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← Back to GamesDec 29, 2022Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Oregon by 8.8

Home Win Probability

North Carolina 29%

Market (consensus)

North Carolina +13

Edge: North Carolina +13 (4.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 29, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
OregonOregon
7701428
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
7140627

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-714-1421-1424-1427-2127-28
North CarolinaOregon

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NCORENCORENCORENCORENCOREORENCORENCORENCORENCORENCPUNT3-11ydTD654ydTD1244ydMISS841ydMISS1353ydTD480ydTD1075ydTO959ydTD149ydEND10ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT31ydDOWNS1345ydPUNT615ydPUNT617ydFG1041ydTD561ydFG1143ydTD879ydEND326yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Oregon and North Carolina
StatisticOregonNorth Carolina
Passing23-3018-35
Pass Yards205206
Rush Yards209116
Total Yards414322
Turnovers10
3rd Down6-125-15
Penalties5-395-55
Possession27:1132:49

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Oregon
passing
Bo Nix
23/30, 205 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Mar'Keise Irving
13 CAR, 149 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Terrance Ferguson
5 REC, 84 YDS
defense
North Carolina
passing
Drake Maye
18/35, 206 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Elijah Green
17 CAR, 50 YDS
receiving
Kobe Paysour
7 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari Morales

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27

3rd & 8Sack-13 ydsPPA -0.38

Drake Maye sacked by Mase Funa for a loss of 13 yards to the NCaro 14

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Delgado at the Oregn 46

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.21

Bucky Irving run for 9 yds to the NCaro 45

2nd & 1Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.53

Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 46

3rd & 2Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.63

Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 14 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Bucky Irving run for 7 yds to the NCaro 25

2nd & 3Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.29

Bucky Irving run for 23 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Bucky Irving 2 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the Oregn 42

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.10

Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 11 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Green, Elijah rush for 17 yards to the OREGON14, PENALTY UNC holding (Copenhaver, John) 10 yards to the OREGON41, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Fumble Recovery (Own)+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the Oregn 31 Drake Maye fumbled, forced by Jamal Hill, recovered by NCaro John Copenhaver , return for 4 yds to the Oregn 31

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the Oregn 29

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Drake Maye pass complete to Andre Greene Jr. for 7 yds to the Oregn 22

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.86

Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the Oregn 15

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. Jones

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 7 yds to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the Oregn 6

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson Nesbit, broken up by Trikweze Bridges

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.82

Andre Greene Jr. 6 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Jordan James run for 13 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 11 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Jordan James run for 6 yds to the NCaro 40

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.42

Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 10 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.57

Bo Nix sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 36

2nd & 16Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 7 yds to the NCaro 29

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Chase Cota, broken up by Power Echols

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+47 yds

Camden Lewis 47 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Elijah Green run for no gain to the NCaro 30

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 6 yds to the NCaro 36

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.69

Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Elijah Green run for 7 yds to the NCaro 48

2nd & 3Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.09

Drake Maye run for 20 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the Oregn 28

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Drake Maye pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe Paysour

4th & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.88

Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 11 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.14

Drake Maye sacked by Jeffrey Bassa for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 25

2nd & 18Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.40

D.J. Jones run for 8 yds to the Oregn 17

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. Jones

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+34 yds

Noah Burnette 34 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Noah Whittington run for 8 yds to the Oregn 28

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the Oregn 34

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+66 ydsPPA +5.97

Bucky Irving 66 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

George Pettaway run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.04

Elijah Green run for 7 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 7 yds to the NCaro 45

3rd & 1Penalty+5 yds

Maye, Drake rush for 4 yards to the UNC49, PENALTY OREGON substitution infraction 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.12

Drake Maye run for 24 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe Paysour

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 11 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 14

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. Jones

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +3.15

Bryson Nesbit 14 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 11 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 5 yds to the Oregn 41

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Oregn 43

3rd & 3Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.84

Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 25 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Bo Nix run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.79

Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 6 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the NCaro 16

2nd & 5Pass Interception Return+40 ydsPPA -4.44

Bo Nix pass intercepted Power Echols return for 40 yds to the Oregn 49

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +3.76

Kobe Paysour 49 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Nix, Bo pass complete to Franklin, Troy for 23 yards to the OREGON48, PENALTY OREGON holding (Ferguson, Terrance) 10 yards to the OREGON15, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.38

