Skip to main content
← Back to GamesDec 17, 2022Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

South Dakota State by 7.8

Home Win Probability

South Dakota State 66%

Market (Bovada)

South Dakota State -4

Edge: South Dakota State -4 (3.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 17, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Montana State
633618
South Dakota State
14148339

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-614-621-628-628-936-936-1239-18
South Dakota StateMontana State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SDSMSSDSMSSDSMSSDSMSMSSDSMSSDSMSSDSMSSDSMSTD575ydTD1067ydTD1279ydPUNT827ydTD380ydPUNT3-1ydTD985ydEND645ydPUNT59ydTD780ydFG66ydPUNT614ydDOWNS44ydFG647ydTD966ydPUNT32ydUncategorized652yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Montana State and South Dakota State
StatisticMontana StateSouth Dakota State
Passing15-2411-16
Pass Yards223192
Rush Yards52270
Total Yards275462
Turnovers00
3rd Down3-114-8
Penalties4-203-20
Possession27:1228:18

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Montana State
passing
Tommy Mellott
11/18, 174 YDS
rushing
Isaiah Ifanse
7 CAR, 28 YDS
receiving
Clevan Thomas
4 REC, 74 YDS
South Dakota State
passing
Mark Gronowski
10/13, 189 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Isaiah Davis
16 CAR, 158 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jaxon Janke
3 REC, 74 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Isaiah Davis run for 22 yds to the SDkSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Tucker Kraft for 7 yds to the MntSt 46

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Mark Gronowski run for 7 yds to the MntSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Isaiah Davis run for 3 yds to the MntSt 36

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +3.40

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Tucker Kraft for 36 yds for a TD, (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Sean Chambers run for 4 yds to the MntSt 37

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Willie Patterson for 4 yds to the MntSt 41

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.63

Sean Chambers run for 6 yds to the MntSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.80

Tommy Mellott sacked by Adam Bock for a loss of 3 yards to the MntSt 44

2nd & 13Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.84

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 19 yds to the SDkSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +1.36

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 33 yds to the SDkSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Sean Chambers run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Sean Chambers run for no gain to the SDkSt 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Sean Chambers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Amar Johnson run for 7 yds to the SDkSt 28

2nd & 3Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.60

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 18 yds to the SDkSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Tucker Kraft

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Mark Gronowski run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.09

Mark Gronowski run for 6 yds to the MntSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Isaiah Davis run for 1 yd to the MntSt 43

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Amar Johnson run for 4 yds to the MntSt 39

3rd & 5Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.71

Isaiah Davis run for 20 yds to the MntSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Isaiah Davis run for 6 yds to the MntSt 13

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Isaiah Davis run for 7 yds to the MntSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.15

Isaiah Davis run for 5 yds to the MntSt 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd for a TD, (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Isaiah Ifanse run for 7 yds to the MntSt 31 Isaiah Ifanse fumbled, recovered by MntSt Isaiah Ifanse

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tommy Mellott run for no gain to the MntSt 31

3rd & 3Penalty0 yds

Mellott, Tommy pass incomplete to Snell, Derryk, PENALTY SODAKOTAST pass interference (Stalbird, Isaiah) 0 yards to the MONTANAST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MONTANAST.

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, False Start (Jacob Kettels) to the MntSt 41

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Isaiah Ifanse run for 3 yds to the MntSt 44

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the MntSt 46

3rd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.47

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Willie Patterson for 24 yds to the SDkSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Tommy Mellott run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 29

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the SDkSt 34

2nd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tommy Mellott run for no gain to the SDkSt 34

3rd & 14Penalty-5 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the SDkSt 39

3rd & 19Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Elijah Elliott run for 5 yds to the SDkSt 34

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 34 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.24

Mark Gronowski run for 16 yds to the SDkSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.91

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Amar Johnson for 23 yds to the MntSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+41 ydsPPA +3.24

Isaiah Davis run for 41 yds for a TD, (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Isaiah Ifanse run for no gain to the MntSt 45

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tommy Mellott run for 4 yds to the MntSt 49

3rd & 6Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.38

Tommy Mellott sacked by Caleb Sanders and Reece Winkelman for a loss of 5 yards to the MntSt 44

