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← Back to GamesSep 2, 2023Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Tennessee by 22.2

Home Win Probability

Tennessee 91%

Market (consensus)

Tennessee -28

Edge: Virginia +28 (5.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 2, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
VirginiaVirginia
037313
TennesseeTennessee
714141449

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-014-328-335-1049-1049-13
TennesseeVirginia

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TENVIRTENVIRTENVIRTENVIRVIRTENVIRTENVIRTENVIRVIRTENVIRTENVIRTENVIRTENVIRTENVIRTENVIRTENTD862ydPUNT35ydDOWNS49ydMISS718ydPUNT33ydPUNT3-12ydPUNT631ydTO3-9ydPUNT30ydPUNT512ydPUNT33ydTD1390ydFG652ydTD975ydEND1-2ydPUNT3-5ydTD1077ydDOWNS45ydTD630ydTD875ydPUNT36ydPUNT34ydTD627ydPUNT3-4ydTD740ydPUNT730ydPUNT39ydFG1047ydEND28yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Virginia and Tennessee
StatisticVirginiaTennessee
Passing11-2423-33
Pass Yards106212
Rush Yards95287
Total Yards201499
Turnovers01
3rd Down5-185-13
Penalties2-104-35
Possession32:5427:06

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Virginia
passing
Tony Muskett
9/17, 94 YDS
rushing
Perris Jones
7 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Malachi Fields
4 REC, 63 YDS
defense
Tennessee
passing
Joe Milton
21/30, 201 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Jaylen Wright
12 CAR, 115 YDS
receiving
Ramel Keyton
3 REC, 66 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+34 yds

Matt Ganyard kickoff for 61 yds , Dee Williams return for 34 yds to the TENN 38

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Jaylen Wright run for 7 yds to the TENN 45

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.48

Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 6 yds to the UVA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.00

Jaylen Wright run for 21 yds to the UVA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.22

Jaylen Wright run for 14 yds to the UVA 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the UVA 12

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Joe Milton III run for 2 yds to the UVA 10

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 1 yd to the UVA 9

4th & 5Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +3.17

Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 9 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malik Washington

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malachi Fields

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the UVA 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the TENN 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Joe Milton III pass complete to Jabari Small for 3 yds to the TENN 23

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the TENN 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Joe Milton III pass complete to Jabari Small for 4 yds to the TENN 29

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.05

Jabari Small run for no gain to the TENN 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 1 yd to the TENN 28

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.68

Perris Jones run for no gain to the TENN 28

3rd & 9Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.45

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 19 yds to the TENN 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the TENN 8

2nd & 8Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.48

Mike Hollins run for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 11

3rd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.49

Tony Muskett run for no gain to the TENN 11

4th & 0Field Goal Missed+28 yds

Will Bettridge 28 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel Keyton

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Joe Milton III run for 3 yds to the TENN 23

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoy

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jackson Ross punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 40

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malik Washington

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.04

Tony Muskett run for a loss of 5 yards to the TENN 45

3rd & 15Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.12

Tony Muskett sacked by James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the UVA 48

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the TENN 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 11 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 7 yds to the TENN 43

2nd & 3Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.25

Joe Milton III run for 17 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Jaylen Wright run for 8 yds to the UVA 32

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Dont'e Thornton Jr.

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UVA 37

3rd & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.23

Joe Milton III sacked by Olasunkonmi Agunloye for a loss of 7 yards to the UVA 44

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Jackson Ross punt for 44 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.75

Tony Muskett run for a loss of 3 yards to the UVA 17

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Tony Muskett pass incomplete to JR Wilson

3rd & 13Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.10

Tony Muskett sacked by James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the UVA 11

4th & 19Punt+19 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 39 yds , Dee Williams returns for 19 yds to the UVA 31 Dee Williams fumbled, recovered by UVA Olasunkonmi Agunloye

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the UVA 36

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UVA 37

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Virginia Penalty, False Start (Sackett Wood Jr.) to the UVA 32

3rd & 9Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.31

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 31

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 62 yds, downed at the TENN 7

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the TENN 12

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the TENN 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel White

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoy

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel Keyton

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jackson Ross punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 46

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Tony Muskett run for 3 yds to the TENN 43

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the TENN 38

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Mike Hollins run for no gain to the TENN 38

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

Virginia Penalty, False Start (Perris Jones) to the TENN 43

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 33 yds, downed at the TENN 10

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.58

Jabari Small run for 13 yds to the TENN 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.36

Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 16 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Ramel Keyton) to the TENN 34

1st & 15Penalty-10 yds

Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (John Campbell Jr.) to the TENN 24

1st & 25Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Joe Milton III run for 3 yds to the TENN 27

