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← Back to GamesSep 2, 2023Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan by 20.3

Home Win Probability

Michigan 90%

Market (consensus)

Michigan -34.5

Edge: East Carolina +34.5 (14.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 2, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
East CarolinaEast Carolina
00033
MichiganMichigan
7167030

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-020-030-030-3
MichiganEast Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ECMICECMICECMICECMICECMICMICECMICECMICECMICECPUNT36ydPUNT30ydTO31ydTD857ydPUNT616ydTD790ydPUNT832ydTD776ydMISS1042ydFG634ydTD1275ydPUNT32ydDOWNS1279ydPUNT30ydMISS44ydDOWNS1153ydPUNT515ydFG1056yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing East Carolina and Michigan
StatisticEast CarolinaMichigan
Passing17-2926-31
Pass Yards132280
Rush Yards103122
Total Yards235402
Turnovers10
3rd Down5-136-10
Penalties10-885-35
Possession26:3433:26

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

East Carolina
passing
Mason Garcia
11/18, 80 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Mason Garcia
8 CAR, 36 YDS
receiving
Javious Bond
3 REC, 31 YDS
defense
Michigan
passing
J.J. McCarthy
26/30, 280 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Blake Corum
10 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Roman Wilson
6 REC, 78 YDS, 3 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Mason Garcia pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 5 yds to the ECU 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Shane Calhoun

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 67 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MICH 1

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.09

Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 1

3rd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.03

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 2

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Josh Murphy at the MICH 47

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the MICH 48

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Mason Garcia run for 2 yds to the MICH 46

3rd & 9Interception0 ydsPPA -1.49

Mason Garcia pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 3 yds to the MICH 46

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman Wilson

3rd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.88

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 16 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 2 yds to the ECU 36

2nd & 8Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.96

Blake Corum run for 21 yds to the ECU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 4 yds to the ECU 11

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the ECU 14

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +3.15

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 14 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for no gain to the ECU 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Mason Garcia pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 9 yds to the ECU 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Mason Garcia run for 3 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Jsi Hatfield

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECU 36

3rd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Mason Garcia run for 5 yds to the ECU 41

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 49 yds , Jake Thaw returns for no gain to the MICH 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.10

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 20 yds to the MICH 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 31

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 33

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.39

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 11 yds to the MICH 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

(00:15) No Huddle McCarthy,J.J. pass incomplete deep middle to Wilson,Roman PENALTY ECU Pass Interference (Wood,Julius) 15 yards from MICH44 to ECU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the ECU 39

2nd & 8Rush+37 ydsPPA +2.50

Blake Corum run for 37 yds to the ECU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Blake Corum run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Tommy Doman kickoff for 62 yds , Javious Bond return for 14 yds to the ECU 49 East Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the ECU 9

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 1 yd to the ECU 10

2nd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.96

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 14 yds to the ECU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Flinn,Alex pass incomplete deep left to Hatfield,Jsi PENALTY ECU Holding (Moorer,Parker) 10 yards from ECU24 to ECU14. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.36

Rahjai Harris run for 16 yds to the ECU 30

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Javious Bond run for 3 yds to the ECU 33

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.02

Alex Flinn run for 3 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Ryan King

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 5 yds to the ECU 41

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jhari Patterson

4th & 5Punt+6 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 41 yds , Jake Thaw returns for 6 yds to the MICH 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.00

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 12 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the MICH 36

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 35

3rd & 11Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +3.15

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 16 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.06

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 24 yds to the ECU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.19

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 15 yds to the ECU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 10 yds for a TD (James Turner PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Alex Flinn run for 3 yds to the ECU 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jarett Garner for 5 yds to the ECU 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.61

Alex Flinn pass complete to Javious Bond for 19 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the MICH 45

2nd & 7Penalty-6 yds

East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Brock Spalding) to the ECU 49

2nd & 13Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.76

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 8 yds to the MICH 43

3rd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.71

Alex Flinn run for 8 yds to the MICH 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Javious Bond run for 2 yds to the MICH 33

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Javious Bond

3rd & 8Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Alex Flinn pass complete to for 18 yds to the MICH 33

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+51 yds

Andrew Conrad 51 yd FG MISSED

1st & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 4 yds to the MICH 38

2nd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.23

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 9 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.85

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 12 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.86

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 9 yds to the ECU 32

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson

3rd & 1Field Goal Good+50 yds

James Turner 50 yd FG GOOD

0th & 1End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.87

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Max Bredeson for 14 yds to the MICH 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the MICH 49

2nd & 2Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.68

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 16 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 3 yds to the ECU 32

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 4 yds to the ECU 28

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.57

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the ECU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to AJ Barner

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.60

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 11 yds to the ECU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the ECU 15

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman Wilson

3rd & 11Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +3.30

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 15 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jhari Patterson run for 1 yd to the ECU 24

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jaylen Johnson

4th & 8Punt+5 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 45 yds , Jake Thaw returns for 5 yds to the MICH 18

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 22

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.79

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 7 yds to the MICH 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MICH 34

2nd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.67

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 14 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.91

Donovan Edwards run for 14 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.78

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for no gain to the ECU 38

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Corum,Blake rush left for 4 yards gain to the ECU34 (Nash,Dontavius) PENALTY MICH Holding (Nugent,Drake) 10 yards from ECU38 to ECU48. NO PLAY.

