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← Back to GamesSep 3, 2023Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Florida State by 1.3

Home Win Probability

Florida State 52%

Market (consensus)

Florida State +2.5

Edge: Florida State +2.5 (3.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 3, 2023

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LSULSU
7100724
Florida StateFlorida State
77102145

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-07-714-1417-1724-1731-1738-1745-24
Florida StateLSU

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LSUFSLSUFSLSUFSFSLSUFSLSUFSLSUFSLSUFSLSUFSLSUFSLSUFSLSUFSDOWNS861ydTD986ydTD975ydPUNT39ydDOWNS770ydTO617ydTO10ydPUNT38ydPUNT36ydTD551ydTD1075ydEND1067ydFG960ydPUNT636ydTD787ydTO625ydTD857ydPUNT3-4ydTD357ydDOWNS740ydTD654ydTD175ydEND2-4yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing LSU and Florida State
StatisticLSUFlorida State
Passing22-3724-32
Pass Yards346359
Rush Yards113135
Total Yards459494
Turnovers21
3rd Down3-109-14
Penalties2-307-64
Possession24:3735:23

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

LSU
passing
Jayden Daniels
22/37, 346 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jayden Daniels
15 CAR, 64 YDS
receiving
Brian Thomas Jr.
7 REC, 142 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Florida State
passing
Jordan Travis
23/31, 342 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Trey Benson
12 CAR, 47 YDS
receiving
Keon Coleman
9 REC, 122 YDS, 3 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+55 ydsPPA +3.46

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Tre Bradford for 55 yds to the FSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.73

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 15 yds to the FSU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Tre Bradford run for 1 yd to the FSU 4

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the FSU 3 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Patrick Payton) to the FSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Josh Williams run for no gain to the FSU 1

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik Nabers

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik Nabers

4th & 1Sack-13 ydsPPA -4.21

Jayden Daniels sacked by DJ Lundy for a loss of 13 yards to the FSU 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 5 yds to the FSU 19

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon Coleman

3rd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.44

Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 12 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 33

2nd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.99

Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 13 yds to the FSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Travis, Jordan pass incomplete to Coleman, Keon, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Wilson, Johnny) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST31, NO PLAY.

1st & 25Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.94

Trey Benson run for 12 yds to the FSU 43

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Destyn Hill

3rd & 13Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.50

Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 17 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +3.19

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 40 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the LSU 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the LSU 37

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the LSU 39

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.77

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 13 yds to the FSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.75

Jayden Daniels run for 14 yds to the FSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Josh Williams

2nd & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.66

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 33 yds to the FSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Tre Bradford run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny Wilson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 7 yds to the FSU 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the FSU 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 15

1st & 10Penalty+7 yds

Daniels, Jayden pass incomplete to Smith, Maason, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Green, Renardo) 7 yards to the LSU22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.90

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 7 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Personal Foul (Kevin Knowles II) to the LSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 1 yd to the LSU 45

2nd & 9Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.65

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 18 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the FSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the FSU 19

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik Nabers

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the FSU 13

4th & 1Sack-2 ydsPPA -3.94

Jayden Daniels sacked by Shyheim Brown and Kalen DeLoach for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Jordan Travis pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 3 yds to the FSU 18

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FSU 20

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.17

Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 8 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the FSU 31

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 32

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny Wilson

4th & 7Punt-3 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds , Aaron Anderson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 22 Aaron Anderson fumbled, recovered by FSU Azareye'h Thomas

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+2 ydsPPA -4.35

Jordan Travis pass intercepted Duce Chestnut return for 2 yds to the LSU 26

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the LSU 34

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 65 yds, downed at the FSU 1

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 2

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 5 yds to the FSU 7

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon Coleman

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 49

1st & 10Rush+40 ydsPPA +1.40

Jayden Daniels run for 40 yds to the FSU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 8 yds to the FSU 3

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.14

Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the FSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Noah Cain run for no gain to the FSU 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Noah Cain run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 21

2nd & 14Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.25

Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the FSU 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.08

Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 22 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Florida State Penalty, False Start (Maurice Smith) to the FSU 46

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jaheim Bell

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FSU 49

3rd & 12Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.35

Jordan Travis pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 18 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Jordan Travis pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 7 yds to the LSU 26

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the LSU 24

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.25

Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 21 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald kickoff for 64 yds , Aaron Anderson return for 13 yds to the LSU 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.58

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 11 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik Nabers

3rd & 10Rush+35 ydsPPA +3.94

Josh Williams run for 35 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the FSU 37

2nd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.85

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 18 yds to the FSU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik Nabers

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik Nabers

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Josh Williams

4th & 10Field Goal Good+36 yds

Damian Ramos 36 yd FG GOOD

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Travis, Jordan pass incomplete to Wilson, Johnny, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Chestnut, Duce) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Lawrance Toafili run for 8 yds to the FSU 48

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.05

Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the LSU 45

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the LSU 39

3rd & 1Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.07

Deuce Spann pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 17 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the LSU 19

2nd & 7Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.27

Trey Benson run for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 25

3rd & 13Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.76

Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 10 yds to the LSU 15

4th & 3Field Goal Good+33 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald 33 yd FG GOOD

4th & 3Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald kickoff for 65 yds , Aaron Anderson return for 17 yds to the LSU 17

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.02

Jayden Daniels run for 15 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 9 yds to the LSU 41

2nd & 1Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.22

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 8 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Tre Bradford run for 4 yds to the FSU 47

2nd & 6Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.15

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for no gain to the FSU 47

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 13

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.56

Rodney Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 9

2nd & 14Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +3.42

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 41 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Rodney Hill run for 7 yds to the LSU 43

2nd & 3Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.13

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for no gain to the LSU 43

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the LSU 42

4th & 2Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +4.35

Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 41 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+9 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald kickoff for 51 yds , Aaron Anderson return for 9 yds to the LSU 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.06

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 13 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.60

Jayden Daniels sacked by Dennis Briggs Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 32

2nd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 35

3rd & 11Penalty+5 yds

Florida State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Patrick Payton) to the LSU 40

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.30

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 8 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.85

Jayden Daniels pass intercepted Renardo Green return for no gain to the FSU 43

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.11

Trey Benson run for 14 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the LSU 39

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.45

Trey Benson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 41

3rd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.14

Jordan Travis run for 13 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the LSU 22

2nd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.14

Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 13 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the LSU 7

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Tre Bradford run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 20

2nd & 15Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.23

Jayden Daniels sacked by Joshua Farmer for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 13

3rd & 22Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.03

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the LSU 21

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds, downed at the FSU 43

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.05

Trey Benson run for 13 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jaheim Bell

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +4.38

Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 44 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

2nd & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald kickoff for 62 yds , Gregory Clayton Jr. return for 12 yds to the LSU 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.47

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 21 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the LSU 45

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the LSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the LSU 47

3rd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the FSU 48

4th & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.94

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 3 yds to the FSU 45

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.28

Rodney Hill run for 6 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Harold Perkins Jr.) to the LSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.33

Rodney Hill run for 17 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Deuce Spann run for 1 yd to the LSU 15

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Rodney Hill run for 3 yds to the LSU 12

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.25

Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Jaheim Bell run for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.08

Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 75 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Nathan Dibert on-side kick recovered by Florida State at the LSU 42 , Azareye'h Thomas return for no gain to the LSU 42

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.35

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 44

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.42

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 46

Situational Analysis

LSU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
48%
27 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
45%
11 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
80%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Florida State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
42%
26 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
60%
10 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play