Bucky Irving run for 10 yds to the Oregn 25

0th & 20End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.93

Bucky Irving run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 24

2nd & 12Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.26

Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for no gain to the Oregn 24

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Troy Franklin

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Adam Barry punt for 46 yds, downed at the NCaro 30

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the NCaro 31

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari Morales, broken up by Steve Stephens IV

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. Jones, broken up by Brandon Dorlus

4th & 9Punt-4 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 37 yds , Kris Hutson returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 28

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.90

Bucky Irving run for 10 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.61

Bucky Irving run for 8 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the NCaro 47

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.17

Noah Whittington run for no gain to the NCaro 47

3rd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.78

Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 5 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Noah Whittington run for no gain to the NCaro 42

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the NCaro 38

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.54

Jordan James run for 8 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Bo Nix pass complete to Cam McCormick for 2 yds to the NCaro 28

2nd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.67

Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for no gain to the NCaro 28

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.71

Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the NCaro 27

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.52

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Chase Cota

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.95

Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 8 yds to the NCaro 35

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.19

Elijah Green run for no gain to the NCaro 35

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.32

Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 5 yds to the NCaro 44

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe Paysour

3rd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.96

Drake Maye run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 42

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 57 yds, downed at the Oregn 1

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the Oregn 3

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.19

Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 7 yds to the Oregn 10

3rd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.32

Noah Whittington run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 8

4th & 3Penalty+5 yds

Barry, Adam punt 57 yards to the UNC35, downed, PENALTY UNC substitution infraction 5 yards to the OREGON13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Bo Nix pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the Oregn 18

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Terrance Ferguson, broken up by Cedric Gray

4th & 5Punt+16 yds

Adam Barry punt for 41 yds , George Pettaway returns for 16 yds to the Oregn 43

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the Oregn 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 3 yds to the Oregn 36

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson Nesbit, broken up by Casey Rogers

4th & 3Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.22

Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 16 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the Oregn 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.48

Drake Maye pass complete to D.J. Jones for 10 yds to the Oregn 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the Oregn 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Drake Maye pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.16

Drake Maye run for 7 yds to the Oregn 2

4th & 2Field Goal Good+19 yds

Noah Burnette 19 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 6 yds to the Oregn 45

2nd & 4Penalty+15 yds

Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Franklin, Troy (Cavazos, Lejond), PENALTY UNC pass interference (Cavazos, Lejond) 15 yards to the UNC40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +0.68

Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 30 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the NCaro 6

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Nix, Bo pass complete to Hutson, Kris for 6 yards to the UNC0, PENALTY OREGON ineligible downfield on pass (Harper II, Marcus) 5 yards to the UNC11, NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 5 yds to the NCaro 6

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.82

Troy Franklin 6 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe Paysour

2nd & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.87

Elijah Green run for 7 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jahlil Florence) to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.71

Drake Maye pass complete to Andre Greene Jr. for 13 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Elijah Green run for 7 yds to the Oregn 28

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the Oregn 26

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.76

Drake Maye run for no gain to the Oregn 26

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.04

Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.78

Elijah Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 27

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. Jones, broken up by Trikweze Bridges

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari Morales

4th & 13Field Goal Good+44 yds

Noah Burnette 44 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 5 yds to the Oregn 26

2nd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.19

Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 11 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.08

Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 28 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 6 yds to the NCaro 29

2nd & 4Penalty+15 yds

Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Franklin, Troy (Boykins, DeAndre), PENALTY UNC pass interference (Boykins, DeAndre) 15 yards to the UNC14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the NCaro 8

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Troy Franklin

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the NCaro 6

4th & 2Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.93

Chase Cota 6 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 10 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+4 yds

TEAM pass incomplete, PENALTY OREGON substitution infraction 4 yards to the UNC47, NO PLAY.

1st & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.11

Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 12 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Drake Maye pass incomplete

Situational Analysis

Oregon

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
63%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
57%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
67%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
31%
26 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
17%
6 plays
55%
11 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
50%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
3 plays
100%
1 play