2nd & 20Penalty+15 yds

(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun McCarthy,J.J. pass incomplete deep right to Moore,Frederick PENALTY ECU Targeting (Powers,Jack) 15 yards from ECU48 to ECU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.31

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 15 yds to the ECU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY MICH False Start (Barner,AJ) 5 yards from ECU18 to ECU23. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.93

Donovan Edwards run for 10 yds to the ECU 13 for a 1ST down East Carolina Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Julius Wood) to the ECU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the ECU 2

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the ECU 2

3rd & 2Penalty+2 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards,Donovan rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ECU01 (Edwards III,Michael) PENALTY ECU Offside (Edwards III,Michael) 1 yard from ECU02 to ECU01. NO PLAY. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field has been overturned. The player didn't cross the goalline (OVERTURNED PLAY: (00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Edwards rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ECU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:56 PENALTY ECU Offside declined).

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the ECU 1

4th & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 yds

J.J. McCarthy run for 2 yds to the ECU 3 J.J. McCarthy fumbled, recovered by J.J. Mccarthy

1st & 10Penalty-27 yds

(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Garcia,Mason pass complete deep left to Garner,Jarett for 27 yards to the ECU30, End Of Play PENALTY ECU Pass Interference (Garner,Jarett) 1 yard from ECU03 to ECU02. NO PLAY.

1st & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.18

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECU 3

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Jaylen Johnson

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Marlon Gunn Jr.

4th & 10Punt+8 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 43 yds , Karmello English returns for 8 yds to the ECU 38

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the ECU 36

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

(13:54) PENALTY MICH Encroachment 5 yards from ECU36 to ECU41. NO PLAY.

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Davis Warren pass incomplete to Max Bredeson

3rd & 13Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.57

Kalel Mullings run for 12 yds to the ECU 29

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY MICH False Start (El-Hadi,Giovanni) 5 yards from ECU29 to ECU34. NO PLAY.

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+52 yds

James Turner 52 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Mason Garcia run for 5 yds to the ECU 39

2nd & 5Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.47

Javious Bond run for 12 yds to the MICH 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Mason Garcia pass complete to Javious Bond for 7 yds to the MICH 42

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Javious Bond run for 1 yd to the MICH 43

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.44

Mason Garcia pass complete to Jarett Garner for 5 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Mason Garcia pass complete to Jarett Garner for 7 yds to the MICH 31

2nd & 3Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.08

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 13 yds to the MICH 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the MICH 15

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

(07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Garcia,Mason pass complete short middle to Calhoun,Shane for 2 yards to the MICH13 (Graham,Mason) PENALTY ECU Holding (Pearce,Richard) 10 yards from MICH15 to MICH25. NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Antonio Ferguson

3rd & 17Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.00

Mason Garcia run for 11 yds to the MICH 14

4th & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -3.55

Mason Garcia run for 1 yd to the MICH 13

4th & 6Penalty0 yds

East Carolina Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Benjamin Hall run for 1 yd to the MICH 14

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.18

Benjamin Hall run for 1 yd to the MICH 15

3rd & 8Penalty+15 yds

(05:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Warren,Davis pass incomplete short middle to Moore,Frederick broken up by King,Devon PENALTY ECU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (King,Devon) 15 yards from MICH15 to MICH30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Davis Warren run for 8 yds to the MICH 22

2nd & 18Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.11

CJ Stokes run for 7 yds to the MICH 29

3rd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.16

CJ Stokes run for 1 yd to the MICH 28

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Josh Murphy at the ECU 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.20

Mason Garcia pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 13 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Mason Garcia pass complete to Javious Bond for 5 yds to the ECU 46

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.79

Mason Garcia run for 5 yds to the MICH 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Mason Garcia pass complete to Gerald Green for 8 yds to the MICH 41

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Mason Garcia run for 4 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Mason Garcia pass complete to Jarett Garner for 5 yds to the MICH 32

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Mason Garcia pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 7 yds to the MICH 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Shane Calhoun

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.49

Mason Garcia pass complete to Gerald Green for 9 yds to the MICH 16

3rd & 1Field Goal Good+33 yds

Andrew Conrad 33 yd FG GOOD

Situational Analysis

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
37%
19 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
67%
9 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
43%
28 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
44%
9 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
4th