 yds to the SHSU 26

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 28

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.75

run for 2 yds to the SHSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Keegan Shoemaker run for 8 yds to the SHSU 38

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.04

John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 40

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Jadon Cardell punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the AFA 21

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 23

3rd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.22

Zac Larrier run for no gain to the AFA 23

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Noah Smith at the SHSU 38

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Zach Hrbacek run for 2 yds to the SHSU 40

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Zach Hrbacek for 5 yds to the SHSU 45

3rd & 3Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.66

Keegan Shoemaker sacked by PJ Ramsey for a loss of 9 yards to the SHSU 36

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jadon Cardell punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the AFA 30

2nd & 9Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.76

Zac Larrier sacked by Kavian Gaither for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 25

3rd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Noah Smith at the SHSU 30

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Keegan Shoemaker run for 9 yds to the SHSU 39

2nd & 1Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.39

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for no gain to the SHSU 39

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.17

Charles Crawford III run for 3 yds to the SHSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Zach Hrbacek run for 2 yds to the SHSU 44

3rd & 8Sack-13 ydsPPA -1.12

Keegan Shoemaker sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 13 yards to the SHSU 31

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Jadon Cardell punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.67

Aiden Calvert run for 18 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the SHSU 48

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.40

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SHSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Zac Larrier run for 9 yds to the SHSU 35

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the SHSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the SHSU 30

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the SHSU 29

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the SHSU 25

4th & 2Field Goal Good+42 yds

Matthew Dapore 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jadon Cardell punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.03

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Zac Larrier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.10

John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 38

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Zac Larrier pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Noah Smith at the SHSU 10

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Zach Hrbacek run for 2 yds to the SHSU 12

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Zach Hrbacek run for 4 yds to the SHSU 16

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.13

Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 18

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jadon Cardell punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.07

Zac Larrier run for 12 yds to the SHSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the SHSU 42

2nd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.45

Zac Larrier run for 9 yds to the SHSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

QB Keeper LARRIER, Zac rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the SAM30 (ARMSTEAD, Da'Veawn). PENALTY AFA Holding on RILLOS, Caleb enforced 10 yards from the SAM33 to the SAM43. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Penalty-10 yds

LARRIER, Zac pass to the right complete for 1 yard to MICHEL, Emmanuel caught at the SAM46 and advanced to the SAM42 (DOWNES, Isaiah). PENALTY AFA Illegal Block in the Back on RILLOS, Caleb enforced 10 yards from the SAM43 to the AFA47. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 30Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 49

2nd & 28Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SHSU 47

3rd & 24Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the SHSU 42

0th & 24End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the AFA 28 Zac Larrier fumbled, recovered by AFA Jared Roznos

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.32

Zac Larrier pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for 14 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+22 ydsPPA -2.24

Emmanuel Michel run for 22 yds to the SHSU 38 Emmanuel Michel fumbled, recovered by SHSU Dakerric Hobbs

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Zach Hrbacek run for 9 yds to the SHSU 47

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Zach Hrbacek run for 2 yds to the SHSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the AFA 49

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Zach Hrbacek run for 3 yds to the AFA 46

3rd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.88

Keegan Shoemaker run for 8 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.47

Keegan Shoemaker sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 46

2nd & 18Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Zach Hrbacek for 7 yds to the AFA 39

3rd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.14

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 10 yds to the AFA 29

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.20

run for 2 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

ADEYI, Ife rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the AFA23 (GAILLARD, JR., Jerome), out of bounds. PENALTY SAM Holding on GENTRY, John enforced 10 yards from the AFA27 to the AFA37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Charles Crawford III run for no gain to the AFA 37

2nd & 20Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.49

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 13 yds to the AFA 24

3rd & 7Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.82

Keegan Shoemaker run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 29

4th & 12Field Goal Good+45 yds

Colby Sessums 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Owen Burk run for 5 yds to the AFA 35

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the AFA 39

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.27

Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the SHSU 49

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.25

Jet Harris run for 3 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the SHSU 44

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the SHSU 40

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.36

Owen Burk run for 7 yds to the SHSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Owen Burk run for no gain to the SHSU 33

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the SHSU 29

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the SHSU 25

4th & 2Field Goal Good+42 yds

Matthew Dapore 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Zach Hrbacek run for 2 yds to the SHSU 22

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 24

3rd & 6Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.38

Keegan Shoemaker sacked by Payton Zdroik for a loss of 8 yards to the SHSU 16

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 40

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Zac Larrier run for 7 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.29

Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the SHSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the SHSU 45

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the SHSU 40

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.66

Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the SHSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the SHSU 36

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.61

Dylan Carson run for 7 yds to the SHSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.20

Zac Larrier run for 11 yds to the SHSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the SHSU 16

2nd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.90

John Lee Eldridge III run for 11 yds to the SHSU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Owen Burk run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Zach Hrbacek run for no gain to the SHSU 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 3 yds to the SHSU 23

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jadon Cardell punt for 53 yds, downed at the AFA 24

4th & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Kneel down by LARRIER, Zac at SAM50 (team loss of 2); AFA turnover on downs, clock 03:37.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Owen Burk run for 9 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Owen Burk run for 10 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 49

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the SHSU 46

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Kneel down by LARRIER, Zac at SAM48 (team loss of 2).

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
40%
25 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
27%
11 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
75%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
100%
1 play
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Sam Houston

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
29%
14 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
13%
8 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play