Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 1, 2023Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan State by 7.9

Home Win Probability

Michigan State 68%

Market (consensus)

Michigan State -15

Edge: Central Michigan +15 (7.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 1, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Central MichiganCentral Michigan
07007
Michigan StateMichigan State
01071431

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-010-717-731-7
Michigan StateCentral Michigan

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSCMMSCMMSCMMSCMMSCMMSCMMSCMMSCMMSCMMSCMMSCMMSCMMSCMDOWNS540ydDOWNS1557ydPUNT67ydPUNT64ydPUNT618ydPUNT37ydFG516ydPUNT39ydDOWNS645ydTD370ydTD784ydPUNT39ydEND413ydTO631ydPUNT622ydPUNT3-2ydTD545ydPUNT54ydTD382ydPUNT32ydTD555ydPUNT31ydPUNT429ydPUNT419ydPUNT3-10ydEND949yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Central Michigan and Michigan State
StatisticCentral MichiganMichigan State
Passing13-2518-33
Pass Yards96279
Rush Yards123127
Total Yards219406
Turnovers10
3rd Down3-165-13
Penalties7-758-66
Possession34:2625:34

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Central Michigan
passing
Bert Emanuel Jr.
11/17, 87 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Bert Emanuel Jr.
17 CAR, 41 YDS
receiving
Mitchel Collier
3 REC, 30 YDS
defense
Michigan State
passing
Noah Kim
18/31, 279 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Nathan Carter
18 CAR, 113 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jaron Glover
3 REC, 75 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+31 ydsPPA +2.65

Nathan Carter run for 31 yds to the CMU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the CMU 39

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Noah Kim pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 6Penalty+5 yds

Central Michigan Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the CMU 34

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -2.63

Nathan Carter run for no gain to the CMU 34

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the CMU 39

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.95

Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 6 yds to the CMU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.98

Myles Bailey run for 13 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.67

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Sam Hicks for 8 yds to the MSU 34

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.19

Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 4 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

B.J. Harris run for 2 yds to the MSU 28

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.52

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Tyson Davis for 10 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.71

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 13 yds to the MSU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.79

Jr. Bert Emanuel run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 8

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.27

Jr. Bert Emanuel run for no gain to the MSU 8

3rd & 8Penalty-10 yds

EMANUEL, JR., Bert scrambles to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the MSU6 (WINDMON, Jacoby), out of bounds. PENALTY CMU Holding on HEINZEN, Davis enforced 10 yards from the MSU8 to the MSU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 18Penalty0 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the MSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 4 yds to the MSU 5

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

B.J. Harris run for 2 yds to the MSU 3

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the MSU 2

4th & 2Sack-7 ydsPPA -4.15

Jr. Bert Emanuel sacked by Simeon Barrow Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 9

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.25

Jalen Berger run for 8 yds to the MSU 17

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.47

Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the MSU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.60

Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 18

2nd & 11Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.26

Noah Kim pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 16

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jr. Stephan Bracey at the CMU 32

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 34

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Chris Parker for 6 yds to the CMU 40

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.44

Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the CMU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-9 ydsPPA -2.52

Jr. Stephan Bracey run for a loss of 9 yards to the CMU 35

2nd & 19Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 1 yd to the CMU 36

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass incomplete

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 30

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Noah Kim run for 2 yds to the MSU 32

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 35

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.04

Noah Kim pass complete to Jalen Berger for 8 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.74

Jalen Berger run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 40

2nd & 13Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.66

Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the MSU 48

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Sam Hicks run for 4 yds to the CMU 16

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jr. Bert Emanuel run for no gain to the CMU 16

3rd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Sam Hicks for 3 yds to the CMU 19

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 27 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.88

Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 23 yds to the CMU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.63

Jalen Berger run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMU 25

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Noah Kim pass incomplete

3rd & 12Penalty-5 yds

Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CMU 30

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 17Field Goal Good+47 yds

Jonathan Kim 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 7 yds to the CMU 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

B.J. Harris run for 2 yds to the CMU 34

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass incomplete

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Central Michigan Penalty, Roughing the Passer on KOSTUS, Kade enforced (15 Yards) to the CMU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

Nathan Carter run for no gain to the CMU 39

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Nathan Carter run for 7 yds to the CMU 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the CMU 30