2nd & 22Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +4.32

Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 41 yds to the UVA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoy

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the UVA 29

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Joe Milton III pass complete to Jabari Small for 6 yds to the UVA 23

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.89

Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the UVA 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the UVA 16

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to McCallan Castles

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.78

Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 9 yds to the UVA 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Joe Milton III run for 4 yds to the UVA 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.27

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 30 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.38

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 17 yds to the TENN 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.81

Mike Hollins run for a loss of 5 yards to the TENN 23

2nd & 15Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Tony Muskett pass complete to Mike Hollins for 2 yds to the TENN 21

3rd & 13Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.42

Tony Muskett run for 8 yds to the TENN 13

4th & 5Field Goal Good+30 yds

Will Bettridge 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Jaylen Wright run for 12 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Joe Milton III run for 9 yds to the TENN 46

2nd & 1Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.49

Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 14 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.45

Jaylen Wright run for 13 yds to the UVA 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 7 yds to the UVA 20

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the UVA 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Jaylen Wright run for 9 yds to the UVA 8

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.02

Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the UVA 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Joe Milton III run for 1 yd for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 23

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malachi Fields

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Kobe Pace

3rd & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.45

Tony Muskett sacked by Tyler Baron for a loss of 5 yards to the UVA 30

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the TENN 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 2 yds to the TENN 25

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.38

Jaylen Wright run for 10 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.40

Jaylen Wright run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.90

Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 16 yds to the UVA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 1 yd to the UVA 33

2nd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.82

Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 13 yds to the UVA 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 5 yds to the UVA 15

2nd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.61

Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 14 yds to the UVA 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the UVA 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Joe Milton III run for 1 yd for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malik Washington

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the UVA 34

4th & 1Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.20

Tony Muskett run for a loss of 4 yards to the UVA 30

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the UVA 25

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.16

Jabari Small run for 8 yds to the UVA 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.70

Jabari Small run for 12 yds to the UVA 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jabari Small run for no gain to the UVA 5

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the UVA 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Perris Jones run for 11 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the UVA 38

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 41

3rd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.71

Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 15 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the TENN 42

2nd & 8Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.32

Kobe Pace run for 22 yds to the TENN 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the TENN 17

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.74

Perris Jones run for 17 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 5 yds to the TENN 30

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the TENN 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Dont'e Thornton Jr.

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Jackson Ross punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 28

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the UVA 30

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the UVA 32

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malachi Fields

4th & 6Punt+55 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 50 yds , Dee Williams returns for 55 yds to the UVA 27

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the UVA 21

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the UVA 19

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Dylan Sampson run for 7 yds to the UVA 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the UVA 12

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the UVA 11

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +3.06

Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 11 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)

3rd & 9Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Josh Turbyville kickoff for 65 yds , Demick Starling return for 21 yds to the UVA 21

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.84

Tony Muskett sacked by Tyler Baron for a loss of 4 yards to the UVA 17

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malik Washington

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi Fields

4th & 14Punt+31 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 54 yds , Dee Williams returns for 31 yds to the UVA 40

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the UVA 34

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.20

Nico Iamaleava run for 8 yds to the UVA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.16

Dylan Sampson run for 11 yds to the UVA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kaleb Webb

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 6 yds to the UVA 9

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.30

Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the UVA 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 11 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jack Griese run for 3 yds to the UVA 39

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Jack Griese run for 3 yds to the UVA 42

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.01

Anthony Colandrea run for 7 yds to the UVA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Jack Griese run for 2 yds to the TENN 49

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jack Griese run for 3 yds to the TENN 46

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Jack Griese run for 1 yd to the TENN 45

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the TENN 10

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Cameron Seldon run for 2 yds to the TENN 12

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.14

Cameron Seldon run for 2 yds to the TENN 14

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 5 yds to the TENN 19

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Jackson Ross punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UVA 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Amaad Foston for 1 yd to the UVA 32

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Amaad Foston run for 5 yds to the UVA 37

3rd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.19

Anthony Colandrea run for 10 yds to the UVA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Rickey Gibson III) to the TENN 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden Gibson

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Amaad Foston run for 8 yds to the TENN 30

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.56

Amaad Foston run for 5 yds to the TENN 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JR Wilson

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Jack Griese run for 3 yds to the TENN 22

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JR Wilson

4th & 7Field Goal Good+40 yds

Will Bettridge 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Khalifa Keith run for 6 yds to the TENN 31

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Khalifa Keith run for 2 yds to the TENN 33

Situational Analysis

Virginia

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
20%
25 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
31%
16 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
50%
6 plays
20%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Tennessee

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
69%
36 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
75%
8 plays
44%
9 plays
30%
10 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
100%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play