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 41 yds, downed at the SDkSt 15

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Mark Gronowski run for 9 yds to the SDkSt 24

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Isaiah Davis run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Tucker Kraft for 19 yds to the SDkSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Mark Gronowski run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 48

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Amar Johnson run for 5 yds to the MntSt 47

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.19

Amar Johnson run for no gain to the MntSt 47

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.20

Tucker Kraft run for 3 yds to the MntSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Isaiah Davis run for 6 yds to the MntSt 38

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +3.12

Amar Johnson run for 38 yds for a TD (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.40

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Derryk Snell for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +1.22

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ravi Alston for 30 yds to the SDkSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Ravi Alston

2nd & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.48

Tommy Mellott sacked by Cade Terveer for a loss of 11 yards to the SDkSt 31

3rd & 21Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.27

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Derryk Snell for 11 yds to the SDkSt 20

4th & 10Field Goal Good+37 yds

Blake Glessner 37 yd FG GOOD

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Tommy Mellott run for 7 yds to the MntSt 39

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.55

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 6 yds to the MntSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Tommy Mellott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MntSt 44

2nd & 11Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.17

Tommy Mellott run for a loss of 3 yards to the MntSt 41

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Derryk Snell

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jadon Janke at the SDkSt 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +3.09

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 38 yds to the MntSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.48

Isaiah Davis run for 12 yds to the MntSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Isaiah Davis pass incomplete to Mark Gronowski

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Isaiah Davis run for 3 yds to the MntSt 27

3rd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.04

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 10 yds to the MntSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Tucker Kraft for 7 yds to the MntSt 10

2nd & 3Penalty+5 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ty Okada) to the MntSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Amar Johnson for 5 yds for a TD (Mark Gronowski pass to Jadon Janke for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Derryk Snell for 6 yds to the SDkSt 19

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Tommy Mellott run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Tommy Mellott run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDkSt 16

2nd & 11Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.76

Tommy Mellott run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDkSt 19

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Treyton Pickering

4th & 14Field Goal Good+36 yds

Blake Glessner 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Isaiah Davis run for 7 yds to the SDkSt 33

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 34

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.19

Isaiah Davis run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Mark Gronowski run for 5 yds to the SDkSt 42

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.30

Amar Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDkSt 41

3rd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.69

Mark Gronowski run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDkSt 40

4th & 7Punt+27 yds

Hunter Dustman punt for 40 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 27 yds to the MntSt 47

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Isaiah Ifanse run for 6 yds to the SDkSt 47

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Ravi Alston

3rd & 4Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.55

Tommy Mellott run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line

4th & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Ryan Lonergan pass complete to Taco Dowler for 1 yd to the SDkSt 49

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.22

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 26 yds to the MntSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.65

Isaiah Davis run for 19 yds to the MntSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Tucker Kraft

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Isaiah Davis run for 2 yds to the MntSt 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Canyon Bauer

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 yds

Hunter Dustman 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Willie Patterson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.95

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 10 yds to the MntSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Tommy Mellott run for 3 yds to the MntSt 47

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Willie Patterson

3rd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.84

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 16 yds to the SDkSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Treyton Pickering

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Caden Johnson) to the SDkSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Isaiah Ifanse run for 8 yds to the SDkSt 14

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.33

Tommy Mellott run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Tommy Mellott run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Amar Johnson run for 4 yds to the MntSt 38

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, False Start (Zach Heins) to the MntSt 43

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Rudy Voss pass complete to Amar Johnson for 3 yds to the MntSt 40

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Rudy Voss pass incomplete to Jaxon Janke

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Hunter Dustman punt for 24 yds, fair catch by TEAM at the MntSt 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.24

Sean Austin pass complete to Coy Steel for 18 yds to the MntSt 34 for a 1ST down

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Sean Austin run for 4 yds to the MntSt 38

4th & 6Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.76

Sean Austin pass complete to Ravi Alston for 22 yds to the SDkSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Sean Austin pass complete to Willie Patterson for 8 yds to the SDkSt 32

Situational Analysis

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
52%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

South Dakota State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
67%
3 plays
74%
23 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play