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -2.97

Nathan Carter run for no gain to the CMU 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.60

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Shatavious Hogan for 17 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+14 yds

LUKES, Marion rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the CMU49 (HALADAY, Cal;WRIGHT, Brandon). PENALTY MSU Face mask on WRIGHT, Brandon enforced 14 yards from the CMU47 to the MSU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty+14 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Face mask (14 yards) (14 Yards) to the MSU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Chris Parker 12 Yd pass from Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tristan Mattson Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.57

Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 10 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 7 yds to the MSU 33

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Noah Kim pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +3.44

Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 32 yds to the CMU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.45

Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 33 yds to the CMU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Nathan Carter run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 8 yds to the CMU 33

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 29 yds, downed at the MSU 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 2 yds to the MSU 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.86

Noah Kim pass complete to Jalen Berger for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Noah Kim pass incomplete

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Jr. Bert Emanuel run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 34

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.52

Marion Lukes run for no gain to the CMU 34

3rd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.63

Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 10 yds to the CMU 44

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

LUKES, Marion rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the CMU45 (HALADAY, Cal). PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Substitution on KIMBROUGH, Chester enforced 5 yards from the CMU44 to the CMU49 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.78

Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 12 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Jr. Stephan Bracey for 5 yds to the MSU 34

2nd & 5Interception0 ydsPPA -3.95

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 34

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Noah Kim pass complete to Jalen Berger for 5 yds to the MSU 39

3rd & 2Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.28

Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 14 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the CMU 44

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the CMU 42

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CMU 47

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 47 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.80

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Sam Hicks for a loss of 4 yards to the CMU 16

2nd & 14Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.12

B.J. Harris run for 7 yds to the CMU 23

3rd & 7Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.29

Jr. Bert Emanuel sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 5 yards to the CMU 18

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Noah Kim pass complete to Evan Morris for 4 yds to the CMU 41

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the CMU 37

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.81

Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

KIM, Noah pass deep to the left incomplete intended for GATES JR., Antonio broken up by JONES, Trey at the CMU6. PENALTY CMU Pass Interference on WILEY, La'Vario enforced 15 yards to the CMU18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Noah Kim pass complete to Jalen Berger for 6 yds to the CMU 12

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.41

Jalen Berger run for 12 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.13

Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 13 yds to the CMU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 46

2nd & 8Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.73

Jr. Bert Emanuel run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMU 41

3rd & 13Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.53

Jr. Bert Emanuel sacked by Jacoby Windmon for a loss of 6 yards to the CMU 35

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 53 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+72 ydsPPA +3.97

Noah Kim pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 72 yds to the CMU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Nathan Carter run for no gain to the CMU 10

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.80

Noah Kim pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 10 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the CMU 18

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.42

Myles Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMU 16

3rd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 6 yds to the CMU 22

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

Central Michigan Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jalen McGaughy) to the CMU 17

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.09

Noah Kim pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 15 yds to the CMU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +0.60

Noah Kim run for 7 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST down Central Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (De'Javion Stepney) to the CMU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Nathan Carter run for 7 yds to the CMU 11

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.04

Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the CMU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 8 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

B.J. Harris run for 2 yds to the CMU 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.25

B.J. Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 26

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+31 ydsPPA +2.47

Nathan Carter run for 31 yds to the CMU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Noah Kim) to the CMU 45

2nd & 19Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Nathan Carter run for 7 yds to the CMU 39

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jacques Bristol at the CMU 10

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.65

Jase Bauer run for 14 yds to the CMU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Sam Hicks run for 5 yds to the CMU 29

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 34

2nd & 11Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.89

Katin Houser sacked by Maurice White for a loss of 9 yards to the MSU 25

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jake Tafelski run for 5 yds to the CMU 41

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jake Tafelski run for 3 yds to the CMU 44

3rd & 2Penalty+15 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Malik Spencer) to the MSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jase Bauer pass complete to Jake Tafelski for no gain to the MSU 28

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.55

Jase Bauer pass complete to Kenny Brewer III for 9 yds to the MSU 19

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.17

Jake Tafelski run for 4 yds to the MSU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Jase Bauer pass incomplete

Situational Analysis

Central Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
50%
26 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
17%
6 plays
44%
9 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
41%
27 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
67%
9 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
0%
4 plays
4th
0%
2 plays